Quantifying the relative contributions of climate change and ENSO to flood occurrence in Bangladesh DOI Creative Commons
Shahab Uddin, Menaka Revel, Prakat Modi

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 18(10), P. 104027 - 104027

Published: Sept. 15, 2023

Abstract Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to flood hazards, and its risk projected increase with global warming. In addition climate change, internal variation, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influences flooding in many rivers worldwide. However, impact of variability on remains unclear due limited observations. Here, we assess impacts ENSO change occurrence using a large-ensemble simulation dataset river model (CaMa-Flood). After separating 6000 years (100-member ensemble simulations for 1950–2010) into Niño, La Niña, neutral years, calculated extent which each stage increased probability relative state fraction attributable method. addition, estimated historical past through comparison without Under no-global-warming climate, Niña 10 year return period at Hardinge Bridge Ganges River by 38% compared years. The influence or Niño Brahmaputra Bahadurabad station negligible. Historical warming River, their confluence 59%, 44%, 55%, respectively. decreased simulation, likely conflation signals, no significant correlation between was detected when only small-ensemble were used. These findings suggest that use datasets essential precise attribution Bangladesh.

Language: Английский

Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts DOI Creative Commons
Zengchao Hao, Fanghua Hao,

Youlong Xia

et al.

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 235, P. 104241 - 104241

Published: Nov. 8, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

139
Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events DOI Creative Commons
Kumar Puran Tripathy, Sourav Mukherjee, Ashok K. Mishra

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(28)

Published: July 3, 2023

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered increased attention due to their significant impacts on agriculture, energy, water resources, ecosystems. We quantify the projected future shifts in CDHW characteristics (such as frequency, duration, severity) continued anthropogenic warming relative baseline recent observed period (1982 2019). combine weekly information for 26 climate divisions across globe, employing historical model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 GCMs three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Statistically trends are revealed both simulated (2020 2099). East Africa, North Australia, America, Central Asia, Europe, Southeastern South America show greatest increase frequency through late 21st century. The Southern Hemisphere displays a greater occurrence, while Northern severity. Regional warmings play role changes most regions. These findings implications minimizing of extreme developing adaptation mitigation policies cope with risk water, food sectors critical geographical

Language: Английский

Citations

136
The role of climate change and urban development on compound dry-hot extremes across US cities DOI Creative Commons
Mahshid Ghanbari, Mazdak Arabi, Matei Georgescu

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: June 14, 2023

Compound dry-hot extreme (CDHE) events pose greater risks to the environment, society, and human health than their univariate counterparts. Here, we project decadal-length changes in frequency duration of CDHE for major U.S. cities during 21st century. Using Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model coupled an urban canopy parameterization, find a considerable increase future across all under compound effect high-intensity GHG- development-induced warming. Our results indicate that while GHG-induced warming is primary driver increased events, development amplifies this should not be neglected. Furthermore, We show highest amplification expected Great Plains South, Southwest, southern part Northwest National Climate Assessment regions.

Language: Английский

Citations

45
Drought–heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review DOI
Renata Libonati, João L. Geirinhas, Patrícia S. Silva

et al.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 1517(1), P. 44 - 62

Published: Sept. 2, 2022

Abstract Climate change is drastically altering the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought‐heatwave (CDHW) episodes, which present a new challenge in environmental socioeconomic sectors. These threats are particular importance low‐income regions with growing populations, fragile infrastructure, threatened ecosystems. This review synthesizes emerging progress understanding CDHW patterns Brazil while providing insights about impacts on fire occurrence public health. Evidence mounting that heatwaves becoming increasingly linked droughts northeastern southeastern Brazil, Amazonia, Pantanal. In those regions, recent studies have begun to build better physical mechanisms behind events, such as soil moisture–atmosphere coupling, promoted by exceptional atmospheric blocking conditions. Results hint at synergy between events high activity country over last decades, most example being catastrophic 2020 fires Moreover, we show HWs were responsible for increasing mortality preterm births during record‐breaking Brazil. work paves way more in‐depth their impacts, crucial enhance adaptive capacity different Brazilian

Language: Английский

Citations

64
Three-dimensional-based global drought projection under global warming tendency DOI
Yadong Ji, Jianyu Fu, Lu Yang

et al.

