A systematic review of climate change science relevant to Australian design flood estimation

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 28(5), P. 1251 - 1285

Published: March 15, 2024

Abstract. In response to flood risk, design estimation is a cornerstone of planning, infrastructure design, setting insurance premiums, and emergency planning. Under stationary assumptions, guidance the methods used in are firmly established practice mature their theoretical foundations, but under climate change, still its infancy. Human-caused change influencing factors that contribute risk such as rainfall extremes soil moisture, there need for updated guidance. However, barrier updating translation science into practical application. For example, most pertaining historical changes focuses on examining trends annual maximum events or application non-stationary frequency analysis. Although this valuable, practice, exceedance probabilities much rarer than events, 1 % probability event even rarer, using rainfall-based procedures, at locations where few no observations streamflow. Here, we perform systematic review summarize state-of-the-art understanding impact Australian context, while also drawing international literature. addition, meta-analysis, whereby results from multiple studies combined, conducted extreme provide quantitative estimates possible future changes. This information described context contemporary facilitate inclusion practice.

Language: Английский

---

Sediment Transport Modeling in the Pasig River, Philippines Post Taal Volcano Eruption

Geosciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(2), P. 45 - 45

Published: Feb. 5, 2024

Following the eruption of Taal Volcano in January 2020 and its continuous signs unrest preceding years, this study delves into investigation sediment transport Pasig River, Philippines. The historical data total suspended solids (TSS) arsenic indicated a notable increase starting from year 2020. field measurements were conducted February March 2022, two years after eruption. Due to observed homogeneity river’s mixing, refined 1D model was developed. In study, HEC-RAS modeling software employed. calibration process using Laursen function yielded an impressive R2 value 0.9989 for post-eruption model. This predictive accuracy underscores robustness developed study’s scope further expanded by creating 2020, incorporating water quality gathered River Coordinating Management Office. simulation results showed peak TSS values 120.63 mg/L 225.15 2022 respectively. highlight probable impact geological events on dynamics within which could help manage sustain ongoing river improvements.

Language: Английский

---

Mapping tidal restrictions to support blue carbon restoration

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 949, P. 175085 - 175085

Published: July 28, 2024

Blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs), encompassing mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrasses, are vital that deliver valuable services such as sequestration, biodiversity support, coastal protection. However, these threatened by various anthropogenic factors, including tidal restrictions like levees, barriers, embankments. These structures alter the natural seawater flow, often converting into freshwater environments. Identifying assessing their suitability for restoration in areas amenable management is a crucial first step to successfully restore BCEs associated ecosystem they provide, i.e., managed realignment. This study presents novel approach detecting state of Victoria, Australia, using high-resolution LiDAR data, geospatial analysis techniques, multi-criteria scoring system. Our model identified 90 % known from an existing dataset, while also additional 118 potential restrictions, representing 35 increase. The performance revealed trade-offs between precision, recall, noise ratio when different reduction thresholds, highlighting importance selecting appropriate threshold based on project objectives. system, which considered factors proximity current land use, enabled selection hydrological restoration. results this have significant implications BCE efforts not only but more broadly across Australia globally, providing systematic identifying targeting with greatest successful projects. While low-cost user-friendly, it dependent availability data area. can make accessible researchers practitioners worldwide, allowing its adaptation application diverse regions support global restoring through

Language: Английский

---

The Influence of Future Changes in Tidal Range, Storm Surge, and Mean Sea Level on the Emergence of Chronic Flooding

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Abstract Sea‐level rise is leading to increasingly frequent coastal floods globally. Recent research shows that changes in tidal properties and storm surge magnitudes can further exacerbate sea‐level rise‐related increases flood frequencies. However, such non‐stationarity tide statistics are largely neglected existing projection methodologies. Here we develop a framework explore the effect different realizations of various sources uncertainty have on projections frequencies, including range storminess. Our methodology captures how observed rates depend surges coincide with extremes. We show higher earlier emergence chronic flooding associated larger rates, lower thresholds, skew magnitudes. Smaller thresholds decreases sea level variability lead commensurately rates. Percentagewise, amplitudes generally much impact frequencies than equivalent percentagewise several implications these findings. Firstly, understanding future local tides required fully quantify hazards. Secondly, hazard assessments may underestimate as not considered. Finally, identifying severities relevant managers imperative useable policy‐relevant for decisionmakers.

