Heterogeneous changes in mobility in response to the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 outbreak in Shanghai

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(42)

Published: Oct. 12, 2023

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the measures taken by authorities to control its spread have altered human behavior mobility patterns in an unprecedented way. However, it remains unclear whether population response a COVID-19 outbreak varies within city or among demographic groups. Here, we utilized passively recorded cellular signaling data at spatial resolution of 1 km × for over 5 million users epidemiological surveillance collected during severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron BA.2 from February June 2022 Shanghai, China, investigate heterogeneous different segments within-city level examine relationship with actual risk infection. Changes were spatially heterogenous groups associated both infection incidence adopted interventions. We also found that males individuals aged 30 59 y old traveled more frequently, longer distances, their communities connected; same highest SARS-CoV-2 incidence. Our results highlight behavioral change Shanghai effect on COVID-19, demographically. These findings could be instrumental design targeted interventions mitigation future outbreaks and, broadly, pathogens.

Language: Английский

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A three-state coupled Markov switching model for COVID-19 outbreaks across Quebec based on hospital admissions

The Annals of Applied Statistics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 19(1)

Published: March 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Visualization and Quantification of Facemask Leakage Flows and Interpersonal Transmission with Varying Face Coverings

Published: June 7, 2024

Although mask-wearing is now widespread, knowledge of how to quantify or improve its performance remains surprisingly limited and largely based on empirical evidence. The objective this study was visualize the expiratory airflows from facemasks evaluate aerosol transmission between two persons. Different visualization methods were explored, including Schlieren optical system, laser/LED-particle imaging thermal camera, vapor-SarGel system. leakage flows escaped aerosols quantified using a hotwire anemometer particle counter, respectively. results show that reduces exhaled flow velocity 2~4 m/s (with no facemask) around 0.1 m/s, thus decreasing droplet speeds. Cloth, surgical, KN95 masks showed varying at nose top, sides, chin. rate also differed inhalation exhalation. neck gaiter has low filtration efficiency high fractions, providing protection efficiency. There considerable deposition in mouth-nose area, as well neck, chin, jaw, which heightened risk self-inoculation through spontaneous face-touching. A face shield plus surgical mask greatly reduced droplets head, face, indicating double coverings can be highly effective when single insufficient. system provided practical approach interpersonal under close contact scenarios with different coverings.

Language: Английский

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TLControl: Trajectory and Language Control for Human Motion Synthesis

Lecture notes in computer science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 37 - 54

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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Patterns of Infectious Disease Associated With Injection Drug Use in Massachusetts

Clinical Infectious Diseases, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 76(12), P. 2134 - 2139

Published: Feb. 8, 2023

Abstract Background Since 2014, multiple outbreaks of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among people who inject drugs have occurred across the United States along with hepatitis C (HCV), skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs), infective endocarditis (IE), creating a converging public health crisis. Methods We analyzed temporal patterns infectious disease overdose using hierarchical Bayesian distributed lag logistic regression model examining probability that given geographic area experienced at least 1 HIV case in month as function counts/rates overdose, HCV, SSTI, IE associated medical procedures different lagged time periods. Results Current-month is increasing HCV cases, abscess incision drainage, SSTI distinct patterns. For example, additional occurring 5 7 months previously 4% increase odds observing current-month locale (odds ratios, 1.04 [90% credible interval {CrI}: 1.01–1.10] CrI: 1.00–1.09]). No such associations were observed for echocardiograms, IE, or overdose. Conclusions Lagged other preceding rises counts cannot be described predictive but may point toward newly discovered epidemics injection drug use clinical sequalae, prompting clinicians to screen patients more carefully substance disorder infections.

Language: Английский

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Visualization and Quantification of Facemask Leakage Flows and Interpersonal Transmission with Varying Face Coverings

Fluids, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 9(7), P. 166 - 166

Published: July 22, 2024

Although mask-wearing is now widespread, the knowledge of how to quantify or improve their performance remains surprisingly limited and largely based on empirical evidence. The objective this study was visualize expiratory airflows from facemasks evaluate aerosol transmission between two persons. Different visualization methods were explored, including Schlieren optical system, laser/LED-particle imaging thermal camera, vapor–SarGel system. leakage flows escaped aerosols quantified using a hotwire anemometer particle counter, respectively. results show that reduces exhaled flow velocity 2~4 m/s (with no facemask) around 0.1 m/s, thus decreasing droplet speeds. Cloth, surgical, KN95 masks showed varying at nose top, sides, chin. rate also differed inhalation exhalation. neck gaiter has low filtration efficiency high fractions, providing protection efficiency. There considerable deposition in mouth–nose area, as well neck, chin, jaw, which heightened risk self-inoculation through spontaneous face-touching. A face shield plus surgical mask greatly reduced droplets head, face, indicating double coverings can be highly effective when single insufficient. system provided practical approach interpersonal under close contact scenarios with different coverings.

