Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 25(4), P. 492 - 498

Published: April 1, 2019

In recent decades Earth's rapidly changing climate, driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, has affected species distributions and phenology, ecological communities ecosystem processes, effects that are increasingly being observed globally (Allen et al., 2010; Doney 2012; Franklin, Serra-Diaz, Syphard, & Regan, 2016; Parmesan, 2006; Walther 2002). Pleistocene shifts in ranges during glacial–interglacial transitions reveal large-scale biome no-analog assemblages (MacDonald 2008; Nolan 2018; Williams Jackson, 2007); the pace of current warming outstrips past changes Earth system however, leading to new climate novelties (Ordonez, Williams, Svenning, 2016). Global scientific consensus now emphasizes global should be kept 1.5°C avoid catastrophic ecosystems services they provide people (IPCC, 2018), change threats biodiversity prioritized international policy response (Ferrier Conservation biogeography addresses impacts on distribution species, with implications for conservation assessment planning (Franklin, Richardson Whittaker, 2010). Species models—statistical models associating spatial other environmental factors 2010a)—have been used project large numbers across taxonomic groups, at scales. Furthermore, have assess protected area network effectiveness under a fast (Araújo, Alagador, Cabeza, Nogués-Bravo, Thuiller, 2011). Models based spatial-statistical correlation "first approximation" species' exposure risk change—the magnitude conditions experienced sensu Dawson, House, Prentice, Mace (2011)—but even such can misleading prioritize efforts (Sofaer, Jarnevich, Flather, 2018). There calls more comprehensive approach projections 2010b; Guisan 2005), consequently, data methodologies brought bear this important problem, including disturbance management scenarios range (Serra-Diaz, Scheller, 2015), accounting realistic dispersal (Aben Bocedi 2014; Engler, Hordijk, Guisan, 2012) incorporating processes not explicitly addressed SDMs as biotic interactions (Hof, Jansson, Nilsson, 2012), adaptive capacity organisms (Bush 2016) or generally eco-evolutionary dynamics (Legrand 2017). summary, there is clear need improve our forecasting (Urban context persistent lack widespread data, shortfalls ranging from discoveries, known shortage abundance (Hortal it surprising still dominant tool biogeography, but we argue their use needs explore further dimensions beyond projections. The group papers featured Special Issue portray wide different approaches study perspective. They key aspects conservation, both detecting change-driven biogeographical hotspots, projecting future ways move static, range-wide, single-species approaches. These incorporate interactions, community models, physiologically constrained experimental data. disentangle multiple drivers inform management. We highlight findings Issue, grouped these themes, following sections. Continuously monitoring reporting hotspots needed, sensitivity could offset predicted (Dawson first uses lines evidence detect attributable within bird (Flesch, 2019) moth (Cheng communities, highlighting value long-term monitoring. Flesch (2019) detected isolated mountain arid northern Mexico using extensive historical modern survey was able attribute land landscape configuration—changes depended traits. Cheng al. 15 years geometrid moths lowland tropical (Hong Kong) Bayesian occupancy modelling, an upward elevation shift consistent temperature, possibly also influenced indirect (distributions host plants avian predators). At level, dedicated sampling along longitudinal sites help determine early warning signs decline. issue, Matías, Abdelaziz, Godoy, Gómez-Aparicio shows how abiotic tree Quercus suber—an economically Iberian Peninsula. Understanding demography variations within-species' decline may better connect local applications. Additionally, authors found only pathogen demographic structure species. connected world, pathogens increase importance will crucial determining potential (Millar Stephenson, 2015; Roy Three suitability-derived SDM outputs Braz, Lorini, Vale propose method modelling parapatric combining niche overlap analysis components parapatry. affect parapatry Brazilian marmoset monkeys. Incorporating ad hoc via equivalency promising way numerous where would limited computational constraints. Caddy-Retalic applied composition analyse plant ant South Australia ordination techniques. Projections highlighted higher versus substantial decoupling change. Benedetti, Ayata, Irisson, Adloff, Guilhaumon explored interface between traditional species-centred functional biogeography. compared whether richness copepods equated diversity sensitive were functionally redundant. As part long-standing call mechanistically informed understanding prediction distributions, two issue physiological constraints Wilson, Skinner, Lotze correlative intertidal organisms. agreed thresholds. Casties, Clemmesen, Briski common-garden experiment analysing temperature salinity get gammarid tolerances order invasion success Baltic sea. Temporal population trends, identify corridors shifts. This strong bearing temporal scale which vulnerability plays out 21st century (e.g., mid vs. end differences, Serra-Diaz 2014). interannual variability extreme events predicting (Early Sax, 2011; Zimmermann 2009), what extent abundances persist, predict subject scrutiny. Two studies shed light questions. Maxwell reviewed 519 reported 60% weather than one year, 38% showed no recovery previous extreme-event conditions. another study, Becker built collected over forecast cetacean California Current novel extremely warm year 2014. illustrate consider spatially when biogeography—namely land-use Conlisk 2013; case Di Febbraro (2019), circuit theory methods address connectivity, while four alien squirrel introduced Europe projected expand change, reduction considered result loss suitable habitat corridors. 