Language: Английский

---

Digitizing the Williamstown, Australia Tide‐Gauge Record Back to 1872: Insights Into Changing Extremes

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 129(8)

Published: July 30, 2024

Abstract For Williamstown tide gauge, at the northern‐most point of Port Phillip Bay (PPB), Melbourne, Victoria, registers from 1872 to 1966 and marigrams 1950 1966, were digitized extend sea‐level records back almost 100 years. Despite some vertical datum issues in early part record, data set is suitable for extreme trend analysis after removal annual mean sea level. The newly was combined with digital record produce a 2020. Analysis this revealed known problems siltation gauge stilling well associated reduction tidal range times during 1880–1895 1910–1940. A positive amplitude 0.41 ± 0.01 mm yr −1 found over 1966–2020, likely due reduced hydraulic friction narrow entrance PPB. Extreme trends examined 1872–2020 storm tides (the combination surge tide) mean, residuals subtraction predicted tides. non‐stationary Gumbel distribution time‐varying location parameter statistically significant declining −0.73 0.02 , consistent observed poleward movement surge‐producing mid‐latitude weather systems. smaller −0.40 found. These are approximately an order magnitude than current rates level rise, meaning that hazard will continue increase future. This information relevant future adaptation planning.

Language: Английский

---

Eastern Australian estuaries will transition to tidal flood regimes in coming decades

Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 2

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Abstract Tidal flooding occurs when coastal water levels exceed impact-based flood thresholds due to tides alone, under average weather conditions. Transitions tidal regimes are already underway for nuisance severities in harbours and bays expected higher coming decades. In the first such regional assessment, we show that same transition tidally forced floods can also be occur Australian estuaries with less than 0.1 m further sea-level rise. Flood historically used only exceeded combined effects of riverine (freshwater) (salt water) influences will then high alone. Once this emerges, it is projected become chronic within two Locations most at-risk emergence subsequent establishment those just inside estuary entrances. These locations exemplified by low freeboard, vertical distance between a threshold typical tide level. We use freeboard-based analysis estimate rise required impacts associated official The resultant tide-only frequency estimates provide lower bound future rates.

Language: Английский

---

Future frequencies of coastal floods in Australia: a seamless approach and dataset for visualising local impacts and informing adaptation

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 74(3)

Published: Oct. 10, 2024

The rise of pathways-based approaches to coastal adaptation in Australia has changed user requirements for flood hazard information support decision-making. This study identifies and addresses three aspects not considered the existing Australia-specific scientific guidance planning sea-level rise. First, changes frequency present-day extreme sea levels are compared between locations. Second, related impact-based thresholds associated with past events. Third, potential chronic flooding emerging is assessed. complements global studies that provide some Australian results on these topics. We survey identify methods most suitable our application apply chosen reference dataset monitoring change. yields a water-level covering daily centennial water 37 tide gauges. analyse national picture how expected influence future frequencies floods Australia. For example, 85% locations expect extremes occur 30 days per year less than 1-m largest increases have smallest magnitudes relative mean level, lower extremes. demonstrate further applications using local case studies: forecasting, climate risk services identifying required triggers be reached.

Language: Английский

---

Reply on CC1

Published: Dec. 18, 2023

Abstract. In response to flood risk, design estimation is a cornerstone of planning, infrastructure design, setting insurance premiums, and emergency planning. Under stationary assumptions, guidance the methods used in are firmly established practice mature their theoretical foundations, but under climate change, still its infancy. Human-caused change influencing factors that contribute risk such as rainfall extremes soil moisture, there need for updated guidance. However, barrier updating translation science into practical application. For example, most pertaining historical changes focuses on examining trends annual maximum events or application non-stationary frequency analysis. Although this valuable, practice, exceedance probabilities much rarer than events, 1 % probability event even rarer, using rainfall-based procedures, at locations where few no observations streamflow. Here, we perform systematic review summarize state-of-the-art understanding impact Australian context, while also drawing international literature. addition, meta-analysis, whereby results from multiple studies combined, conducted extreme provide quantitative estimates possible future changes. This information described context contemporary facilitate inclusion practice.

Language: Английский

---

Reply on RC1

Published: Dec. 18, 2023

Abstract. In response to flood risk, design estimation is a cornerstone of planning, infrastructure design, setting insurance premiums, and emergency planning. Under stationary assumptions, guidance the methods used in are firmly established practice mature their theoretical foundations, but under climate change, still its infancy. Human-caused change influencing factors that contribute risk such as rainfall extremes soil moisture, there need for updated guidance. However, barrier updating translation science into practical application. For example, most pertaining historical changes focuses on examining trends annual maximum events or application non-stationary frequency analysis. Although this valuable, practice, exceedance probabilities much rarer than events, 1 % probability event even rarer, using rainfall-based procedures, at locations where few no observations streamflow. Here, we perform systematic review summarize state-of-the-art understanding impact Australian context, while also drawing international literature. addition, meta-analysis, whereby results from multiple studies combined, conducted extreme provide quantitative estimates possible future changes. This information described context contemporary facilitate inclusion practice.

Language: Английский

---