Saving the Dinaric lynx: multidisciplinary monitoring and stakeholder engagement support large carnivore restoration in human-dominated landscape

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Окт. 17, 2024

Abstract Translocations are central to large carnivore restoration efforts, but inadequate monitoring often inhibits effective conservation decision-making. Extinctions, reintroductions, poaching and high inbreeding levels of the Central European populations Eurasian lynx ( Lynx ) typify challenges in Anthropocene. Recently, several efforts were initiated improve genetic demographic status, met with variable success. Here, we report on a successful, stakeholder-engaged translocation effort reinforce highly-inbred Dinaric population create new stepping-stone subpopulation Southeastern Alps. We used multidisciplinary internationally-coordinated using systematic camera- trapping, non-invasive sampling, GPS-tracking translocated remnant individuals, recording reproductive events interspecific interactions, as well simultaneous tracking public stakeholders’ support before, during after process across three countries. Among 22 wild-caught Carpathian lynx, 68% successfully integrated into local ecosystems at least 59% reproduced. Probability dispersing from release areas was 3-times lower when soft-release rather than hard-release method used. Translocated individuals had natural mortality, higher success similar ungulate kill rates compared lynx. Cooperation hunters protected area managers enabled us conduct multi-year camera-trapping 12,000-km 2 transboundary area. Results indicate reversal decline, abundance increased for >40% 4-year period. Effective decreased 0.32 0.08-0.19, suggesting 2- 4-fold increase fitness. Furthermore, successful establishment represents an important step towards restoring metapopulation. Robust partnerships communities coupled transparent communication helped maintain stakeholder throughout process. Lessons learned about importance involvement conducted countries provide example further restore carnivores human-dominated ecosystems.

Язык: Английский

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Stress‐Testing Monitoring Design to Lock in Conservation Success

Austral Ecology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 50(2)

Опубликована: Янв. 30, 2025

ABSTRACT Effective monitoring of threatened species is key to identifying trends in populations and informing conservation management decisions. However, clearly defined questions that are informed by local circumstances traits commonly neglected. We propose a decision framework as guide prioritise what data collect methods use for population monitoring. applied our trial Gang‐gang Cockatoos ( Callocephalon fimbriatum ), threatened, iconic Southeast Australia. To meet program objectives, we trailed distance sampling surveys estimate abundance across the urban landscape Australian Capital Territory. Despite consistently high reporting rates study area, detection were too low Cockatoos. As part assessing appropriateness an approach, simulated under hypothetically inflated survey effort size. Simulations show even if field was doubled or size improbably high, detections would remain be practical approach. then revisit make new recommendations future demonstrate importance clear when evaluating how best achieve goals context methodological uncertainty. The first steps designing implementing crucial—our offers practitioners clear, reasoned approach deciding which needed address their along with contingencies plans go awry.

Язык: Английский

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Effects of prescribed fire on body condition, injury frequency, and recapture of reptiles in Mediterranean-type eucalypt forests

Forest Ecology and Management, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 586, С. 122683 - 122683

Опубликована: Апрель 4, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Multidisciplinary monitoring and stakeholder engagement support large carnivore restoration in human‐dominated landscape

Ecological Applications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 35(3)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Abstract Translocations are central to large carnivore restoration efforts, but inadequate monitoring often inhibits effective conservation decision‐making. Extinctions, reintroductions, illegal killings, and high inbreeding levels of the Central European populations Eurasian lynx ( Lynx ) typify challenges in Anthropocene. Recently, several efforts were initiated improve genetic demographic status met with variable success. Here, we report on successful, stakeholder‐engaged translocation across three countries aimed to: (1) reinforce Dinaric population that was suffering from (2) create a new stepping‐stone subpopulation neighboring Southeastern Alps help connect Alpine populations. To evaluate success these used multidisciplinary internationally coordinated using systematic camera trapping, non‐invasive sampling, GPS tracking, recording reproductive events interspecific interactions, as well simultaneous tracking public stakeholders' support before, during, after translocations. Among 22 translocated wild‐caught Carpathian lynx, 68% successfully integrated into local ecosystems, at least 59% reproduced. The probability dispersing release areas times lower soft‐release method than hard‐release method. Translocated individuals had substantially natural mortality higher success, while their ecological impact similar compared remnant population. Cooperation hunters protected area managers enabled us conduct multi‐year camera‐trapping 12,000‐km 2 transboundary area. Results indicate reversal decline, abundance increased for >40% during 4‐year period. Effective decreased 0.32 0.08–0.19, suggesting twofold fourfold increase fitness. Furthermore, successful establishment represents an important step toward restoring metapopulation. Robust partnerships communities hunters, coupled transparent communication, helped maintain stakeholder throughout efforts. Lessons learned about importance involvement conducted provide example further restore carnivores human‐dominated ecosystems.

