Projecting Changes in the Drivers of Compound Flooding in Europe Using CMIP6 Models DOI Creative Commons
Tim H. J. Hermans, Julius Busecke, Thomas Wahl

и другие.

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12(5)

Опубликована: Апрель 30, 2024

Abstract When different flooding drivers co‐occur, they can cause compound floods. Despite the potential impact of flooding, few studies have projected how joint probability may change. Furthermore, existing projections not be very robust, as are based on only 5 to 6 climate model simulations. Here, we use a large ensemble simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) project changes in extreme storm surges and precipitation at European tide gauges under medium high emissions scenario, enabled by data‐proximate cloud computing statistical surge modeling. We find that will increase northwest decrease most southwest Europe. Averaged over Europe, absolute magnitude these is 36%–49% 2080, depending scenario. The large‐scale similar those wind speeds precipitation, but locally, differences exceed themselves. Due internal variability inter‐model differences, randomly chosen CMIP6 models higher than 10% differ qualitatively all multiple regions, especially scenario earlier twenty‐first century. Therefore, our results provide more robust less uncertain representation for Europe previous projections.

Язык: Английский

Europe DOI Open Access
D. E. Portner,

M. Scot Roberts,

Peter Alexander

и другие.

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown, С. 1817 - 1928

Опубликована: Июнь 22, 2023

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Язык: Английский

Процитировано

73
How well have CMIP3, CMIP5 and CMIP6 future climate projections portrayed the recently observed warming DOI Creative Commons
D. Carvalho, Sandra Rafael, Alexandra Monteiro

и другие.

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 12(1)

Опубликована: Июль 14, 2022

Abstract Despite the dire conclusions of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports in terms global warming and its impacts Earth’s climate, ecosystems human society, a skepticism claiming that projected is alarmist or, at least, overestimated, still persists. Given years passed since future climate projections served as basis for IPCC 4th, 5th 6th were released, it now possible to answer this fundamental question if has been over or underestimated. This study presents comparison between CMIP3, CMIP5 CMIP6 temperature observations. The results show by all CMIPs scenarios here analyzed project slightly lower than observed one. closer upper level ones, revealing with higher GHG emissions appear be most realistic ones. These have conservative up 2020, which could suggest similar cold bias their end current century. However, given short periods analyzed, inferences about longer timescales cannot done confidence, models internal variability can play relevant role 20 less.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

47
Projections of Global Land Runoff Changes and Their Uncertainty Characteristics During the 21st Century DOI Creative Commons
Chiyuan Miao,

Yi Wu,

Xuewei Fan

и другие.

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11(4)

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2023

Abstract Quantifying uncertainty in runoff changes has profound implications for future investigations and will support global climate model improvement. We analyze the from outputs of 5th 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 CMIP6) decompose projected into three main sources: internal variability, uncertainty, scenario uncertainty. The results indicate that 73% 72% land area, respectively, shows an increase CMIP5 CMIP6 under high‐emissions scenarios long term (2070–2099) relative to 1970–1999, across all increases by 10.8% RCP8.5 16.1% SSP5–8.5 during 2070–2099 1970–1999. Regions with increasing are mainly Southeast Asia, eastern Africa, Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau high latitudes Northern Hemisphere. agreement is greater than low‐emissions scenarios. For (RRC) CMIP6, contribution variability gradually decreases over time (from 49.2% 2.0%) while 0.6% 30.0%); this result similar CMIP5. Spatially, RRC been a major source accounting more 60% total most regions. study help us better understand also provide theoretical basis developing mitigation measures changes.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

24
The effect of green infrastructure on resilience performance in combined sewer systems under climate change DOI Creative Commons
Mayra Rodríguez, Guangtao Fu, David Butler

и другие.

Journal of Environmental Management, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 353, С. 120229 - 120229

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2024

Climate change is currently reshaping precipitation patterns, intensifying extremes, and altering runoff dynamics. Particularly susceptible to these impacts are combined sewer systems (CSS), which convey both stormwater wastewater can lead overflow (CSO) discharges during heavy rainfall. Green infrastructure (GI) help mitigate enhance system resilience under historical conditions; however, the quantification of its effect on in a future climate remains unknown literature. This study employs modified Global Resilience Analysis (GRA) framework for continuous simulation quantify impact CSS resilience, particularly CSOs. The assesses efficacy GI interventions (green roofs, permeable pavements, bioretention cells) diverse rainfall scenarios based EURO-CORDEX regional models (2085–2099) three Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 8.5 W/m2). findings underscore general decline indices across considered. Notably, total yearly CSO discharge volume increases by range 145 % 256 response different scenarios. While proves effective increasing it falls short offsetting change. Among options assessed, green roofs routed pervious areas exhibit highest adaptive capacity, ranging from 9 22 at level, followed pavements with an adaptation capacity between 7 13 %. By linking effects performance, this contributes understanding GI's potential as strategic tool enhancing urban resilience.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

18
Projected increase in widespread riverine floods in India under a warming climate DOI

J. S. Nanditha,

Vimal Mishra

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 630, С. 130734 - 130734

Опубликована: Янв. 24, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

10
Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over the Iberian Peninsula under Climate Change Scenarios: A Review DOI Open Access

Susana Cardoso Pereira,

D. Carvalho, Alfredo Rocha

и другие.