1,500 American Cerrado, Velazco, Villalobos, Galvão, De Marco Júnior separate combined most likely century. extensively areas. Climate expected cause significant barriers movement Beyond ranges, mounting melting Arctic sea ice dramatic exchanges birds mammals (McKeon 2016), fish interchanges (Wisz 2015). shape hence prioritization climate. caused redistribution arising redefine corridor networks. Coarse-filter (Carroll, Parks, Dobrowski, Roberts, 2018) fine-filter (Lawler, Ruesch, Olden, McRae, 2013) redistributions, shifting translate into strategies take account political entities. Montesino Pouzols (2014) showed, analysis, noncoordinated (national level) best cover 70% ecoregions if coordinated effort place. Thornton Branch performed countries geographical directions asymmetries country-level status. analysed listing transboundary Americas, 850 poleward transnational limits, 26% had status among countries. Velazco showcased Cerrado biodiversity. 1,553 areas Bolivia, Brazil Paraguay, underscoring inadequacy world. static 2005; Urban researchers, those worked fill gap, applying methods, experiments. Detection attribution remains critical challenge objective relies carefully curated surveys Freeman, Scholer, Ruiz-Gutierrez, Fitzpatrick, Kuhn Gégout, 2019; Yalcin Leroux, Data documenting aggregated big compilations time series (Dornelas 2018)), information improved prioritization. Country checklists starting gain momentum due institutional collaboration around Examples recently published lists aggregation occurrence either institutions GBIF http://www.gbif.org Atlas Living http://www.ala.org.au/ others, list long) research teams DRYFLOR, http://www.dryflor.info/; Enquist, Maitner, Merow, 2017), world (http://www.theplantlist.org/), well-known databases (https://www.protectedplanet.net/c/world-database-on-protected-areas). growing infrastructure nonetheless requires improvements maintenance time. Thus, generation curation biogeography—data science—needs development standardized protocols version controls procedures for, example, cleaning quality 2017 references therein). New needed shifts, resulting restoration decisions. level include joint (Pollock 2014) generate number A coupled regard (Franklin Zurell tools directly developed Evans, Record, McMahon, Merow Pironon simulation dynamically synergistic disturbances (Bocedi Boulangeat swiftly after event humans play role shaping regimes (Syphard 2007) consequences (Regan 2012). overall effect disturbances, For instance, Liang, Duveneck, Gustafson, Thompson (2018) little edge NE United States forests rapid conifer climate–fire western State forests. Finally, ensembles (Godoy, Bartomeus, Rohr, Saavedra, providing avenues Experiments albeit proven informative. Considering intraspecific variation real extinction outcomes (Benito Garzón, Alía, Robson, Zavala, trait-based performance experiments (provenance trials) resulted robust forecasts nonanalog (Chakraborty, Schueler, Lexer, Wang, 2019). Trait-based lens viewing mechanistic (Violle, Reich, Pacala, Kattge, 2014), Anderegg, Santini Sunday Model inter-comparison correlative) (Keenan, Lloret, Ninyerola, Sabate, 2011) produce (Talluto All all, forward opportunities vulnerabilities rates, assuming equilibrium answers short-term 20–30 years) dynamics. takes place benefit developments (Ackerly last decade, several indices understand regions Metrics like velocity (Burrows Loarie velocities Lawler, Hamann, bioclimatic (Serra-Diaz climates (Ordonez comparison (Comte Grenouillet, integrate Developing metrics easily capture priority. Dobrowski Parks (2016) pointed existing underestimate some because do routes. given availability high-resolution products microclimate estimation (Kearney Porter, identifying migration routes (micro)refugia possible (Dobrowski, Spatial small-scale opportunity buffer loss, (Hannah Keppel Lenoir, Hattab, Pierre, Likewise, acknowledged vegetation structure—notably canopy cover—could reduce impact canopies tend realized understory (Frey proposed (Lembrechts, Nijs, guide management, design nature-based solutions Proposed mitigation measures net carbon emissions warming, crop biofuels solar geoengineering themselves dynamics, through model-based (Dagon Schrag, Hof Trisos Similarly, interesting trophic rewilding—the reintroduction promote self-regulation biodiverse (Svenning However, widely actually implemented explored. example Jarvie Svenning rewilding viable 17-large-bodied candidates retained scenarios. benefited largely space taxa. arise, widening horizons field implies pushing limits become standards (Araújo 2019), less-used techniques biophysical model Grounding questions respond continue making transformative Anthropocene.

Language: Английский