Projection of future precipitation, air temperature, and solar radiation changes in southeastern China

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 155(6), С. 4481 - 4506

Опубликована: Март 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Analysis of future climate variability under CMIP6 scenarios based on a downscaling method considering wet days in the upper Yangtze River basin, China

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 156(2)

Опубликована: Янв. 13, 2025

Abstract According to recent studies, the past decade was hottest on record, and climate change is accelerating. As part of Yangtze River Basin, largest river basin in China, Upper Basin (UYRB) plays a crucial role as primary source hydropower. However, UYRB also one most climate-sensitive regions within basin, making impact this area particularly critical. We downscaled CMIP6 GCMs’ outputs precipitation (including wet/dry spells sequence correction), temperature projections (2024–2100), under four typical Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), we pursued trend analysis upon these potential future series. found significant upward trends across all SSPs August, but no for same month. Additionally, SSP370 SSP585, there are December, while showed during that This may result drier winters than now, increased evapotranspiration, reduced surface (snow) water storage, impacting resources availability. Consecutive dry/wet days at station, scale show spatial-temporal heterogeneity, generally wet longer, dry shorten moving from South-East North-West.

Язык: Английский

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Development of stacking algorithm for bias-correcting the precipitation projections using a multi-model ensemble of CMIP6 GCMs in a semi-arid basin, India

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 156(2)

Опубликована: Янв. 23, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Normalized difference vegetation index prediction based on the delta downscaling method and back-propagation artificial neural network under climate change in the Sanjiangyuan region, China

Ecological Informatics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 72, С. 101883 - 101883

Опубликована: Окт. 30, 2022

Язык: Английский

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Drought limits vegetation carbon sequestration by affecting photosynthetic capacity of semi-arid ecosystems on the Loess Plateau

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 912, С. 168778 - 168778

Опубликована: Ноя. 25, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Trends, forecasting and adaptation strategies of climate change in the middle and west regions of Iraq

SN Applied Sciences, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 5(12)

Опубликована: Ноя. 6, 2023

Abstract Climate change has placed considerable pressure on the residential environment, agricultural, and water supplies in different areas of world, especially arid places such as Iraq. Iraq is one five most vulnerable countries world to climate change, where it been encountering extremes heat waves during recent decades resulted drought, desertification, rivers dried up, which led thousands hectares turn dry yellow. This study aims investigate trends middle western regions future expectations. The daily maximum temperature, minimum precipitation are downscaled using Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model. Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) employed for three periods: near (2021–2040), medium (2051–2070), far (2081–2100), based two scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 RCP8.5) four selected meteorological stations representing area. outcomes calibration validation model supported its skill reliability downscale temperature time series statistical indices (R 2 , RMSE MBE) ranging between (0.894–0.998), (0.1270–1.9274) (− 0.6158 0.0008), respectively. results showed that average annual temperatures will increase at all across periods by 0.94 4.98 °C end twenty-first century. Annual changes tend generally towards area (6.09–14.31%) RCP4.5 (11.25–20.97%) RCP8.5 Compared historical data (1990–2020). These findings can contribute become more acquainted with effects environment encourage managers planners come up plans mitigating adapting these effects. They also serve a guide management agricultural resources region.

Язык: Английский

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Projected Intensified Hydrological Processes in the Three‐River Headwater Region, Qinghai Tibetan Plateau

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 60(5)

Опубликована: Май 1, 2024

Abstract The Three‐River Headwater Region, also known as China's water tower, is highly sensitive to climate change and has experienced profound hydrological alterations in the last few decades. This study assessed potential impacts of on all important components such precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, snow‐melt flow, soil moisture (SM) content region. For this, data (i.e., temperature, relative humidity, windspeed) three Global Climate Models CanESM5, MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR, NorESM2‐MM) was downscaled with Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) their ensemble forced into a model simulate processes for 1981–2100. screening process, which central downscaling techniques, very subjective SDSM. Therefore, we developed quantitative approach by modifying method applied Mahmood Babel (2013, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704‐012‐0765‐0 ) selection set logical predictors cope multi‐collinearity ranking. analyses were performed near future period (NFP, 2021–2060) far (FFP, 2061–2100) baseline (BLP, 1981–2020). results showed that region will be hotter wetter future, intensive frequent floods. example, streamflow increase 1.0–1.5 (1–1.9)°C, 9–21 (15–27)%, 6–17 (9–29)%, 9–46 (22–64)% NFP 2.0–2.8 (2.7–4.6)°C, 16–40 (43–87)%, 11–31 (24–73)%, 20–95 (60–198)% FFP, respectively, under SSP2‐4.5 (SSP5‐8.5). Similar projections explored other components. Among all, surface flow an unprecedented (500%–1,000%) FFP. Peak flows much higher shift forward, snowmelt start earlier future. present can good source understanding cycle used planning management resources elevated complex Qinghai Tibetan Plateau.