Climate, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 9(9), С. 139 - 139

Опубликована: Сен. 14, 2021

This paper presents the results of a systematic review temperature and precipitation extremes over Iberian Peninsula, focusing on observed changes in during past years what are projected by end 21st century. The purpose this is to assess current literature about extreme events their change under global warming. Observational climate modeling studies from decade were considered review. Based observational evidence experiments, mean maximum temperatures increase 2 °C around mid-century up 4 more pronounced warming expected summer for central-south region IP, with reaching 6 8 2100. Days exceeding 30 40 will become common (20 50 days/year), heatwaves be 7 10 times frequent. Significative reduction related cold extremes. signal IP shows considerable decline (10–15%) all seasons except winter. It predicted that heavy 7% 15%. Extreme slightly (5%) mid-century, then 0% Significant wet days (40% 60%) followed dryness trend

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

47
Evaluating the uncertainty of climate model structure and bias correction on the hydrological impact of projected climate change in a Mediterranean catchment DOI Creative Commons
Alfonso Senatore,

Domenico Fuoco,

Mario Maiolo

и другие.

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 42, С. 101120 - 101120

Опубликована: Июнь 3, 2022

Crati River Basin, Southern Italy, Central Mediterranean. We evaluate the combined effect of multiple global and regional climate model (GCM-RCM) combinations bias correction (BC) methods on hydrological impact projected change. Under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5, 15 EURO-CORDEX members, combining 6 GCMs five high-resolution (0.11°) RCMs, provide meteorological input for a spatially distributed model. RCM-derived data are uncorrected corrected through three empirical methods, leading to 60 different simulations ~30-year future periods in 2020–2096, compared baseline 1975–2005. The uncertainty models is evaluated main variables using an analysis variance (ANOVA) method. Results highlight considerable agreement projecting decreasing trend available water resources (on average, −70 % snow, −8 root zone soil moisture −17 river runoff period 2070–2096), due remarkable mean temperature increase less accentuated precipitation reduction. evaluation shows that (1) primary source driving GCM, (2) BC smooth not negligible way, especially concerning discharge (for each period, reduction without about 3 higher than with BC), therefore contributing total uncertainty.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

36
Analysis of high streamflow extremes in climate change studies: how do we calibrate hydrological models? DOI Creative Commons
Bruno Majone, Diego Avesani, Patrick Zulian

и другие.

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 26(14), С. 3863 - 3883

Опубликована: Июль 25, 2022

Abstract. Climate change impact studies on hydrological extremes often rely models with parameters inferred through calibration procedures using observed meteorological data as input forcing. We show that this procedure can lead to a biased evaluation of the probability distribution high streamflow when climate are used. As an alternative approach, we introduce methodology, coined “Hydrological Calibration eXtremes” (HyCoX), in which model, driven by model output, is carried out maximizing modeled and belong same statistical population. The application Adige River catchment (southeastern Alps, Italy) means HYPERstreamHS, distributed showed preserves coherence produces reliable quantiles annual maximum be used assessment studies.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

35
Flood projections for selected Costa Rican main basins using CMIP6 climate models downscaled output in the HBV hydrological model for scenario SSP5-8.5 DOI Creative Commons
Hugo G. Hidalgo, Eric J. Alfaro, Adolfo Quesada‐Román

и другие.

Hydrological Research Letters, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 18(1), С. 35 - 42

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024

Estimates from 3 statistically downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) version 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, namely EC Earth3, GFDL ESM4 and MPI ESM1 2 HR are used in HBV hydrological model to estimate design streamflow projections with 20, 50, 100-year return periods for selected main basins Costa Rica. The changes these streamflows were computed between baseline period (1985–2015) mid-century projection (2035–2065) SSP5-8.5 scenario. novelty resides being first study that explores magnitude climate flows Rica, a tropical country. Although, calibration validation statistics generally good most basins, only around one quarter simulations reproduce observed distribution 3-day annual maximum flows. Results show presents lower sensitivity different sign depending on basin studied other two models suggest significant increases flow basins. model's ensemble suggests great concern, as there is general increase flows, magnitudes large, especially Pacific slope.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

9
Analysing Urban Flooding Risk with CMIP5 and CMIP6 Climate Projections DOI Open Access

Rafiu Oyelakin,

Wenyu Yang, Peter Krebs

и другие.

Water, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(3), С. 474 - 474

Опубликована: Янв. 31, 2024

Fitting probability distribution functions to observed data is the standard way compute future design floods, but may not accurately reflect projected pattern of extreme events related climate change. In applying latest coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5 and CMIP6), this research investigates how likely it that precipitation changes in CMIP5 CMIP6 will affect both magnitude frequency flood analysis. GCM output from four modelling institutes CMIP5, with representative pathway concentration (RCP8.5) corresponding shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP585), were selected for historical periods, before was statistically downscaled cities by using delta, quantile mapping (QM), empirical (EQM). On basis performance evaluation, a rainfall-runoff hydrological developed stormwater management (SWMM) CMIPs CMIP6) horizons. The results reveal an unprecedented increase events, (historical) (future) projections. years 2070–2080 identified as experiencing most severe flooding.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

8