Point of Departure and Key Concepts

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown, С. 121 - 196

Опубликована: Июнь 22, 2023

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Язык: Английский

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The challenges of dynamic vulnerability and how to assess it

iScience, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 25(8), С. 104720 - 104720

Опубликована: Июль 4, 2022

Recent disasters have demonstrated the challenges faced by society as a result of increasing complexity disaster risk. In this perspective article, we discuss complex interactions between hazards and vulnerability suggest methodological approaches to assess include dynamics in our risk assessments, learning from compound multi-hazard, socio-hydrology, socio-ecological research communities. We argue for changed perspective, starting with circumstances that determine dynamic vulnerability. identify three types vulnerability: (1) underlying vulnerability, (2) changes during long-lasting disasters, (3) compounding societal shocks. conclude there is great potential capture using qualitative model-based methods, both reproducing historic projecting future provide examples narratives, agent-based models, system dynamics.

Язык: Английский

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Causal inference for time series

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 4(7), С. 487 - 505

Опубликована: Июнь 27, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Environmental Research Climate, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 2(2), С. 025001 - 025001

Опубликована: Фев. 28, 2023

Abstract As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced worst flooding in its history. We employ probabilistic event attribution methodology as well detailed assessment dynamics to understand role climate change this event. Many available state-of-the-art models struggle simulate these characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show much smaller likelihood and intensity than trend we found observations. This discrepancy suggests long-term variability, or processes may not capture, can play an important role, rendering it infeasible quantify overall human-induced change. However, majority observations have analysed intense has become heavier warmed. Some suggest could increased up 50%. The devastating impacts were also driven by proximity human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), agricultural land flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities high poverty rates socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, education), ongoing political economic instability. Both current conditions potential further increase peaks over light anthropogenic change, highlight urgent need reduce vulnerability weather Pakistan.

Язык: Английский

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Evaluation of potential changes in landslide susceptibility and landslide occurrence frequency in China under climate change

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 850, С. 158049 - 158049

Опубликована: Авг. 18, 2022

Язык: Английский

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