Language: Английский

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Night-time population consistently explains the transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 in three megacities in Japan

Frontiers in Public Health, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: June 21, 2023

Background Mobility data are crucial for understanding the dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but consistency usefulness these over time has been questioned. The present study aimed to reveal relationship between transmissibility COVID-19 in Tokyo, Osaka, and Aichi prefectures daily night-time population metropolitan areas belonging each prefecture. Methods In Japan, de facto estimated from GPS-based location mobile phone users is regularly monitored by Ministry Health, Labor, Welfare other health departments. Combined with this data, we conducted a series linear regression analysis explore reported case counts Aichi, downtown February 2020 May 2022. As an approximation effective reproduction number, weekly ratio cases was used. Models using lags ranging 7 14 days were tested. time-varying analysis, level change included as explanatory variables. fixed-effect inclusion either or change, both, variables tested, autocorrelation adjusted introducing first-order autoregressive error residuals. both analyses, lag used best fit models determined information criterion. Results tended show positive neutral effects on transmission, whereas showed negative effects. revealed that Tokyo 8-day-lagged fit, model only 9-day-lagged widely applicable For all regions, best-fit suggested transmissibility, which maintained time. Conclusion Our results that, regardless period interest, levels observed. introduction vaccinations major outbreaks Omicron BA. Two subvariants Japan did not dramatically three megacities Japan. Monitoring continues be forecasting short-term future incidence.

Language: Английский

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One year of modeling and forecasting COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: June 16, 2020

Abstract To support public health policymakers in Connecticut, we developed a county-structured compartmental SEIR-type model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease progression. Our goals were to provide projections infections, hospitalizations, deaths, as well estimates important features transmission, behavior, healthcare response, clinical progression disease. In this paper, describe meet the changing requirements officials Connecticut from March 2020 February 2021. We outline design, implementation calibration, how used decision-making throughout first year pandemic. calibrated data on deaths novel measure close interpersonal contact frequency capture changes risk over time multiple local sources infer dynamics time-varying inputs. Estimated epidemiologic epidemic include effective reproduction number, cumulative incidence infection, infection hospitalization fatality ratios, case detection ratio. methodology for producing evolution under uncertain future scenarios, analytical tools estimating that are difficult directly, such effects non-pharmaceutical interventions. The approach takes advantage our unique access surveillance hospital direct connection state policymakers. conclude with discussion limitations inherent predicting trajectories lessons learned one providing Connecticut.

Language: Английский

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Association of close-range contact patterns with SARS-CoV-2: a household transmission study

eLife, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 12

Published: July 18, 2023

Background: Households are an important location for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, especially during periods when travel and work was restricted to essential services. We aimed assess the association of close-range contact patterns with SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods: deployed proximity sensors two weeks measure face-to-face interactions between household members after identified in household, South Africa, 2020–2021. calculated duration, frequency, average duration events index cases. assessed parameters transmission using mixed effects logistic regression accounting member characteristics. Results: included 340 individuals (88 cases 252 members). On multivariable analysis, factors associated acquisition were minimum C t value <30 (aOR 16.8 95% CI 3.1–93.1) vs >35, female contacts 2.5 1.3–5.0). No 1.0–1.1) any cumulative time contact, or parameters. Conclusions: did not find Our findings may be due study limitations, that droplet-mediated close-proximity plays a smaller role than airborne high rates households. Funding: Wellcome Trust (Grant number 221003/Z/20/Z) collaboration Foreign, Commonwealth, Development Office, United Kingdom.

Language: Английский

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Trending on the use of Google mobility data in COVID-19 mathematical models

Advances in Continuous and Discrete Models, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 2024(1)

Published: July 5, 2024

Abstract Google mobility data has been widely used in COVID-19 mathematical modeling to understand disease transmission dynamics. This review examines the extensive literature on use of modeling. We mainly focus over a dozen influential studies using modeling, including compartmental and metapopulation models. provides valuable insights into changes interventions. However, challenges persist fully elucidating dynamics time, longer time series accounting for individual-level correlations patterns, urging incorporation diverse datasets post-COVID-19 landscape.

Language: Английский

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