Predicting climate-driven shift of the East Mediterranean endemic Cynara cornigera Lindl

Frontiers in Plant Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16

Опубликована: Фев. 20, 2025

Climate change poses significant challenges to the distribution of endemics in Mediterranean region. Assessing impact climate on patterns is critical importance for understanding dynamics these terrestrial ecosystems under uncertainty future changes. The population size Cynara cornigera has declined significantly over previous century across its geographical This decline linked how ongoing affecting natural resources like water and capacity foraging sites. In fact, it distributed 3 fragmented locations Egypt (Wadi Hashem (5 individuals), Wadi Um Rakham (20 Burg El-Arab (4 individuals)). this study, we examined C. cornigera's response predicted next few decades (2020-2040 2061-2080) using species models (SDMs). Our analysis involved inclusion bioclimatic variables, SDM modeling process that incorporated five algorithms: generalized linear model (GLM), Random Forest (RF), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM). ensemble obtained high accuracy performance outcomes with a mean AUC 0.95 TSS 0.85 overall model. Notably, RF GLM algorithms outperformed other algorithms, underscoring their efficacy predicting Analysis relative variables revealed Precipitation wettest month (Bio13) (88.3%), warmest quarter (Bio18) (30%), driest (Bio14) (22%) as primary drivers shaping potential cornigera. findings spatial variations habitat suitability, highest observed Egypt, (especially Arishian sub sector), Palestine, Morocco, Northern Cyprus, different islands Sea Crete. Furthermore, our range would drop by more than 25% during decades. Surprisingly, area (SSP 126 scenario) 2061 2080 showed there increase suitable habitats area. It suitability along coastal strip Spain, Sardinia, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Aegean islands.

Язык: Английский

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Climate‐driven decline in the habitat of the endemic spiny babbler (Turdoides nipalensis)

Ecosphere, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(6)

Опубликована: Июнь 1, 2023

Abstract Climate change could amplify the extinction risk of endemic species, and is even greater for species occupying high elevations mountain ranges. In this study, we assessed climatically suitable habitat only Nepalese bird spiny babbler ( Turdoides nipalensis ), predicted extent future (2050 2070) under two climate scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 SSP5‐8.5). We used georeferenced occurrence points alongside ecologically meaningful climatic topographic variables to develop an ensemble model using different distribution modeling algorithms in BIOMOD2. identified 22,488.83 km 2 (15%) Nepal's total land area as where nonprotected regions incorporated largest (88%), with a majority within central Mid‐Hill region. Under SSP2‐4.5 scenario, 21.58% 34.08% current range are projected be lost by 2050 2070, respectively. Whereas SSP5‐8.5 our projections suggest that 40.45% 52.18% will Habitat suitability increased rise warmest quarter precipitation (above 1000 mm), coldest between 50 100 mm, temperature 20 30°C. Given results, it crucial review conservation policy areas formulate babbler‐specific action plan special focus on protecting their primary human‐dominated landscapes areas.

Язык: Английский

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Geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928) in China's coastal regions under climate change

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 920, С. 171061 - 171061

Опубликована: Фев. 17, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Narrow Dietary Niche With High Overlap Between Snow Leopards and Himalayan Wolves Indicates Potential for Resource Competition in Shey Phoksundo National Park, Nepal

Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Understanding species' dietary ecology and interspecific interactions is crucial for multi‐species conservation planning. In Central Asia the Himalayas, wolves have recolonized snow leopard habitats, raising considerable concern about resource competition between these apex predators. Using micro‐histological analysis of prey species remains (e.g., hair) in their fecal samples, we determined composition, niche breadth, extent diet overlap two predators Shey Phoksundo National Park, Nepal. We analyzed 152 scat samples collected along 89 survey transects from April to June 2021. Our findings reveal a significant diets (Pianka's index = 0.93), with wolf scats containing 11 10 species, respectively. However, difference selection was apparent, deviations observed expected use indicating non‐random relative availability: Snow leopards exhibited higher occurrence wild items (55.28%), primarily blue sheep ( Pseudois nayaur ) (24.83%), whereas relied predominantly on domestic livestock (67.89%), goats Capra hircus accounting over one‐fourth (29.15%). Yaks Bos grunniens comprised portion biomass consumed by both predators, (43.68%) than (36.47%). Overall, narrow breadth high indicates potential wolves. comprehensive understanding will require further study other axes partitioning, including habitat time. Nevertheless, region's low richness means that, increasing human influence, any reduction or increase could intensify wolves, which implications depredation.

