Counterfactual analysis of extreme events in urban flooding scenarios

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 57, P. 102166 - 102166

Published: Jan. 2, 2025

Language: Английский

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Improving flood hazard susceptibility assessment by integrating hydrodynamic modeling with remote sensing and ensemble machine learning

Natural Hazards, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 11, 2025

Abstract Floods are natural disasters with significant economic and infrastructural impacts. Assessing flood susceptibility in mountainous urban regions is particularly challenging due to the complicated interaction which structures terrain affect behavior. This study employs two ensemble machine learning algorithms, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) Random Forest (RF), develop maps for Hunza-Nagar region, has been experiencing frequent flooding past three decades. An unsteady flow simulation carried out HEC-RAS utilizing a 100-year return period hydrograph as an input boundary condition, output of provided spatial inundation extents necessary developing inventory. Ten explanatory factors, including climatic, geological, geomorphological features namely elevation, slope, curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI), normalized difference vegetation (NDVI), land use cover (LULC), rainfall, lithology, distance roads rivers considered mapping. For inventory, random sampling technique adopted create repository non-flood points, incorporating ten geo-environmental conditioning factors. The models’ accuracy assessed using area under curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristics (ROC). prediction rate AUC values 0.912 RF 0.893 XGBoost, also demonstrating superior performance accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, kappa evaluation metrics. Consequently, model selected represent map area. resulting will assist national disaster management infrastructure development authorities identifying high susceptible zones carrying early mitigation actions future floods.

Language: Английский

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Geospatial modelling of floods: a literature review

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 37(11), P. 4109 - 4128

Published: July 10, 2023

Language: Английский

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Can the 2D shallow water equations model flow intrusion into buildings during urban floods?

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 619, P. 129231 - 129231

Published: Feb. 8, 2023

The multiple flow paths existing in urban environments lead to complex fields during flooding. Modelling these processes with three-dimensional numerical models may be scientifically sound; however, such are computationally demanding. To ascertain whether floods can modelled faster tools, this study investigated for the first time capacity of 2D shallow water equations (SWE) modelling patterns within and around blocks openings, i.e., involving exchanges between flows streets (e.g., through alleys leading courtyards or broken windows doors). Laboratory experiments idealized were simulated two academic SWE models, their most notable difference being parameterization eddy viscosity. Specifically, model had a turbulence closure based on depth friction velocity while second depth-averaged k-ε closure. Thirteen layouts considered steady five unsteady flow. Both depths accurately cases. discharge distribution velocities predicted lower accuracy, particularly large open spaces. average deviation at outlets was 2.5% 7.3% model, respectively. For cases, only tested. It well pattern falling limb flood wave, it did not reproduce all recirculation zones rising limb. peak discharges an 6.7% 8.6%, Even though some aspects setup 3D, findings support models.

Language: Английский

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Assessment of urban flood resilience based on a systematic framework

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 150, P. 110230 - 110230

Published: April 14, 2023

Urban flooding can seriously threaten urban ecological security and human life, therefore flood resilience (UFR) is important for safety stability. To comprehensively evaluate system performance during the entire process of rainfall, runoff, flooding, drainage, we developed a systematic framework UFR assessment covering runoff simulation, estimation, assessment, which broadly corresponded to phases resistance, adaptation, recovery. The in recovery was simulated assessed using curve (SPC) technically combining with hybrid model while mainly considering total simulation time inundated proportion SPC. Because extent be influenced by climate change rate urbanization, chose corresponding representative factors precipitation infiltration considered 21 scenarios (seven rainfall return periods three rates) quantified according performance. effectiveness this demonstrated application typical highly urbanized area (i.e., Dongguan, China). following results were derived: (1) under pessimistic scenario S19) would nearly four times greater than that optimistic S3); (2) values Dongguan 0.9494–0.9863, locating at high very level; (3) lowest value 0.6552 Shuixiang New City district; (4) period main factor influencing relatively short S1–S9), principal long S10–S21). proposed could applied other cities large-scale regions like agglomerations provinces.

Language: Английский

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The quantitative assessment of impact of pumping capacity and LID on urban flood susceptibility based on machine learning

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 617, P. 129116 - 129116

Published: Jan. 12, 2023

Language: Английский

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Review of Experimental Investigations of Dam-Break Flows over Fixed Bottom

Water, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(6), P. 1229 - 1229

Published: March 21, 2023

Laboratory experiments of dam-break flows are extensively used in investigations geophysical involving flood waves, to provide insight into relevant aspects the physics process and collect experimental data for validating numerical models. A flow is a typical example highly unsteady free surface with high reproducibility. Indeed, can be repeated several times under same test conditions obtaining large amounts different types (possibly using various measuring techniques) that combined single rich dataset. Moreover, laboratory tests on widely considered valuable benchmark validation models, since field from historical events scarce, sparse, uncertain. However, no systematic review existing related datasets available literature comprehensive overview considered, techniques used, collected. This article aims fill this gap, focusing schematic idealized setups fixed, non-erodible bed. In particular, help researchers modelers to: (a) select most appropriate their models; (b) facilitate access databases by indicating bibliographic references; (c) identify specific challenging worthy further research; (d) support development new or improved technologies mitigation impact waves. The references reviewed organized tables according purposes investigation, information provided conditions, datasets, accessibility. Finally, suggestions future research provided.

Language: Английский

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Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 24(5), P. 1721 - 1740

Published: May 14, 2024

Abstract. In the context of natural hazard risk quantification and modeling interactions, some literature separates “Level I” (or occurrence) interactions from II” consequence) interactions. The Level I occur inherently due to nature hazards, independently presence physical assets. such cases, one event triggers or modifies occurrence another (e.g., flooding heavy rain, liquefaction landslides triggered by an earthquake), thus creating a dependency between features characterizing events. They differ II which instead through impacts/consequences on assets/components systems accumulation damage social impacts earthquake sequences, earthquake-induced collapse retaining structure). Multi-hazard life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis aims quantify consequences repair costs, downtime, casualty rates) throughout system’s service should account for both available generally considers – focus this study mainly defining relevant taxonomies, often qualitatively, without providing computational framework simulate sequence events incorporating identified interrelations among them. This paper addresses gap, proposing approaches associated with different types It describes simulation-based method generating multi-hazard sets (i.e., cycle) based theory competing Poisson processes. proposed approach incorporates in sequential Monte Carlo sampling method. outputs that can be integrated into LCCon frameworks interacting consequences. An application several is presented illustrate potential

Language: Английский

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How suitable are current approaches to simulate flood risk under future urbanization trends?

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(7), P. 073003 - 073003

Published: June 3, 2024

Abstract Flood risk in urban areas will increase massively under future urbanization and climate change. Urban flood models have been increasingly applied to assess impacts of on risk. For this purpose, different methodological approaches developed order reflect the complexity dynamics growth. To state-of-the art application scenarios, we conducted a structured literature review systematically analyzed 93 publications with 141 case studies. Our shows that hydrological hydrodynamic are most commonly used simulate Future is mostly considered as sprawl through adjustment land use maps roughness parameters. A low number additionally consider transitions structures densification processes their scenarios. High-resolution physically based advanced well suited for describing quantifiable data-rich contexts. In regions limited data, argue reducing level detail increasing patterns should be improve quality projections urbanization. also call development integrative model such causal network greater explanatory power enable processing qualitative data.

Language: Английский

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Using a multiphysics coupling-oriented flood modelling approach to assess urban flooding under various regulation scenarios combined with rainstorms and tidal effects

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 132189 - 132189

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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