Comparison of Juvenile Pacific Salmon abundance, distribution, and body condition between Western and Eastern Bering Sea using spatiotemporal models

Fisheries Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 278, P. 107086 - 107086

Published: July 3, 2024

Language: Английский

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The performance of model-based indices given alternative sampling strategies in a climate-adaptive survey design

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: July 5, 2023

Species-distribution shifts are becoming commonplace due to climate-driven change. Difficult decisions modify survey extent and frequency often made this change constraining budgets. This leads spatially temporally unbalanced coverage. Spatio-temporal models increasingly used account for sampling data when estimating abundance indices stock assessment, but their performance in these contexts has received little research attention. We therefore seek answer two questions: (1) how well can a spatio-temporal model estimate the proportion of new “climate-adaptive” spatial stratum? (2) must be reduced, does annual at reduced density or biennial result better model-based indices? develop varying coefficient R package VAST using eastern Bering Sea (EBS) bottom trawl its northern (NBS) extension address questions. first reduce 30 out 38 years real EBS fit four commercially important species “data-reduction” scenarios. shows that generally produces similar trends estimates over time large portions domain not sampled. However, central distribution population is sampled inaccurate have higher uncertainty. also conducted simulation experiment conditioned upon walleye pollock ( Gadus chalcogrammus ) NBS. Many region experiencing distributional attributable climate with historically centered southeastern portion being encountered The NBS was occasionally surveyed past, been more regularly recent document shifts. Expanding costly given limited resources utility reducing versus increase under debate. To question, we simulate from alternative designs involve full sampling, every year, (3) Our results show even density, provides less biased information than sampling. conclude ideally fishery-independent surveys should annually help provide reliable estimates.

Language: Английский

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Using age compositions derived from spatio-temporal models and acoustic data collected by uncrewed surface vessels to estimate Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) biomass-at-age

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Sept. 11, 2023

Generating biomass-at-age indices for fisheries stock assessments with acoustic data collected by uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) has been hampered the need to resolve backscatter contemporaneous biological (e.g., age) composition data. To address this limitation, Pacific hake ( Merluccius productus ; “hake”) were gathered from a USV survey (in 2019) and acoustic-trawl (ATS; 2019 eight previous years), fishery-dependent non-target (i.e., not specifically targeting hake) fishery-independent sources (2019 years). overcome lack of sampling in survey, age class compositions estimated generalized linear mixed spatio-temporal model (STM) fit The validity STM estimation procedure was assessed comparing estimates ATS each year. Hake all combinations acoustics (USV or 2019, only other years) information (STM Across area, proportional derived best differed observations 0.09 on average (median relative error (MRE): 19.45%) 0.14 across years (MRE: 79.03%). In data-rich areas regular fishery operations), 0.03 11.46%) 54.96%). On average, total biomass using composition-based approximately 7% study period (~ 3% given same source When different ATS) compared data, differences nearly ten-fold greater (22% 27%, depending if used). STMs non-contemporaneous may provide suitable assigning population structure areas, but advancements processing automated echo classification) be needed generate viable USV-based biomass-at-age.

Language: Английский

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Spatially explicit Bayesian hierarchical models improve estimates of avian population status and trends

Ornithological Applications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 126(1)

Published: Nov. 29, 2023

Abstract Population trend estimates form the core of avian conservation assessments in North America and indicate important changes state natural world. The models used to estimate these trends would be more efficient informative for if they explicitly considered spatial locations monitoring data. We created spatially explicit versions some standard status applied long-term data birds across America. compared simpler non-spatial same models, fitting them simulated real from 3 broad-scale programs: American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), Christmas Count, a collection programs we refer as Migrating Shorebird Surveys. All generally reproduced population trajectories when there were many data, performed better fewer where local differed range-wide means. When fit revealed interesting patterns trend, such recent increases along Appalachian Mountains Eastern Whip-poor-will (Antrostomus vociferus), that much less apparent results versions. also had higher out-of-sample predictive accuracy than selection species using BBS sharing information allows with smaller strata, allowing finer-grained trends. Spatially informed will facilitate locally relevant conservation, highlight areas successes challenges, help generate test hypotheses about dependent drivers change.

Language: Английский

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Spatiotemporal modelling of northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) distribution patterns throughout Canada’s subarctic and arctic regions

Marine Ecology Progress Series, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 740, P. 79 - 93

Published: July 8, 2024

Northern shrimp Pandalus borealis occur throughout Canada’s Atlantic Ocean, where they are thought to form a single population spanning from Baffin Bay the tail of Grand Bank. Here, play an important role in ecosystem as prey for many taxa and have been targeted by lucrative large-scale fishery since 1970s. Yet, we still understand little about which (and how) environmental factors influence their distribution abundance. We used survey data collected over 29 yr 23 degrees latitude develop spatiotemporal model predicting northern density. confirmed that both top-down drivers (e.g. predation pressure), well bottom-up bottom temperature) roles determining presence abundance shrimp. The was predict density entire study area 2005 2022. Our results highlight importance understanding dynamics relation patterns trends within resource assessments.

