Effects of future climate and land use changes on runoff in tropical regions of China DOI Creative Commons

Shiyu Xue,

Xiaohui Guo,

Yanhu He

и другие.

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Дек. 28, 2024

Abstract Climate change and human activities are the primary drivers influencing changes in runoff dynamics. However, current understanding of future hydrological processes under scenarios gradual climate escalating remains uncertain, particularly tropical regions affected by deforestation. Based on this, we employed SWAT model coupled with near (2021–2040) middle (2041–2060) global models (GCMs) four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6 (SSP1 + RCP2.6), SSP2-4.5 (SSP2 RCP4.5), SSP3-7.0 (SSP3 RCP7.0), SSP5-8.5 (SSP5 RCP8.5)) from CMIP6 CA-Markov to evaluate response environmental Dingan River Basin (DRB). The quantification impacts land use was conducted. results revealed a non-significant increasing trend precipitation during historical period (1999–2018). Furthermore, all three (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) exhibited an upward 2021 2060. Notably, scenario demonstrated highly significant increase ( P < 0.01), while displayed decreasing trend. pattern exhibits decrease spring winter, showing summer autumn. temperature 0.05) across scenarios, amplitudes 0.24 °C/(10 years), 0.36 0.50 years) for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, respectively. entails continuous cultivated corresponding artificial forest land. By 2032, area is projected witness growth 4.10%, coverage will experience decline 4.45%. 2046, extent anticipated expand 4.41%, accompanied reduction cover amounting 5.39%. average annual 53.35 m³/s, Mann-Kendall (MK) test showed that it Compared period, comprehensive impact cause 0.49%, 1.98%, − 3.13%, 3.65% future, 3.24%, 1.30%, 3.75% 18.24% intra-annual variations suggest earlier peak more concentrated distribution wet season (May October). periods, total increased 6.53%, 8.91%, 7.17%, 7.39%, research findings offer insights into regions, also serving as valuable reference watershed water resource management disaster control.

Язык: Английский

Effects of future climate and land use changes on runoff in tropical regions of China DOI Creative Commons

Shiyu Xue,

Xiaohui Guo,

Yanhu He

и другие.

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Дек. 28, 2024

Abstract Climate change and human activities are the primary drivers influencing changes in runoff dynamics. However, current understanding of future hydrological processes under scenarios gradual climate escalating remains uncertain, particularly tropical regions affected by deforestation. Based on this, we employed SWAT model coupled with near (2021–2040) middle (2041–2060) global models (GCMs) four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6 (SSP1 + RCP2.6), SSP2-4.5 (SSP2 RCP4.5), SSP3-7.0 (SSP3 RCP7.0), SSP5-8.5 (SSP5 RCP8.5)) from CMIP6 CA-Markov to evaluate response environmental Dingan River Basin (DRB). The quantification impacts land use was conducted. results revealed a non-significant increasing trend precipitation during historical period (1999–2018). Furthermore, all three (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) exhibited an upward 2021 2060. Notably, scenario demonstrated highly significant increase ( P < 0.01), while displayed decreasing trend. pattern exhibits decrease spring winter, showing summer autumn. temperature 0.05) across scenarios, amplitudes 0.24 °C/(10 years), 0.36 0.50 years) for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, respectively. entails continuous cultivated corresponding artificial forest land. By 2032, area is projected witness growth 4.10%, coverage will experience decline 4.45%. 2046, extent anticipated expand 4.41%, accompanied reduction cover amounting 5.39%. average annual 53.35 m³/s, Mann-Kendall (MK) test showed that it Compared period, comprehensive impact cause 0.49%, 1.98%, − 3.13%, 3.65% future, 3.24%, 1.30%, 3.75% 18.24% intra-annual variations suggest earlier peak more concentrated distribution wet season (May October). periods, total increased 6.53%, 8.91%, 7.17%, 7.39%, research findings offer insights into regions, also serving as valuable reference watershed water resource management disaster control.

Язык: Английский

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