Abstract
When
different
flooding
drivers
co‐occur,
they
can
cause
compound
floods.
Despite
the
potential
impact
of
flooding,
few
studies
have
projected
how
joint
probability
may
change.
Furthermore,
existing
projections
not
be
very
robust,
as
are
based
on
only
5
to
6
climate
model
simulations.
Here,
we
use
a
large
ensemble
simulations
from
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
(CMIP6)
project
changes
in
extreme
storm
surges
and
precipitation
at
European
tide
gauges
under
medium
high
emissions
scenario,
enabled
by
data‐proximate
cloud
computing
statistical
surge
modeling.
We
find
that
will
increase
northwest
decrease
most
southwest
Europe.
Averaged
over
Europe,
absolute
magnitude
these
is
36%–49%
2080,
depending
scenario.
The
large‐scale
similar
those
wind
speeds
precipitation,
but
locally,
differences
exceed
themselves.
Due
internal
variability
inter‐model
differences,
randomly
chosen
CMIP6
models
higher
than
10%
differ
qualitatively
all
multiple
regions,
especially
scenario
earlier
twenty‐first
century.
Therefore,
our
results
provide
more
robust
less
uncertain
representation
for
Europe
previous
projections.
Scientific Reports,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
12(1)
Опубликована: Июль 14, 2022
Abstract
Despite
the
dire
conclusions
of
Intergovernmental
Panel
on
Climate
Change
(IPCC)
Assessment
Reports
in
terms
global
warming
and
its
impacts
Earth’s
climate,
ecosystems
human
society,
a
skepticism
claiming
that
projected
is
alarmist
or,
at
least,
overestimated,
still
persists.
Given
years
passed
since
future
climate
projections
served
as
basis
for
IPCC
4th,
5th
6th
were
released,
it
now
possible
to
answer
this
fundamental
question
if
has
been
over
or
underestimated.
This
study
presents
comparison
between
CMIP3,
CMIP5
CMIP6
temperature
observations.
The
results
show
by
all
CMIPs
scenarios
here
analyzed
project
slightly
lower
than
observed
one.
closer
upper
level
ones,
revealing
with
higher
GHG
emissions
appear
be
most
realistic
ones.
These
have
conservative
up
2020,
which
could
suggest
similar
cold
bias
their
end
current
century.
However,
given
short
periods
analyzed,
inferences
about
longer
timescales
cannot
done
confidence,
models
internal
variability
can
play
relevant
role
20
less.
Abstract
Quantifying
uncertainty
in
runoff
changes
has
profound
implications
for
future
investigations
and
will
support
global
climate
model
improvement.
We
analyze
the
from
outputs
of
5th
6th
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Projects
(CMIP5
CMIP6)
decompose
projected
into
three
main
sources:
internal
variability,
uncertainty,
scenario
uncertainty.
The
results
indicate
that
73%
72%
land
area,
respectively,
shows
an
increase
CMIP5
CMIP6
under
high‐emissions
scenarios
long
term
(2070–2099)
relative
to
1970–1999,
across
all
increases
by
10.8%
RCP8.5
16.1%
SSP5–8.5
during
2070–2099
1970–1999.
Regions
with
increasing
are
mainly
Southeast
Asia,
eastern
Africa,
Qinghai‐Tibet
Plateau
high
latitudes
Northern
Hemisphere.
agreement
is
greater
than
low‐emissions
scenarios.
For
(RRC)
CMIP6,
contribution
variability
gradually
decreases
over
time
(from
49.2%
2.0%)
while
0.6%
30.0%);
this
result
similar
CMIP5.
Spatially,
RRC
been
a
major
source
accounting
more
60%
total
most
regions.
study
help
us
better
understand
also
provide
theoretical
basis
developing
mitigation
measures
changes.
Journal of Environmental Management,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
353, С. 120229 - 120229
Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2024
Climate
change
is
currently
reshaping
precipitation
patterns,
intensifying
extremes,
and
altering
runoff
dynamics.
Particularly
susceptible
to
these
impacts
are
combined
sewer
systems
(CSS),
which
convey
both
stormwater
wastewater
can
lead
overflow
(CSO)
discharges
during
heavy
rainfall.
Green
infrastructure
(GI)
help
mitigate
enhance
system
resilience
under
historical
conditions;
however,
the
quantification
of
its
effect
on
in
a
future
climate
remains
unknown
literature.
This
study
employs
modified
Global
Resilience
Analysis
(GRA)
framework
for
continuous
simulation
quantify
impact
CSS
resilience,
particularly
CSOs.
The
assesses
efficacy
GI
interventions
(green
roofs,
permeable
pavements,
bioretention
cells)
diverse
rainfall
scenarios
based
EURO-CORDEX
regional
models
(2085–2099)
three
Representative
Concentration
Pathways
(2.6,
4.5,
8.5
W/m2).
findings
underscore
general
decline
indices
across
considered.
Notably,
total
yearly
CSO
discharge
volume
increases
by
range
145
%
256
response
different
scenarios.
While
proves
effective
increasing
it
falls
short
offsetting
change.
Among
options
assessed,
green
roofs
routed
pervious
areas
exhibit
highest
adaptive
capacity,
ranging
from
9
22
at
level,
followed
pavements
with
an
adaptation
capacity
between
7
13
%.
By
linking
effects
performance,
this
contributes
understanding
GI's
potential
as
strategic
tool
enhancing
urban
resilience.
Climate,
Год журнала:
2021,
Номер
9(9), С. 139 - 139
Опубликована: Сен. 14, 2021
This
paper
presents
the
results
of
a
systematic
review
temperature
and
precipitation
extremes
over
Iberian
Peninsula,
focusing
on
observed
changes
in
during
past
years
what
are
projected
by
end
21st
century.