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 291, P. 106812 - 106812

Published: May 16, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

30
Drought-heatwave compound events are stronger in drylands DOI Creative Commons
Chuan Wang, Zhi Li, Yaning Chen

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 42, P. 100632 - 100632

Published: Nov. 22, 2023

Climate change is exacerbating the occurrence of compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs), which pose a serious threat to human health socio-economic development. Using daily maximum temperature (Tmax) monthly self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI) dataset, The evolution patterns CDHWs wet-heatwave events, dominant drivers relative contributions in drylands humid areas from 1961 2020 were compared analyzed. results show that types are stronger than areas, growth rate was almost twice greater multi-year average intensity events by up 2.4 times. Moreover, has increased significantly past period (1961–1990) recent warm (1991–2020), heatwave threshold about 5 °C. In most drylands, contribution dominates, whereas does. compounding effects may exacerbate regionally pronounced taking into account optimal lags. study findings could provide scientific technological support actively address global climate risks.

Language: Английский

Citations

28
Deep learning with autoencoders and LSTM for ENSO forecasting DOI Creative Commons
Chibuike Chiedozie Ibebuchi, Michael B. Richman

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 62(6), P. 5683 - 5697

Published: March 22, 2024

Abstract El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the prominent recurrent climatic pattern in tropical Pacific Ocean with global impacts on regional climates. This study utilizes deep learning to predict 3.4 index by encoding non-linear sea surface temperature patterns using an autoencoder neural network. The resulting encoded identify crucial centers of action that serve as predictors ENSO mode. These are utilized for forecasting a lead time at least 6 months Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. analysis uncovers multiple dipole Pacific, anomalies both regionalized and latitudinally oriented should support single inter-tropical convergence zone modeling efforts. Leveraging these predictors, LSTM - trained monthly data from 1950 2007 tested 2008 2022 shows fidelity predicting index. captured annual cycle 0.94 correlation between actual predicted lag 12 0.91 lags 18. Additionally, 6-month predictions excel detecting extreme events, achieving 85% hit rate, outperforming 70% rate 55% prediction accuracy peaks November March, correlations ranging 0.96. average boreal spring were large 0.84, indicating method has capability decrease predictability barrier.

Language: Английский

Citations

10
Regional drivers and characteristics of multi-year droughts DOI Creative Commons

Jonna van Mourik,

Denise Ruijsch,

Karin van der Wiel

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 100748 - 100748

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Drought- and heatwave-associated compound extremes: A review of hotspots, variables, parameters, drivers, impacts, and analysis frameworks DOI Creative Commons

Mahnaz Dil Afroz,

Gang Chen, Aavudai Anandhi

et al.

Frontiers in Earth Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Feb. 3, 2023

Droughts and heatwaves are rising concerns with regard to the frequent formation of compound or concurrent extremes (CEs), which can cause greater havoc than an individual event a higher magnitude. Recently, they have been frequently detected form CEs together other events (e.g., floods, aridity, humidity events) concurrently spatiotemporal lags. Therefore, this systematic review assesses these by reviewing following aspects: CE hotspots, events, variable combinations that CEs; analyzed parameters frequency severity); large-scale modes climate variability (CV) as drivers alongside approaches relate them impacts yield loss fire risk) impact integration from 166 screened publications. Additionally, three varied analysis frameworks summarized highlight different components drought- heatwave-associated CEs, is novelty study. The vary major assessment objectives: only (event–event), driver association (event–driver), (event–impact). According review, most reported hotspots in global studies southern Africa, Australia, South America, Southeast Asia. In regional studies, several vital Iberian Peninsula, Balkans, Mediterranean Basin) reported, some not mentioned because usually report broader regions. addition, drought heatwave; heatwave stagnation) varying combination variables, namely, temperature, precipitation, their derived indices. Thus, study presents for prospective researchers.

Language: Английский

Citations

22
Longer‐ and Slower‐Moving Contiguous Heatwaves Linked to El Niño DOI Creative Commons
Sijia Wu, Ming Luo, Zhen Liu

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(11)

Published: May 29, 2024

Abstract Although it is known that the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are affected by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), unknown ENSO modulations on moving properties (e.g., distance speed) spatiotemporally contiguous heatwaves. Here, we investigate relationship between patterns We show likely more frequent, persistent, longer‐traveling, but slower‐moving during Niño than La Niña episodes. The differences in tropical influenced persistent high‐pressure anomalies. During following summers, can induce anomalous atmospheric circulation characterized an intensified subsidence over western North Pacific ascending motion Indian Oceans. These features provide favorable conditions for occurrence maintenance

Language: Английский

Citations

7