Язык: Английский

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Modelling spatially autocorrelated detection probabilities in spatial capture-recapture using random effects

Ecological Modelling, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 479, С. 110324 - 110324

Опубликована: Фев. 24, 2023

Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models are now widely used for estimating density from repeated individual spatial encounters. SCR accounts the inherent autocorrelation in detections by modelling detection probabilities as a function of distance between detectors and activity centres. However, additional heterogeneity probability may still creep due to environmental or sampling characteristics. if unaccounted for, such variation can lead pronounced bias population size estimates. In this paper, we address issue describing three Bayesian that use generalized linear mixed (GLMM) approach account latent baseline across with: independent random effects (RE), spatially autocorrelated (SARE) with components prior covariance matrix modelled decreasing inter-detector distance, two-group finite mixture model (FM) identify detectability classes each detector. We test these using simulation study an empirical application non-invasive genetic monitoring data set female brown bears (Ursus arctos) central Sweden. study, all largely succeeded mitigating biasing effect heterogeneous on Overall, SARE provided least biased estimates (median RB: -9% – 6%). When was high, also performed best at predicting pattern probability. At intermediate levels autocorrelation, spatially-explicit obtained FM were more accurate than those generated RE. The example revealed patterns consistent results study. found ignoring led 22% lower estimate bear compared accounted it (i.e., RE models). number per detector is low (≤1), GLMMs considered here require dimension reduction pooling parameters neighbouring ("aggregation") avoid over-parameterization. added complexity computational overhead associated SCR-GLMMs only be justified extreme cases heterogeneity, e.g., large clusters inactive unbeknownst investigator. even less cases, detecting assist planning adjusting schemes.

Язык: Английский

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Spatial variation in red deer density in a transboundary forest ecosystem

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 13(1)

Опубликована: Март 20, 2023

Forests in Europe are exposed to increasingly frequent and severe disturbances. The resulting changes the structure composition of forests can have profound consequences for wildlife inhabiting them. Moreover, populations often subjected differential management regimes as they regularly extend across multiple national administrative borders. red deer Cervus elaphus population Bohemian Forest Ecosystem, straddling Czech-German border, has experienced forest disturbances, primarily caused by windfalls bark beetle Ips typographus outbreaks during past decades. To adapt local strategies changing environmental conditions coordinate them international reliable estimates density abundance highly sought-after policymakers, managers, stakeholders. Covering a 1081-km2 study area, we conducted transnational non-invasive DNA sampling 2018 that yielded 1578 genotyped samples from 1120 individual deer. Using spatial capture-recapture models, estimated total jurisdiction-specific throughout ecosystem quantified role disturbance shaping heterogeneity density. We hypothesised (a) disturbances provide favourable habitat (e.g., forage cover), (b) contrasting different jurisdictions create risk landscape, ultimately distributions. Overall, 2851 (95% Credible Interval = 2609-3119) resided area period, with relatively even overall sex ratio (1406 females, 95% CI 1229-1612 1445 males, 1288-1626). average was higher Czechia (3.5 km-2, 1.2-12.3) compared Germany (2 0.2-11). effect on context-dependent. had positive at elevations negative lower elevations, which could be explained partial migration its drivers this population. Density generally units where hunting is prohibited. In addition, found ratios differed between were more balanced non-intervention zones. Our results show wild ungulates modulated additional factors, such elevation ungulate practices. Overall patterns suggested strong gradients units. With climate change increasing severity frequency population-level monitoring becoming important, especially wide-ranging species both global transcend boundaries.