Язык: Английский

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Differential vulnerability of key threatened mammals to climate and land cover changes in the Central Himalayas

Ecosphere, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(4)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change affects biological diversity by altering their suitable habitat ranges. The Himalayan region is one of the world's most sensitive biodiversity hotspots to global change. Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) in central Himalayas serves as a vital north–south linkage among protected areas Nepal and provides habitats for threatened mammals different ecological zones, such snow leopards (in alpine zone), red panda temperate one‐horned rhinoceros lowland tropical zone). CHAL land use alterations. This study assessed potential impacts cover changes on above three key employing maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling predict current project it future scenarios under greenhouse gas concentrations. Further, we used cellular automata Markov Chain models simulate temporal spatial CHAL. Our results indicate that leopard will experience more significant vulnerability than all scenarios. Approximately 36.3% 41.8% 32.5% 56% are projected be lost 2050 2070, respectively, representative concentration pathway (RCP6.0). Climate refugia, representing 2070 (under RCP6.0) CHAL, 958 km 2 (80.37% range), 1052 (43.73% 2375 (58.21% range) rhinoceros, panda, leopard, respectively. Among attributes predicted decrease 24% 2070. findings species inhabiting environments susceptible human‐induced those areas. These help implement adaptation actions crucial addressing conservation challenges arising from

Язык: Английский

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Predicting the Global Potential Suitable Areas of Sweet Osmanthus (Osmanthus fragrans) Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios

Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(11)

Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2024

ABSTRACT Osmanthus fragrans is a valuable landscaping tree that appreciated worldwide. However, the optimal environmental conditions for O . cultivation have yet to be studied in detail, which hinders preservation of wild resources this plant and its commercial exploitation. The maximum entropy model was applied assess significance environment variables influencing distribution. Combining data from 629 global distribution points , predictions were made on potential effects climate change geographical suitable habitats species present future. results indicated preferred warm humid growing environment. Under current climatic conditions, mostly located eastern coastal areas continents at medium low latitudes. main affected precipitation during warmest quarter, temperature seasonality, mean quarter. analysis continuation trends will result further reduction growth, centroid shift southeast. These findings provided insight into impact habitats, as well provide guidance conservation breeding more change‐resistant varieties

Язык: Английский

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Ecological risk assessment of future suitable areas for Piper kadsura under the background of climate change

Frontiers in Plant Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15

Опубликована: Янв. 20, 2025

Introduction Piper kadsura is a well-known medicinal plant that belongs to woody liana, possessing high therapeutic and economic value. The market demand of P. huge, but its wild resources are scarce artificial cultivation methods have not been established, which leads situation with strong contradiction imbalance between supply demand. Methods In this study, 303 sample distribution data for in China were collected, 33 environmental variables related terrain, climate soil analyzed the suitable habitats during various periods predicted by MaxEnt model ArcGIS software, aiming provide basis scientific effective utilization resources. Results results indicated precipitation temperature significant factors . primary influencing potential driest quarter (Bio17), annual (Bio12), mean diurnal range (Bio2), (Bio7). Among them, (Bio17) was most influential variable 100.68 274.48 mm. current mainly located coastal areas eastern southern China, especially Guangxi, Guangdong, Zhejiang Fujian, total area 51.74 × 104 km2. Future change global warming will lead reduction under scenarios. Especially SSP585 scenario, highly be significantly reduced 89.26% 87.95% compared present 2090s. Discussion Overall, these findings can useful references areas’ determination resources, optimization selection quality materials on

Язык: Английский

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Exploring the Climate-Suitable Forestation Area Under Species Distribution and Growth Modeling for Larix kaempferi and Chamaecyparis obtusa in the Republic of Korea

Forests, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(3), С. 530 - 530

Опубликована: Март 17, 2025

Climate change has been transforming forest ecosystems globally, affecting the sustainability of conventional management practices. This study investigates suitable forestation area (SFA) for Larix kaempferi and Chamaecyparis obtusa their growth potential in South Korea under various climate scenarios. Using species distribution models (SDMs) based on machine learning ensembles, we analyzed spatial shifts climatic suitability these species. Growth field data were also developed to evaluate variation between Köppen–Geiger zones. The results indicate a substantial reduction SFA L. kaempferi, with its habitat range confined high-altitude regions due rising temperatures. In contrast, C. is predicted expand nationwide, particularly inland areas, However, extreme increases temperature atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceeding 600 ppm may inhibit growth, highlighting need development adaptive strategies. provides useful information climate-resilient planning by combining growth-weighted indices projected shifts. These findings emphasize importance prioritizing conservation zones employing afforestation as means ensure sustainable carbon neutrality objectives.

Язык: Английский

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Comparative analysis of modeling methods and prediction accuracy for Japanese sardine habitat under three climate scenarios with differing greenhouse emission pathways

Marine Pollution Bulletin, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 215, С. 117867 - 117867

Опубликована: Март 24, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Climate-change habitat shifts for the vulnerable endemic oak species (Quercus arkansana Sarg.)

Journal of Forestry Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 35(1)

Опубликована: Дек. 20, 2023

Abstract Quercus arkansana (Arkansas oak) is at risk of becoming endangered, as the total known population size represented by a few isolated populations. The potential impact climate change on this species in near future high, yet knowledge its predicted effects limited. Our study utilized biomod2 R package to develop habitat suitability ensemble models based bioclimatic and topographic environmental variables locations current distribution Q. . We suitable habitats across three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for 2050, 2070, 2090. findings reveal that approximately 127,881 km 2 seven states (Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, Florida); 9.5% encompassed within state federally managed protected areas. predict all will disappear 2050 due change, resulting northward shift into new regions such Tennessee Kentucky. large extent outside areas suggests species-specific action plan incorporating other may be crucial conservation. Moreover, protection against require locally regionally focused conservation policies, adaptive management strategies, educational outreach among local people.

Язык: Английский

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