Machine‐Learning Based Multi‐Layer Soil Moisture Forecasts—An Application Case Study of the Montana 2017 Flash Drought DOI Creative Commons
Jinyang Du, John S. Kimball, Kelsey Jencso

et al.

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 60(10)

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

Abstract Soil moisture (SM) is an essential climate variable, governing land‐atmosphere interactions, runoff generation, and vegetation growth productivity. Timely forecasts of SM spatial distribution vertical profiles are needed for early detection prediction potential droughts. However, previous studies have primarily concentrated on historical or near real‐time soil mapping, with less effort devoted to the development integration forecast components within drought assessment systems. A satellite‐driven machine‐learning approach was developed in this study build complex relationships between diversified predictor data sets situ multi‐layer measurements from Montana Mesonet, a regionally dense environmental station network US upper Missouri Columbia basins. The resulting 30‐m daily predictions showed strong performance against 4‐, 8‐ 20‐inch layers, 1‐ 2‐week lead times ( R > 0.91; RMSE ≤ 0.047 cm 3 /cm ). model subsequently applied entire region, deficit both successfully depicted onset, progression, termination phases 2017 flash drought, which not effectively identified prevailing operational system capable delineating local scale heterogeneity, could be extended predict other critical water cycle variables, potentially enhancing future through multivariate assessments benefiting resource management, agricultural practices, provision ecosystem services.

Language: Английский

Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season in Canada DOI Creative Commons
Piyush Jain, Quinn E. Barber, Stephen Taylor

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Aug. 20, 2024

Abstract The 2023 wildfire season in Canada was unprecedented its scale and intensity, spanning from mid-April to late October across much of the forested regions Canada. Here, we summarize main causes impacts this exceptional season. record-breaking total area burned (~15 Mha) can be attributed several environmental factors that converged early season: snowmelt, multiannual drought conditions western Canada, rapid transition eastern Anthropogenic climate change enabled sustained extreme fire weather conditions, as mean May–October temperature over 2.2 °C warmer than 1991–2020 average. were profound with more 200 communities evacuated, millions exposed hazardous air quality smoke, unmatched demands on fire-fighting resources. not only set new records, but highlights increasing challenges posed by wildfires

Language: Английский

Citations

38

Canada Under Fire – Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season DOI Open Access
Piyush Jain, Quinn E. Barber, Stephen Taylor

et al.

Authorea (Authorea), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 28, 2024

The 2023 wildfire season in Canada was unprecedented its scale and intensity. Spanning from late April to early November extending across much of the forested regions Canada, resulted a record-breaking total area burned approximately 15 million hectares, over seven times historic national annual average. impacts were profound with more than 200 communities evacuated (approximately 232,000 people), periods dense smoke that caused significant public health concerns, demands on fire-fighting resources. exceptional can be attributed several environmental factors converged enable extreme fire danger country. These included snowmelt, interannual drought conditions western rapid transition eastern Canada. Furthermore, mean May-October temperature staggering 2.2°C warmer normal (1991-2020), enabling sustained weather throughout season. led larger proportion very large fires (> 50,000 hectares), many having for months spring into fall. Fires started May or June accounted two-thirds burned. Overall, characterized by major societal impacts, setting new records highlighting increasing challenges posed wildfires

Language: Английский

Citations

13

Unraveling phenological and stomatal responses to flash drought and implications for water and carbon budgets DOI Creative Commons
Nicholas K. Corak, Jason A. Otkin, Trent W. Ford

et al.

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 28(8), P. 1827 - 1851

Published: April 22, 2024

Abstract. In recent years, extreme droughts in the United States have increased frequency and severity, underlining a need to improve our understanding of vegetation resilience adaptation. Flash are events marked by rapid dry down soils due lack precipitation, high temperatures, air. These also associated with reduced preparation, response, management time windows before during drought, exacerbating their detrimental impacts on people food systems. Improvements actionable information for flash drought informed atmospheric land surface processes, including responses feedbacks from vegetation. Phenologic state, or growth stage, is an important metric modeling how modulates land–atmosphere interactions. Reduced stomatal conductance leads cascading effects carbon water fluxes. We investigate uncertainty phenology regulation propagates through non-drought periods coupling hydrology model predictive model. assess role partitioning carbon, water, energy fluxes carry out comparison against periods. selected study sites Kansas, USA, that were impacted 2012 AmeriFlux eddy covariance towers which provide ground observations compare estimates. Results show compounding precipitation vapor pressure deficit (VPD) distinguish other High VPD shuts modeled conductance, resulting rates evapotranspiration (ET), gross primary productivity (GPP), use efficiency (WUE) fall below those average conditions. Model estimates GPP ET decrease similar what observed winter, indicating plant function dormant months. results implications improving predictions