Language: Английский

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Climate Covariate Choice and Uncertainty in Projecting Species Range Shifts: A Case Study in the Eastern Bering Sea

Fish and Fisheries, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 16, 2024

ABSTRACT Species distribution models (SDMs) are critical to the adaptive management of fisheries under climate change. While many approaches projecting marine species range shifts have incorporated effects temperature on movement, there is a need incorporate wider suite ecologically relevant predictors as temperature‐based SDMs can considerably under‐ or over‐estimate rate responses shocks. As subarctic ecosystem at sea ice margin, Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) warming faster than much global ocean, resulting in rapid redistribution key fishery and subsistence resources. To support long‐term planning adaptation, we combine 40 years scientific surveys with high‐resolution oceanographic model examine bottom temperature, oxygen, pH regional index (the extent EBS ‘cold pool’) projections through end century. We use multimodel inference partition uncertainty among earth systems models, scenarios parameterizations for several economically important groundfish crabs. Covariate choice primary source most species, that account spatial cold pool performing better suggesting more extensive northward movements alternative models. Models suggest declines probability occurrence low oxygen concentrations species. project directionally consistent with, yet larger those previously estimated accounting large‐scale variability may substantially alter projections.

Language: Английский

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Estimating scale-dependent covariate responses using two-dimensional diffusion derived from the SPDE method

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 20, 2024

Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to standardize spatially unbalanced data, project climate impacts, and identify habitat for conservation. SDMs typically estimate the impact of local environmental conditions by applying a pointwise basis expansion, thereby estimating dome-shaped or non-parametric “environmental response function”. However, ecological responses integrate across conditions, such that species density depends on at location sampling but also nearby locations. To address this, we extend methods from Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) method is in INLA, which approximates spatial correlations based diffusion over finite-element mesh (FEM). We specifically introduce sparse inverse-diffusion operator FEM, apply this covariates efficiently calculate weighted average then passed through basis-expansion predict densities. show has several useful properties, i.e., conservation mass, linear computational time with resolution, uniform stationary distribution, where latter ensures estimated invariant (scale offset) transformations covariates. test covariate-diffusion using simulation experiment, it can correctly recover non-local while collapsing (pointwise) when warranted. monitoring data 25 bottom-associated fishes eastern Bering Sea 20 bird western United States. This application confirms case study parsimonious species-maturity combinations, collapse null method. Estimates suggest some combinations avoid proximity continental slope, beyond what predicted bathymetry isolation. By contrast, only 2 diffused human population covariate more than original covariate. The introduced here constitutes fast efficient approach modelling effects. flexible may be cases influence densities, instance due movement sampled its important biological physical drivers.

Language: Английский

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Impacts on population indices if scientific surveys are excluded from marine protected areas

ICES Journal of Marine Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 16, 2024

Abstract Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly common worldwide, typically restricting fishing activities. However, MPAs may also limit scientific surveys that impact benthic habitat. We combine a historical data degradation approach and simulation to investigate the effects on population indices of excluding from MPAs. Our quantifies losses in precision, inter-annual accuracy, trend power detect trends, as well correlates these effects. apply this proposed MPA network off western Canada, examining 43 groundfish species observed by four surveys. Survey exclusion particularly impacted less precise indices, well-represented MPAs, those whose density shifted or out Redistributing survey effort outside consistently improved precision but not accuracy detection—sometimes making estimates more about ‘wrong’ index. While changes qualitatively alter stock assessment for many species, some cases, ∼30 percentage point reductions simulated 50% declines suggest meaningful impacts possible. If restrictions continue expanding, index integrity could further degrade, eventually compromising management exploited populations. Regulating within boundaries therefore requires careful consideration balance objectives with need reliable monitoring.

Language: Английский

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Comparing spatiotemporal species distribution models: A case study of a Scotian Shelf sea cucumber (Cucumaria frondosa)

Ecosphere, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(4)

Published: April 1, 2024

Abstract Numerous spatiotemporal species distribution modeling frameworks are now available to the ecological practitioner. This study compared three such accessible in R programming language: generalized additive models with smooths as implemented by mgcv, linear mixed based on nearest neighbor Gaussian processes starve, and stochastic partial differential equations approach sdmTMB. The primary focus was compare inferences obtained from applying these case of orange‐footed sea cucumber, Cucumaria frondosa , Scotian Shelf off Nova Scotia, Canada. Each model fit catch data (2000–2019) Fisheries Oceans Canada's annual Research Vessel Snow Crab surveys. Environmental covariates were sourced high‐resolution layers, including physical oceanographic, bathymetric, seafloor morphometric datasets. captured variability cucumber that would have been overlooked without a approach. Although their predictions similar, within C. spatial reserves, provided different regarding covariate effects. suggests while practitioners primarily interested mapping distributions need only apply most familiar framework, those concerned identifying predictive environmental may benefit comparing output multiple approaches. Employing approaches can also serve validation technique.

Language: Английский

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Identifying potential provenances for climate-change adaptation using spatially variable coefficient models

BMC Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 24(1)

Published: May 28, 2024

Selection of climate-change adapted ecotypes commercially valuable species to date relies on DNA-assisted screening followed by growth trials. For trees, such trials can take decades, hence any approach that supports focussing a likely set candidates may save time and money. We use non-stationary statistical analysis with spatially varying coefficients identify indicate first regions similarly varieties Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) in North America. over 70,000 plot-level presence-absences, spatial differences the survival response climatic conditions are identified.

Language: Английский

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