Spatial resolution matters: unveiling the role of environmental predictors in English yew (Taxus bacata L.) distribution using MaxEnt modeling

Earth Science Informatics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 18(2)

Published: Jan. 29, 2025

Language: Английский

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Ecological modeling of climate change effects on priority species of the Liliaceae family in Iran

International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 9, 2025

Language: Английский

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Assessing the Vulnerability of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants to Climate and Land-Use Changes in a Mediterranean Biodiversity Hotspot

Land, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 13(2), P. 133 - 133

Published: Jan. 24, 2024

Medicinal and Aromatic Plants (MAPs) play a critical role in providing ecosystem services through their provision of herbal remedies, food natural skin care products, integration into local economies, maintaining pollinators’ diversity populations functioning. Mountainous regions, such as Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park (CVNP), represent unique reservoirs endemic MAP that require conservation prioritisation. This study aims to provide insights the sustainable management MAPs, contributing efforts protect Mediterranean biodiversity amid dual challenges climate land-use change, using suite macroecological modelling techniques. Following Species Distribution Modelling framework, we investigated vulnerability non-endemic MAPs changes. We examined potential shifts diversity, distribution, hotspots within CVNP. Our results revealed species-specific responses, with taxa facing severe range contractions initially expanding but eventually declining, particularly under change scenarios. Local are projected shift altitudinally, considerable area losses coming decades elevated species turnover predicted throughout CVNP, leading biotic homogenization. Climate changes jointly threaten calling for adaptive strategies, thus highlighting importance proactive measures, awareness raising, establishing plant micro-reserves, assisted translocation, promoting harvesting these offers vital managing global pressures, stressing need integrate ecological socioeconomic factors.

Language: Английский

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Predicting climate heating impacts on riverine fish species diversity in a biodiversity hotspot region

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Sept. 1, 2023

Co-occurring biodiversity and global heating crises are systemic threats to life on Earth as we know it, especially in relatively rare freshwater ecosystems, such Iran. Future changes the spatial distribution richness of 131 riverine fish species were investigated at 1481 sites Iran under optimistic pessimistic climate scenarios for 2050s 2080s. We used maximum entropy modeling predict species' potential distributions by hydrologic unit (HU) occupancy current future conditions through use nine environmental predictor variables. The most important variable determining was HU location, followed elevation, variables, slope. Thirty-seven predicted decrease their habitat all scenarios. southern Caspian faces highest reductions western Zagros northwestern These results can be managers plan conservational strategies ease dispersal species, those that greatest risk extinction or invasion rivers fragmented dams.

Language: Английский

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Assessing the applicability of binary land-cover variables to species distribution models across multiple grains

Landscape Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 39(3)

Published: March 4, 2024

Abstract Context Species distribution models are widely used in ecology. The selection of environmental variables is a critical step SDMs, nowadays compounded by the increasing availability data. Objectives To evaluate interaction between grain size and binary (presence or absence water) proportional (proportion water within cell) representation cover variable when modeling bird species distribution. Methods eBird occurrence data with an average number records 880,270 per across North American continent were for analysis. Models (via Random Forest) fitted 57 species, two seasons (breeding vs. non-breeding), at four grains (1 km 2 to 2500 ) using as variable. Results models’ performances not affected type adopted (proportional binary) but significant decrease was observed importance form. This especially pronounced coarser during breeding season. Binary useful finer sizes (i.e., 1 ). Conclusions At more detailed ), simple presence certain land-cover can be realistic descriptor occurrence. particularly advantageous collecting habitat field simply recording significantly less time-consuming than its total area. For grains, we recommend variables.

Language: Английский

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Unveiling of climate change-driven decline of suitable habitat for Himalayan bumblebees

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Feb. 29, 2024

Abstract Insect pollinators, especially bumblebees are rapidly declining from their natural habitat in the mountain and temperate regions of world due to climate change other anthropogenic activities. We still lack reliable information about current future conditions Himalaya. In this study, we used maximum entropy algorithm for SDM look at (in 2050 2070) suitable habitats found that Himalayan range do not have a very promising as most species will decrease over next 50 years. By 2050, less than 10% area remain 72% species, by 2070 number be raised 75%. During time period, existing declined but some find new which clearly indicates possibility shift bumblebees. Overall, 15% region is currently highly bumblebees, should considered priority areas conservation these pollinators. Since lie between several countries, nations share international borders agreements comprehensive pollinator diversity protect indispensable ecosystem service providers.

