Complex Policy Mixes are Needed to Cope with Agricultural Water Demands Under Climate Change

Water Resources Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 37(6-7), P. 2805 - 2834

Published: March 4, 2023

Abstract The divergence between agricultural water use and the annual supply of resources (water gap) has been increasing for decades. forecast is that this gap will continue to widen, compromising security a large share global population. On one hand, increase in demand attributed an ever-growing population that, addition, adopting high-water consumption per capita lifestyle (e.g., meat-rich diet, increased biofuels irrigated agriculture). other climate change aridification spatio-temporal heterogeneity precipitation worldwide. particularly acute drylands, where development food based on massive exploitation resources, groundwater. Here we analyze mechanisms underlying gap, which mainly driven by agriculture, suggest suitable solutions can help close it. Using causal diagrams, show how generates different demands create prevailing supply-side cannot close. Indeed, it widening over years because grown exponentially. This behaviour explained series necessary understand realize complexity scarcity problems. For solving propose exemplify eight lines action be combined tailored each territory. Our analyses corroborate urgent need plan integral management avoid widespread scenarios under future climatic conditions.

Language: Английский

---

A drier than expected future, supported by near-surface relative humidity observations

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(30)

Published: July 28, 2023

Despite continuous progress in climate modeling, global projections of the terrestrial water cycle remain highly model dependent. Here, we use quality-controlled gridded observations temperature and humidity to constrain projected changes continental near-surface relative across 21st century. Results show that are poorly constrained when using surface only argue for mitigation policies not rooted warming levels. Projections with both an inevitable drying, especially northern midlatitudes where anthropogenic aerosols have, however, countered this long-term response until late 1980s. A "strong drying" storyline is then used highlight urgent need careful adaptation strategies suggest a possible contribution land processes uncertainties.

Language: Английский

---

Responses of phenology to preseason drought and soil temperature for different land cover types on the Mongolian Plateau

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 926, P. 171895 - 171895

Published: March 24, 2024

Language: Английский

---

River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 28(10), P. 2179 - 2201

Published: May 23, 2024

Abstract. There is high confidence that global warming intensifies all components of the water cycle. This work investigates possible effects on river flows worldwide in coming decades. We conducted 18 hydrological simulations to assess how are projected change near future (2015–2050) compared recent past (1950–2014). The forced by runoff from High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) CMIP6 climate models (GCMs), which assume a high-emission scenario for projections. assessment includes estimating signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio and time emergence (ToE) rivers world. Consistently with cycle intensification, project clear positive discharge trend ∼2000 emerges beyond levels natural variability becomes “unfamiliar” 2017 “unusual” 2033. Simulations agree signal dominated strong increases originating central Africa South Asia those discharging into Arctic Ocean, partially compensated reduced flow Patagonian rivers. potential implications such changes may include more frequent floods African Asian rivers, driven magnification annual cycles unprecedented peaks, freshening Ocean extra freshwater release, limited availability Patagonia given drier conditions its underscores critical need paradigm shift prioritizing water-related concerns amidst challenges warming.

Language: Английский

---

An even drier future for the arid lands

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 121(2)

Published: Dec. 29, 2023

Understanding and controlling the interaction of graphene-based materials with cell membranes is key to development graphene-enabled biomedical technologies management graphene health safety issues. Very little known about ...

Language: Английский

---

Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 18(9), P. 094004 - 094004

Published: July 25, 2023

Abstract Climate warming is intensifying the global water cycle, including rate of fresh flux between atmosphere and surface, determined by precipitation minus evaporation (P−E). Surpluses or deficits impact societies ecosystems, so it important to monitor understand how why P−E patterns their seasonal range are changing across globe. Here, annual maximum minimum changes diagnosed globally over land ocean using observation-based datasets CMIP6 climate model experiments covering 1950–2100. Seasonal negative much globe, apart from Arctic, mid-latitude oceans tropical warm pool. In mean, increases decreases around 3%–4% per ∘ C 1995–2014 2080–2100 in ensemble mean an intermediate greenhouse gas emission scenario. Over land, there less coherence 1960–2020 datasets, but increase emerges future projections. Patterns qualitatively similar present day trends with equatorial belt high-latitude regions subtropical subsidence zones. This adds confidence projections a more variable extreme cycle also highlights uncertainties this response land.

Language: Английский

---

Climate Change Impacts on Blue and Green Water of Meki River Sub-Basin

Water Resources Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 37(6-7), P. 2835 - 2851

Published: April 15, 2023

Language: Английский

---

Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation, and Resilience: Challenges and Opportunities for the Control Systems Community

IEEE Control Systems, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 44(3), P. 33 - 51

Published: June 1, 2024

Climate change poses an existential threat to humanity. It is now indisputable that the primary cause of this human activity resulting in high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which began during Industrial Revolution and have continued rapidly accelerate. The first warnings impending irreversible climate were sounded decades ago, when governmental intergovernmental policy makers had sufficient time enact changes needed avoid dire situation we find ourselves today.

Language: Английский

---

Does climate change affect wheat productivity and water demand in arid regions? Case study of Egypt

Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16, P. 101181 - 101181

Published: April 25, 2024

The study investigates the effects of climate change on wheat productivity (Yw) and crop water requirements (CWR) across different regions in Egypt, highlighting potential threat to country's self-sufficiency goals. Data spanning from 1987 2019 lower, middle, upper as well areas outside Nile valley underwent both parametric non-parametric statistical analysis discern trends parameters their impact growth stages. Findings reveal a significant increase (P≤0.05) Yw areas, attributed effective strategies, with increases 0.61, 0.60, 0.59, 0.56 Mg ha-1 per decade middle valley, Egypt zones, respectively. Although observed Yw, results revealed negative relationship between maximum air temperature (Tmax), minimum (Tmin), growing degree days (GDD) depending zone stage. notes more rise Tmin than Tmax, adversely affecting particularly where rose by 0.43oC decade. CWR ∼12% lower ∼15% ∼18% 2009-2019 compared 1987-1997 under best farming conditions. Wheat showed resilience climatic change, whereas zone, node development stage was significantly sensitive Tmax fluctuations. In GDD changes during anthesis physiological stages negatively impacted Yw. suggests that strategies similar climates should start incorporate considerations. Recommendations include adopting heat, drought, disease-resistant varieties focusing expanding cultivation other zones rather cope change.

Language: Английский

---

Recent progress in atmospheric modeling over the Andes – part I: review of atmospheric processes

Frontiers in Earth Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12

Published: Nov. 11, 2024

The Andes is the longest mountain range in world, stretching from tropical South America to austral Patagonia (12°N-55°S). Along with climate differences associated latitude, Andean region also features contrasting slopes and elevations, reaching altitudes of more than 4,000 m. a.s.l., a relatively narrow crosswise section, hosts diverse ecosystems human settlements. This complex landscape poses great challenge weather simulations. interaction topography large-scale atmospheric motions controls meteorological phenomena at scales few kilometers, often inadequately represented global (grid spacing ∼200–50 km) regional (∼50–25 simulations previously studied for Andes. These typically exhibit large biases precipitation, wind near-surface temperature over Andes, they are not suited represent strong gradients processes. In recent years (∼2010–2024), number modeling studies, including convection permitting simulations, have contributed our understanding characteristics distribution variety systems processes along orographic precipitation hotspots, circulations, gravity waves, among others. Part I two-part review about we current strengths limitations numerical simulating key atmospheric-orographic region, low-level jets, downslope winds, II, how models simulate surface-atmosphere interactions hydroclimate Cordillera offer information on projections land-cover/land-use change or change. With focus hydroclimate, address some main challenges region.

Language: Английский

---