Язык: Английский

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Estimating abundance of a recovering transboundary brown bear population with capture-recapture models

Peer Community Journal, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 2

Опубликована: Ноя. 21, 2022

Estimating the size of small populations large mammals can be achieved via censuses, or complete counts, recognizable individuals detected over a time period: minimum (population) (MDS). However, as population grows larger and its spatial distribution expands, risk under-estimating using MDS rapidly increases because assumption perfect detection all in is violated. The need to report uncertainty around estimates consequently becomes crucial. We explored these biases monitoring framework critically endangered Pyrenean brown bear that was close extinction mid-1990s, with only five remaining, but subsequently bolstered by introduction 11 bears from Slovenia. Each year since 1996, abundance has been assessed retained (MRS), which corresponded reassessment light new information collected subsequent years (e.g., adding were not previous current year). used Pollock's closed robust design (PCRD) capture-recapture models applied cross-border non-invasive sampling data France, Spain Andorra provide first published annual temporal trend 2008. Annual increased fivefold between 2008 2020, going 13 66 individuals. PCRD globally MRS counts had reasonably narrow associated 95% Credibility Intervals. Even cases where effort compared size, diverge counts. individual heterogeneity might stem intraspecific home range variation result move most being likely detected. also found cubs higher mortality rate than adults subadults, infanticide males, predation, maternal death, abandonment. Overall, modelling approach provides demographic rates population, together uncertainty, while minimizing bias due inter-individual probabilities. strongly encourage wildlife ecologists managers use approaches when researching mammal populations. Such vital for informing management decision-making assessing conservation status.

Язык: Английский

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Douglas fir and Norway spruce have similar effects on small mammal density, but not survival, in Central European managed forests

Mammalian Biology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 104(1), С. 25 - 39

Опубликована: Ноя. 8, 2023

Abstract In an effort to ameliorate the impacts of climate change, forest managers in Central Europe increasingly turn conifer species that produce higher yields and are better adapted projected future climatic conditions. Though small mammals important component ecosystem, enriching native broadleaf forests with conifers on mammal communities not well understood. We conducted mark–recapture surveys ascertain differences their community structure among stands two (native Norway spruce Picea abies non-native Douglas fir Pseudotsuga menziesii ) dominant region, European beech ( Fagus sylvatica ). After estimating density common species, yellow-necked mouse Apodemus flavicollis bank vole Clethrionomys glareolus , we found population each is positively related proportion negatively stand, though these effects stand composition smaller than positive effect herb cover. Increasing reduced monthly survival mammals, while had a survival. conclude have similar density, overall was significantly lower plots spruce. This suggests increasing at expense may be possible without changing local patterns but further research necessary elucidate exact demography behavior.

Язык: Английский

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Shining a light on elusive lynx: Density estimation of three Eurasian lynx populations in Ukraine and Belarus

Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 13(11)

Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2023

The Eurasian lynx is a large carnivore widely distributed across Eurasia. However, our understanding of population status heterogeneous their range, with some populations isolated that are at risk reduced genetic variation and complete lack information about others. In many European countries, monitored through demographic studies crucial for conservation management. Even so, there only rough fragmented assessments from Ukraine Belarus, despite strict protection in both countries importance connectivity Europe. We October 2020 to March 2021 used camera trapping combination spatial capture-recapture (SCR) methods Bayesian framework provide the first SCR density estimation three including Ukrainian Chornobyl Exclusion Zone, southern Belarus Carpathians. Our estimates varied within study areas ranging 0.45 1.54 individuals/100 km

Язык: Английский

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A Monte Carlo resampling framework for implementing goodness‐of‐fit tests in spatial capture‐recapture models

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(9), С. 1653 - 1666

Опубликована: Июль 15, 2024

Abstract Spatial capture‐recapture (SCR) models provide estimates of animal density from spatially referenced encounter data and has become the most widely adopted approach for estimating density. Despite rapid growth in development application spatial methods, approaches assessing model fit have received very little attention when compared to other classes hierarchical ecology. Here, we develop an testing goodness‐of‐fit (GoF) frequentist SCR using Monte Carlo simulations. We derive probability distributions activity centres fitted model. From these, calculate expected encounters capture history based on parameter estimates, propagating uncertainty centre locations via Aggregating these test statistics result count data, allowing us with Freeman‐Tukey tests. These tests are summary total each individual at trap (FT‐ind‐trap), (FT‐individuals) (FT‐traps). assess ability GoF diagnose lack under a range assumption violating scenarios. FT‐traps had strongest response unmodelled heterogeneity detection (power = 0.53–0.56), while FT‐ind‐traps responses random variation detectability 0.88) non‐spatial discrete 0.35). The tests, designed poor parameters, were insensitive <0.001). They also demonstrated low false positive rates (<0.001) correct fitted; therefore, it is unlikely that they will indications fit. demonstrate capable detecting lack‐of‐fit present sub‐model. When used jointly, combinations results able infer type certain cases. Our sampling methods may be extended wider thereby providing platform developing more SCR.

Язык: Английский

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