Язык: Английский

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Extreme Temperature and Rainfall Events and Future Climate Change Projections in the Coastal Savannah Agroecological Zone of Ghana

Atmosphere, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 14(2), С. 386 - 386

Опубликована: Фев. 15, 2023

The global climate has changed, and there are concerns about the effects on both humans environment, necessitating more research for improved adaptation. In this study, we analyzed extreme temperature rainfall events projected future change scenarios coastal Savannah agroecological zone (CSAZ) of Ghana. We utilized ETCCDI, RClimDex software (version 1.0), Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, standardized anomalies to analyze homogeneity, trends, magnitude, seasonal variations in (Tmax Tmin) datasets zone. SDSM was also used downscale based CanESM2 (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 scenarios) HadCM3 (A2 B2 models Model performance evaluated using statistical methods such as R2, RMSE, PBIAS. Results revealed changepoints Tmin than Tmax rainfall. again showed that CSAZ warmed over last four decades. SU25, TXn, TN90p have increased significantly zone, opposite is case TN10p DTR. Spatially varied trends were observed TXx, TNx, TNn, TX10p, TX90p, CSDI across decrease RX1day, RX5day, SDII, R10, R95p, R99p significant most parts central region compared Greater Accra Volta regions, while CDD decreased latter two regions former. CWD PRCPTOT insignificant throughout overall during calibration validation good ranged from 58–99%, 0.01–1.02 °C, 0.42–11.79 °C PBIAS, respectively. expected be highest (1.6 °C) lowest (−1.6 three well (1.5 entire according models. (1.4 (−2.1 (−2.3 greatest mean annual occur 2080s under RCP8.5, (3.2 2050s same scenario. Monthly between −98.4 247.7% −29.0 148.0% all scenarios. (0.8%) (79%) changes 2030s 2080s. findings study could helpful development appropriate adaptation plans safeguard livelihoods people

Язык: Английский

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Assessing Three Perfect Prognosis Methods for Statistical Downscaling of Climate Change Precipitation Scenarios

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 50(9)

Опубликована: Май 10, 2023

Abstract Under the perfect prognosis approach, statistical downscaling methods learn relationships between large‐scale variables from reanalysis and local observational records. These are subsequently applied to downscale future global climate model (GCM) simulations in order obtain projections for region of interest. However, capability such produce change signals consistent with those GCM, often referred as transferability , is an important issue that remains be carefully analyzed. Using EC‐Earth GCM focusing on precipitation, we assess generalized linear models, convolutional neural networks a posteriori random forests (APRFs). We conclude APRFs present best overall performance historical period, projected by EC‐Earth. Moreover, show how slight modification can greatly improve temporal consistency downscaled series.

Язык: Английский

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Rainfall Erosivity Characteristics during 1961–2100 in the Loess Plateau, China

Remote Sensing, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(4), С. 661 - 661

Опубликована: Фев. 12, 2024

Rainfall erosivity, which signifies the inherent susceptibility of soil erosion induced by precipitation, plays a fundamental role in formulating comprehensive loss equation (RUSLE). It stands as crucial determinant among foundational factors considered equation’s establishment. Nonetheless, prediction and quantification future alterations rainfall erosivity under influence global warming have been relatively limited. In this study, climate change was widely evaluated 10 preferred models Loess Plateau were selected using data sets 27 simulating CN05.1 set provided latest CMIP6. The monthly precipitation forecast obtained delta downscaling method. Combined with trend analysis, significance test, coefficient variation, annual during 1961–2100 four SSP scenarios analyzed predicted. Among GCM used paper, most suitable for CMCC-CM2-SR5, CMCC-ESM2, TaiESM1, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth-Veg-LR, INM-CM4-8, CAS-ESM2-0, EC-Earth-Veg, ACCESS-ESM1-5, IPSL-CM6A-LR. comparison to base period (1961–1990), historical (1961–2014), average on amounted 1259.64 MJ·mm·hm−2·h−1·a−1, showing an insignificant downward trend. northwest Ningxia, Yulin City Yanan showed significant upward (2015–2100), continues constantly increase. potential increase is about 13.48–25.86%. terms spatial distribution, areas increasing these regions, majority encompassed within Shanxi Province, central Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia increased greatly, not conducive water conservation ecological environment construction. This study offers scientific reference projected characteristics Plateau.

Язык: Английский

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