Language: Английский

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Cross-realm transferability of species distribution models–Species characteristics and prevalence matter more than modelling methods applied

Ecological Modelling, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 499, P. 110950 - 110950

Published: Nov. 20, 2024

Language: Английский

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Global Variation in Zooplankton Niche Divergence Across Ocean Basins

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 28(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Modelling responses to climate change assumes zooplankton populations remain similar over time with little adaptation (niche conservatism). Oceanic barriers, genetic, phenotypic variation and species interactions in cosmopolitan could drive niche divergence within species. We assess among 223 globally distributed across the seven main ocean basins. There were 357 diverged niches out of 828 basin comparisons. The proportion varied both phyla. Copepoda (156 species) used test for between same‐species different environmental gradients. Global was found be more likely colder temperatures nearshore environments. Opposing temperature four comparisons, which may relate connectivity patterns them. This study demonstrates adaptive potential environmental‐niche gradients, must considered when modelling population change.

Language: Английский

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Choosing blocks for spatial cross-validation: lessons from a marine remote sensing case study

Frontiers in Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: March 21, 2025

Supervised learning allows broad-scale mapping of variables measured at discrete points in space and time, e.g., by combining satellite situ data. However, it can fail to make accurate predictions new locations without training Training testing data must be sufficiently separated detect such failures select models that good across the study region. Spatial block cross-validation, which splits into spatial blocks left out for one after other, is a key tool this purpose. requires choices as size shape blocks. Here, we ask, how do affect estimates prediction accuracy? We tested cross-validation strategies differing size, shape, number folds, assignment folds with 1,426 synthetic sets mimicking marine remote sensing application (satellite chlorophyll Baltic Sea). With data, errors were known region, allowing comparisons well different estimated them. The most important methodological choice was size. had minor effects on errors. Overall, best blocking strategy reflected application: leaving whole subbasins region testing. Correlograms predictors helped choose While all approaches large worked well, none gave unbiased error tests, sometimes led an overestimation Furthermore, even reduced but did not eliminate bias too complex models. These results 1) yield practical lessons predictive other applications, 2) highlight limitations model splitting single set, when following elaborate theoretically sound strategies; 3) help explain contradictions between past studies evaluating methods transferability applications supervised learning.

Language: Английский

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Assessing tick attachments to humans with citizen science data: spatio-temporal mapping in Switzerland from 2015 to 2021 using spatialMaxent

Parasites & Vectors, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 18(1)

Published: Jan. 23, 2025

Abstract Background Ticks are the primary vectors of numerous zoonotic pathogens, transmitting more pathogens than any other blood-feeding arthropod. In northern hemisphere, tick-borne disease cases in humans, such as Lyme borreliosis and encephalitis, have risen recent years, a significant burden on public healthcare systems. The spread these diseases is further reinforced by climate change, which leads to expanding tick habitats. Switzerland among countries major health concern, with increasing incidence rates reported years. Methods response challenges, “Tick Prevention” app was developed Zurich University Applied Sciences operated A&K Strategy Ltd. Switzerland. allows for collection large amounts data attachment humans through citizen science approach. this study, were utilized map at 100 m spatial resolution, monthly basis, years 2015 2021. maps created using state-of-the-art modeling approach software extension spatialMaxent, accounts autocorrelation when creating Maxent models. Results Our results consist 84 displaying risk attachments Switzerland, model showing good overall performance, median $$\hbox {AUC}_{\textrm{ROC}}$$ AUC ROC values ranging from 0.82 2018 0.92 2017 2021 convincing distribution, verified experts study reveals that particularly high edges settlement areas, especially sparsely built-up suburban regions green spaces, while it lower densely urbanized areas. Additionally, forested areas near cities also show increased levels. Conclusions This mapping aims guide interventions reduce human exposure ticks inform resource planning facilities. findings suggest can be valuable risk, indicating potential use epidemiological surveillance planning. Graphical

Language: Английский

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