Tackling unresolved questions in forest ecology: The past and future role of simulation models

Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 11(9), С. 3746 - 3770

Опубликована: Март 30, 2021

Abstract Understanding the processes that shape forest functioning, structure, and diversity remains challenging, although data on systems are being collected at a rapid pace across scales. Forest models have long history in bridging with ecological knowledge can simulate dynamics over spatio‐temporal scales unreachable by most empirical investigations. We describe development different modelling communities followed to underpin leverage simulation offer for advancing our understanding of ecosystems. Using three widely applied but contrasting approaches – species distribution models, individual‐based dynamic global vegetation as examples, we show how scientific technical advances led transgress their initial objectives limitations. provide an overview recent model applications current important topics pinpoint ten key questions could, should, be tackled next decade. Synthesis. This shows due complementarity mutual enrichment, represent invaluable toolkit address wide range fundamental questions, hence fostering deeper context change.

Язык: Английский

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The evolution, complexity and diversity of models of long‐term forest dynamics

Journal of Ecology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 110(10), С. 2288 - 2307

Опубликована: Авг. 26, 2022

To assess the impacts of climate change on vegetation from stand to global scales, models forest dynamics that include tree demography are needed. Such now available for 50 years, but currently existing diversity model formulations and its evolution over time poorly documented. This hampers systematic assessments structural uncertainties in model-based studies.We conducted a meta-analysis 28 models, focusing were used past five years studies. We defined 52 attributes groups (basic assumptions, growth, regeneration, mortality soil moisture) characterized each according these attributes. Analyses complexity included hierarchical cluster analysis redundancy analysis.Model evolved considerably years. Increases largest growth processes, while modelled establishment processes increased only moderately. Model was lowest at scale, highest landscape scale. identified distinct clusters ranging very simple where specific attribute rendered complex manner feature high across all attributes.Most use today not balanced level with which they represent different processes. is result purposes, also reflects legacies code, modelers' preferences, 'prevailing spirit epoch'. The lack firm theories, laws 'first principles' ecology provides degrees freedom development, results responsibilities developers need rigorous evaluation.

Язык: Английский

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Strategic roadmap to assess forest vulnerability under air pollution and climate change

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 28(17), С. 5062 - 5085

Опубликована: Июнь 1, 2022

Abstract Although it is an integral part of global change, most the research addressing effects climate change on forests have overlooked role environmental pollution. Similarly, studies investigating air pollutants generally neglected impacts change. We review current knowledge combined pollution and forest ecosystems identify several key priorities as a roadmap for future. Specifically, we recommend (1) establishment much denser array monitoring sites, particularly in South Hemisphere; (2) further integration ground satellite monitoring; (3) generation flux‐based standards critical levels taking into account sensitivity dominant tree species; (4) long‐term N, S, P cycles base cations deposition together at scale; (5) intensification experimental studies, different abiotic factors by assuring better representation taxonomic functional diversity across ~73,000 species Earth; (6) more focus phenomics genomics; (7) improved processes regulating dynamics radionuclides systems; (8) development models integrating data from programs.

Язык: Английский

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A Proposal for a Forest Digital Twin Framework and Its Perspectives

Forests, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 13(4), С. 498 - 498

Опубликована: Март 23, 2022

The increasing importance of forest ecosystems for human society and planetary health is widely recognized, the advancement data collection technologies enables new integrated ways monitoring. Therefore, target this paper to propose a framework design digital twin (FDT) that, by integrating different state variables at both tree levels, creates virtual copy forest. integration these sets could be used scientific purposes, reporting status forests, ultimately implementing sustainable management practices on basis use cases that specific implementation would underpin. Achieving such outcomes requires twinning single trees as core element FDT recording physical biotic near environment via real–virtual sockets. Following nested approach, twinned related physiological processes are then part broader entire realized capturing scale from sources remote sensing flux towers. Ultimately, unlock economic value ecosystem services, should implement distributed ledger-based blockchain smart contracts ensure highest transparency, reliability, thoroughness transactions sharpen risk with final goal improve capital flow towards management.

Язык: Английский

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Feedback loops drive ecological succession: towards a unified conceptual framework

Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 99(3), С. 928 - 949

Опубликована: Янв. 16, 2024

ABSTRACT The core principle shared by most theories and models of succession is that, following a major disturbance, plant–environment feedback dynamics drive directional change in the plant community. commonly studied loops are those which regrowth community causes changes to abiotic (e.g. soil nutrients) or biotic dispersers) environment, differentially affect species availability performance. This, turn, leads shifts composition However, there many other PE that potentially succession, each can be considered model succession. While generate predictable successional trajectories, generally observed highly variable. Factors contributing this variability stochastic processes involved dynamics, such as individual mortality seed dispersal, extrinsic not affected but do performance availability. Both lead variation identity dominant within communities. further contingencies if these differ their effect on environment (priority effects). Predictability thus intrinsically linked features ecological We present new conceptual framework integrates propositions discussed above. This defines seven general causes: landscape context, disturbance land‐use, factors, availability, performance, When loop, when not, they create trajectories dynamics. proposed provides guide for linking into causal pathways represent specific Our represents systematic approach identifying main at different stages. It used comparisons among study sites along environmental gradients, conceptualise studies, formulation research questions design field studies. Mapping an extensive onto our revealed representing study's empirical outcomes had important differences, underlining need move beyond currently dominate fields find ways examine importance interactions alternative To aim, we argue integrating long‐term studies across anthropogenic combined with controlled experiments dynamic modelling.

Язык: Английский

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Regional estimates of gross primary production applying the Process-Based Model 3D-CMCC-FEM vs. Remote-Sensing multiple datasets

European Journal of Remote Sensing, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 57(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2024

Process-based Forest Models (PBFMs) offer the possibility to capture important spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes stocks in forests. Yet, their predictive capacity should be demonstrated not only at stand-level but also context broad heterogeneity. We apply a stand scale PBFM (3D-CMCC-FEM) spatially explicit manner 1 km resolution southern Italy. developed methodology initialize model that includes information derived from integration Remote Sensing (RS) National Inventory (NFI) data regional forest maps characterize structural features main species. Gross primary production (GPP) is simulated over 2005–2019 period capability simulating GPP evaluated both aggregated as species-level through multiple independent sources based on different nature RS-based products. show able reproduce most (~2800 km2) (32 years total) observed seasonal, annual interannual time scales, even species-level. These promising results open confindently applying 3D-CMCC-FEM investigate forests' behaviour under climate environmental variability large areas across highly variable ecological bio-geographical heterogeneity Mediterranean region.

Язык: Английский

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Adaptive forest management improves stand-level resilience of temperate forests under multiple stressors

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 948, С. 174168 - 174168

Опубликована: Июнь 26, 2024

Язык: Английский

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More species, more trees: The role of tree packing in promoting forest productivity

Journal of Ecology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 5, 2025

Abstract Forests provide many ecosystem services that strongly depend on species diversity, as illustrated by the repeatedly observed diversity–productivity relationships (DPRs). These forest DPRs are assumed to result mostly from complementarity between at tree level whilst emerging community‐level processes remain poorly explored. In this study, we propose ‘tree packing effect’ (TPE), where diversity promotes productivity positively impacting maximum stand density, is an important determinant of DPRs. We tested two components TPE: (i) whether density increases with richness and (ii) higher allowed productivity. First, relying national inventories six European countries (NFIs, totaling 2,367,776 trees), fitted self‐thinning lines examine these were influenced plot richness. showed in Europe, all but one country. This trend was notably stronger extreme climates. Second, ran a large simulation‐based experiment (including 7,024,815 simulations) individual‐based dynamics model able control for stand‐density effects, quantify more than 1000 sites Europe. Relying original method site level, compared strength simulated without density. found positive up 10‐times when TPE play controlled. effect through also climates, especially warm dry conditions. Synthesis . Highlighting generality forests, our results reveal functioning partly mediated diversity‐driven changes mechanism has been long overlooked biodiversity—ecosystem studies, findings call its reconsideration, natural forests. It opens key perspectives management climate change mitigation programmes.

Язык: Английский

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Beetles, wind, and fire: Effects of climate change and close-to-nature forestry on disturbance predisposition and ecosystem service trade-offs

Forest Ecology and Management, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 586, С. 122690 - 122690

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Accuracy, realism and general applicability of European forest models

Global Change Biology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 28(23), С. 6921 - 6943

Опубликована: Авг. 12, 2022

Forest models are instrumental for understanding and projecting the impact of climate change on forests. A considerable number forest have been developed in last decades. However, few systematic comprehensive model comparisons performed Europe that combine an evaluation modelled carbon water fluxes structure. We evaluate 13 widely used, state-of-the-art, stand-scale against field measurements structure eddy-covariance data over multiple decades across environmental gradient at nine typical European stands. test models' performance three dimensions: accuracy local predictions (agreement observed annual data), realism responses daily gross primary productivity to temperature, radiation vapour pressure deficit) general applicability (proportion tree species covered). find available excel according our dimensions performance. For predictions, variables related lower random errors than flux variables. Moreover, multi-model ensemble mean provided overall more realistic drivers all sites any single individual model. The is high, as almost currently able cover Europe's common species. show complement each other their response there several cases which outperform ensemble. Our framework provides a first step capturing essential differences between go beyond most commonly used predictions. Overall, this study point reference future work aimed predicting impacts supporting mitigation adaptation measures

Язык: Английский

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