Language: Английский

Citations

11

The propagation from atmospheric flash drought to soil flash drought and its changes in a warmer climate DOI
Feng Ma, Xing Yuan

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 132877 - 132877

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1

Investigating the Response of Vegetation to Flash Droughts by Using Cross-Spectral Analysis and an Evapotranspiration-Based Drought Index DOI Creative Commons
Peng Zhan Li, Jia Li, Jing Lu

et al.

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(9), P. 1564 - 1564

Published: April 28, 2024

Flash droughts tend to cause severe damage agriculture due their characteristics of sudden onset and rapid intensification. Early detection the response vegetation flash is utmost importance in mitigating effects droughts, as it can provide a scientific basis for establishing an early warning system. The commonly used method determining time drought, based on index or correlation between precipitation anomaly growth anomaly, leads late irreversible drought vegetation, which may not be sufficient use analyzing earning. evapotranspiration-based (ET-based) indices are effective indicator identifying monitoring drought. This study proposes novel approach that applies cross-spectral analysis ET-based index, i.e., Evaporative Stress Anomaly Index (ESAI), forcing vegetation-based Normalized Vegetation (NVAI), response, both from medium-resolution remote sensing data, estimate lag vitality status An experiment was carried out North China during March–September period 2001–2020 using products at 1 km spatial resolution. results show average water availability estimated by over 5.9 days, shorter than measured widely (26.5 days). main difference phase lies fundamental processes behind definitions two methods, subtle dynamic fluctuation signature signal (vegetation-based index) correlates with (ET-based versus impact indicated negative NDVI anomaly. varied types irrigation conditions. rainfed cropland, irrigated grassland, forest 5.4, 5.8, 6.1, 6.9 respectively. Forests have longer grasses crops deeper root systems, mitigate impacts droughts. Our method, innovative earlier impending impacts, rather waiting occur. information detected stage help decision makers developing more timely strategies ecosystems.

Language: Английский

Citations

4

Drought-induced stress on rainfed and irrigated agriculture: Insights from multi-source satellite-derived ecological indicators DOI Creative Commons
Yanan Chen, Ying Wang, Chaoyang Wu

et al.

Agricultural Water Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 307, P. 109249 - 109249

Published: Dec. 19, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

4

Spatial heterogeneity of flash drought events in Central Asia and their link with large-scale circulation DOI
Yanchao Zhu, Peng Yang, Jun Xia

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 63(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Ecohydrological response of a forested Headwater catchment to a flash drought in the Southeastern U.S DOI Creative Commons
Jeffrey W. Riley, Luke Pangle, Michael A. Forster

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 132658 - 132658

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Gross primary productivity is more sensitive to accelerated flash droughts DOI Creative Commons
Yangyang JING, Shuo Wang, Pak Wai Chan

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: Jan. 17, 2025

Flash droughts, characterized by their rapid onset, substantially affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, the sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to development flash droughts under varying vegetation conditions remains poorly understood. Here we investigate response speed drought onset for different plant functional types, considering decline rate root-zone soil moisture and standardized gross primary anomaly. Our findings reveal a significant increase approximately 10% in proportion 1- 2-pentad (5 10 days) leading negative anomalies during 2001–2018. Furthermore, while at higher rates, they do not promptly respond on shorter timescale faster-onset compared slower-onset droughts. Vegetation types with shallower root systems exhibit sensitivities suggesting an escalating threat ecosystems changing climate. Fast-onset have become more frequent between 2001 2018, faster is associated larger impacts productivity, suggests analysis observation-based data.

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Monitoring of extreme rainfall events and drought severity using drought indices in the southeast semi-arid areas of Karnataka state, India DOI Creative Commons

N Harishnaika,

M Arpitha,

S. A. Ahmed

et al.

Results in Earth Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 3, P. 100066 - 100066

Published: Jan. 31, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0