Predictability of COVID-19 worldwide lethality using permutation-information theory quantifiers

Results in Physics, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 26, С. 104306 - 104306

Опубликована: Май 13, 2021

This paper examines the predictability of COVID-19 worldwide lethality considering 43 countries. Based on values inherent to Permutation entropy (Hs) and Fisher information measure (Fs), we apply Shannon-Fisher causality plane (SFCP), which allows us quantify disorder an evaluate randomness present in time series daily death cases related each country. We also use Hs Fs rank these countries based complexity hierarchy. Our results suggest that most proactive implemented measures such as facemasks, social distancing, quarantine, massive population testing, hygienic (sanitary) orientations limit impacts COVID-19, implied lower (higher predictability) lethality. In contrast, reactive implementing depicted higher (lower Given this, our findings shed light preventive are efficient combat

Язык: Английский

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Studying the impact of fluctuations, spikes and rare events in time series through a wavelet entropy predictability measure

Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 641, С. 129720 - 129720

Опубликована: Март 30, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Systematic bias in studies of consumer functional responses

Ecology Letters, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 24(3), С. 580 - 593

Опубликована: Дек. 31, 2020

Abstract Functional responses are a cornerstone to our understanding of consumer–resource interactions, so how best describe them using models has been actively debated. Here we focus on the consumer dependence functional evidence systematic bias in statistical comparison functional‐response and estimation their parameters. Both forms universal nonlinear (irrespective dependence) rooted lack sufficient replication. Using large compilation published datasets, show that – due prevalence low sample size studies neither overall frequency by which alternative achieve top rank nor distribution parameter point estimates should be treated as providing insight into general form or central tendency interference. We call for renewed clarity varied purposes motivate study responses, can compete with each other dictating design, analysis interpretation experiments.

Язык: Английский

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INSIGHTS INTO THE PREDICTABILITY AND SIMILARITY OF COVID-19 WORLDWIDE LETHALITY

Fractals, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 29(07)

Опубликована: Июль 21, 2021

This paper performs a systematic investigation into the temporal evolution of daily death cases COVID-19 worldwide lethality considering 90 countries. We apply information theory quantifiers, more specifically Permutation entropy [Formula: see text] and Fisher measure to construct Shannon-Fisher causality plane (SFCP), which allows us quantify disorder evaluate randomness present in time series related each country. Moreover, we employ rank these countries based on complexity hierarchy. Our findings reveal that are located farther from random ideal position ([Formula: text], text]) SFCP such as Taiwan, Vietnam, New Zealand, Singapore, Monaco, Iceland, Thailand, Bahamas, Cyprus, Australia, Norway characterized by less low disorder, leads high predictability lethality. Otherwise, near Ecuador, Czechia, Iraq, Colombia, Belgium, Italy, Philippines, Iran, Peru, Japan implies also two cluster techniques analyze similarity for investigated. Based values our analysis, suggest this health crisis will only be adequately combated through global adherence scientific exchange technology sharing homogenize actions combat COVID-19.

Язык: Английский

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Ranking species based on sensitivity to perturbations under non‐equilibrium community dynamics

Ecology Letters, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 26(1), С. 170 - 183

Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2022

Managing ecological communities requires fast detection of species that are sensitive to perturbations. Yet, the focus on recovery equilibrium has prevented us from assessing responses perturbations when abundances fluctuate over time. Here, we introduce two data-driven approaches (expected sensitivity and eigenvector rankings) based time-varying Jacobian matrix rank time according their abundances. Using several population dynamics models, demonstrate can infer these rankings time-series data predict order sensitivities. We find most not always ones with rapidly changing or lowest abundance, which typical criteria used monitor populations. Finally, using empirical series, show tend be harder forecast. Our results suggest incorporating information interactions improve how manage out equilibrium.

Язык: Английский

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Allometric Trophic Networks From Individuals to Socio-Ecosystems: Consumer–Resource Theory of the Ecological Elephant in the Room

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 8

Опубликована: Май 27, 2020

A well-known parable is that of the blind men studying an elephant each which assert part they first hold in their hands e.g., "rope!" says tail holder while leg asserts "tree!" The various subdisciplines ecology appear similar we engage our enthusiastic but at least somewhat myopic study with a remarkably limited agreement or even discussion about overall system all study. Allometric trophic network (ATN) theory offers path out this dilemma by integrating across scales, taxa, habitats and organizational levels from physiology to ecosystems based on consumer-resource interactions among co-existing organisms. architecture metabolic behavioral processes determine structure dynamics these form principles ATN theory, turn provides synthetic overview powerfully predictive framework for organisms ecosystems. Beyond ecology, also synthesizes eco-evolutionary socio-ecological research still largely mechanisms respectively integrated including natural selection market mechanisms. This paper briefly describes foundations, advances, future directions predicting ecosystem's phenotype its community's genotype order accelerate more unified understanding complex systems studied ecologists other environmental scientists.

Язык: Английский

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Resolving the consequences of gradual phenotypic plasticity for populations in variable environments

Ecological Monographs, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 91(4)

Опубликована: Июль 9, 2021

Abstract Phenotypic adjustments following environmental change are ubiquitous, and trait changes arising through phenotypic plasticity often lag behind their stimuli. Evolutionary biologists seeking to understand how adaptive can evolve have extensively studied this phenomenon. However, the ecological consequences of common features plastic responses variability, including gradual (i.e., slower than pace change), underappreciated. We present a framework based on unifying concept phenotype × environment performance landscapes that encompasses plasticity. Then, we experimentally investigate contexts where is important, using freshwater phytoplankton populations exposed thermal variation. Finally, our conceptual framework, develop mathematical model explains population dynamics in variable environments better alternative models. Understanding accounting for effects critical making vital predictions advancing ecology.

Язык: Английский

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An operational framework for defining and forecasting phytoplankton blooms

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 19(8), С. 443 - 450

Опубликована: Июль 6, 2021

Phytoplankton blooms are complex ecological events that emerge from the dynamics of an entire ecosystem. Increasing efforts to forecast hampered by inconsistent definitions what constitutes a bloom event, both conceptual (mechanistic) and empirical (quantitative) perspectives. By clarifying using temporal system dynamics, we propose target modeling forecasting methods appropriate settings, generate testable hypotheses into underlying processes fueling development. Here, present general definition highlights growth loss processes, identify quantitative metrics time‐series structure associated with several subclasses blooms. We hypothesize consistent these structures, suggest promising approaches for different types

Язык: Английский

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Rethinking the Prevalence and Relevance of Chaos in Ecology

Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 53(1), С. 227 - 249

Опубликована: Ноя. 2, 2022

Chaos was proposed in the 1970s as an alternative explanation for apparently noisy fluctuations population size. Although readily demonstrated models, search chaos nature proved challenging and led many to conclude that is either rare or nigh impossible detect. However, intervening half-century, it has become clear ecosystems are replete with enabling conditions chaos. been repeatedly under laboratory found field data using updated detection methods. Together, these developments indicate apparent rarity of artifact limitations overreliance on low-dimensional models. We invite readers reevaluate relevance ecology, we suggest not undetectable previously believed.

Язык: Английский

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Wavelet analysis and energy-based measures for oil-food price relationship as a footprint of financialisation effect

Resources Policy, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 77, С. 102692 - 102692

Опубликована: Апрель 11, 2022

Язык: Английский

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