Runoff and Drought Responses to Land Use Change and CMIP6 Climate Projections DOI Open Access
Tao Liu, Zhenjiang Si, Yan Liu

и другие.

Water, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 17(11), С. 1696 - 1696

Опубликована: Июнь 3, 2025

Climate and land use changes significantly affect runoff hydrological drought, presenting challenges for water resource management. This study focuses on the Naoli River Basin, utilizing SWAT model integrated with PLUS projections under CMIP6 SSP245 SSP585 scenarios to assess trends in drought characteristics from 2025 2100. The Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) run theory are applied analyze frequency duration. Key findings include following: (1) Under scenario (2061–2100), changes—specifically, a reduction cropland an increase forest cover—resulted 12.59% decrease compared baseline period (1970–2014), notable differences when considering climate-only scenarios. (2) exhibits significant rise duration, particularly during summer, whereas shows milder trends. (3) Based Taylor plot evaluation, ensemble average MMM-Best (r = 0.80, RMSE 26.15) has been identified as optimal prediction 2025–2100 period. Deviation analysis revealed that NorESM2-MM IPSL-CM6A-LR demonstrated greatest stability, while EC-Earth3 exhibited largest deviation highest uncertainty. (4) Land help mitigate by enhancing retention, although their effectiveness diminishes due dominant influence of climate factors, including increased temperature precipitation variability. And (5) SRI-3 mutation indicated point occurred July 2074 April 2060 (p < 0.05). trend fluctuations, number crossover points rising 40 following changes; conversely, remained stable only seven points, high-emission predominantly influenced early mutations. These illuminate interactive effects change, providing scientific foundation optimizing management developing effective mitigation strategies.

Язык: Английский

Runoff and Drought Responses to Land Use Change and CMIP6 Climate Projections DOI Open Access
Tao Liu, Zhenjiang Si, Yan Liu

и другие.

Water, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 17(11), С. 1696 - 1696

Опубликована: Июнь 3, 2025

Climate and land use changes significantly affect runoff hydrological drought, presenting challenges for water resource management. This study focuses on the Naoli River Basin, utilizing SWAT model integrated with PLUS projections under CMIP6 SSP245 SSP585 scenarios to assess trends in drought characteristics from 2025 2100. The Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) run theory are applied analyze frequency duration. Key findings include following: (1) Under scenario (2061–2100), changes—specifically, a reduction cropland an increase forest cover—resulted 12.59% decrease compared baseline period (1970–2014), notable differences when considering climate-only scenarios. (2) exhibits significant rise duration, particularly during summer, whereas shows milder trends. (3) Based Taylor plot evaluation, ensemble average MMM-Best (r = 0.80, RMSE 26.15) has been identified as optimal prediction 2025–2100 period. Deviation analysis revealed that NorESM2-MM IPSL-CM6A-LR demonstrated greatest stability, while EC-Earth3 exhibited largest deviation highest uncertainty. (4) Land help mitigate by enhancing retention, although their effectiveness diminishes due dominant influence of climate factors, including increased temperature precipitation variability. And (5) SRI-3 mutation indicated point occurred July 2074 April 2060 (p < 0.05). trend fluctuations, number crossover points rising 40 following changes; conversely, remained stable only seven points, high-emission predominantly influenced early mutations. These illuminate interactive effects change, providing scientific foundation optimizing management developing effective mitigation strategies.

Язык: Английский

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