The
purpose
this
is
to
assess
current
literature
about
extreme
events
their
change
under
global
warming.
Observational
climate
modeling
studies
from
decade
were
considered
review.
Based
observational
evidence
experiments,
mean
maximum
temperatures
increase
2
°C
around
mid-century
up
4
more
pronounced
warming
expected
summer
for
central-south
region
IP,
with
reaching
6
8
2100.
Days
exceeding
30
40
will
become
common
(20
50
days/year),
heatwaves
be
7
10
times
frequent.
Significative
reduction
related
cold
extremes.
signal
IP
shows
considerable
decline
(10–15%)
all
seasons
except
winter.
It
predicted
that
heavy
7%
15%.
Extreme
slightly
(5%)
mid-century,
then
0%
Significant
wet
days
(40%
60%)
followed
dryness
trend
Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
42, С. 101120 - 101120
Опубликована: Июнь 3, 2022
Crati
River
Basin,
Southern
Italy,
Central
Mediterranean.
We
evaluate
the
combined
effect
of
multiple
global
and
regional
climate
model
(GCM-RCM)
combinations
bias
correction
(BC)
methods
on
hydrological
impact
projected
change.
Under
representative
concentration
pathway
RCP4.5,
15
EURO-CORDEX
members,
combining
6
GCMs
five
high-resolution
(0.11°)
RCMs,
provide
meteorological
input
for
a
spatially
distributed
model.
RCM-derived
data
are
uncorrected
corrected
through
three
empirical
methods,
leading
to
60
different
simulations
~30-year
future
periods
in
2020–2096,
compared
baseline
1975–2005.
The
uncertainty
models
is
evaluated
main
variables
using
an
analysis
variance
(ANOVA)
method.
Results
highlight
considerable
agreement
projecting
decreasing
trend
available
water
resources
(on
average,
−70
%
snow,
−8
root
zone
soil
moisture
−17
river
runoff
period
2070–2096),
due
remarkable
mean
temperature
increase
less
accentuated
precipitation
reduction.
evaluation
shows
that
(1)
primary
source
driving
GCM,
(2)
BC
smooth
not
negligible
way,
especially
concerning
discharge
(for
each
period,
reduction
without
about
3
higher
than
with
BC),
therefore
contributing
total
uncertainty.
Hydrology and earth system sciences,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
26(14), С. 3863 - 3883
Опубликована: Июль 25, 2022
Abstract.
Climate
change
impact
studies
on
hydrological
extremes
often
rely
models
with
parameters
inferred
through
calibration
procedures
using
observed
meteorological
data
as
input
forcing.
We
show
that
this
procedure
can
lead
to
a
biased
evaluation
of
the
probability
distribution
high
streamflow
when
climate
are
used.
As
an
alternative
approach,
we
introduce
methodology,
coined
“Hydrological
Calibration
eXtremes”
(HyCoX),
in
which
model,
driven
by
model
output,
is
carried
out
maximizing
modeled
and
belong
same
statistical
population.
The
application
Adige
River
catchment
(southeastern
Alps,
Italy)
means
HYPERstreamHS,
distributed
showed
preserves
coherence
produces
reliable
quantiles
annual
maximum
be
used
assessment
studies.
Hydrological Research Letters,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
18(1), С. 35 - 42
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2024
Estimates
from
3
statistically
downscaled
General
Circulation
Models
(GCMs)
version
6
of
the
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project,
namely
EC
Earth3,
GFDL
ESM4
and
MPI
ESM1
2
HR
are
used
in
HBV
hydrological
model
to
estimate
design
streamflow
projections
with
20,
50,
100-year
return
periods
for
selected
main
basins
Costa
Rica.
The
changes
these
streamflows
were
computed
between
baseline
period
(1985–2015)
mid-century
projection
(2035–2065)
SSP5-8.5
scenario.
novelty
resides
being
first
study
that
explores
magnitude
climate
flows
Rica,
a
tropical
country.
Although,
calibration
validation
statistics
generally
good
most
basins,
only
around
one
quarter
simulations
reproduce
observed
distribution
3-day
annual
maximum
flows.
Results
show
presents
lower
sensitivity
different
sign
depending
on
basin
studied
other
two
models
suggest
significant
increases
flow
basins.
model's
ensemble
suggests
great
concern,
as
there
is
general
increase
flows,
magnitudes
large,
especially
Pacific
slope.
Water,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
16(3), С. 474 - 474
Опубликована: Янв. 31, 2024
Fitting
probability
distribution
functions
to
observed
data
is
the
standard
way
compute
future
design
floods,
but
may
not
accurately
reflect
projected
pattern
of
extreme
events
related
climate
change.
In
applying
latest
coupled
model
intercomparison
project
(CMIP5
and
CMIP6),
this
research
investigates
how
likely
it
that
precipitation
changes
in
CMIP5
CMIP6
will
affect
both
magnitude
frequency
flood
analysis.
GCM
output
from
four
modelling
institutes
CMIP5,
with
representative
pathway
concentration
(RCP8.5)
corresponding
shared
socioeconomic
pathways
(SSP585),
were
selected
for
historical
periods,
before
was
statistically
downscaled
cities
by
using
delta,
quantile
mapping
(QM),
empirical
(EQM).
On
basis
performance
evaluation,
a
rainfall-runoff
hydrological
developed
stormwater
management
(SWMM)
CMIPs
CMIP6)
horizons.
The
results
reveal
an
unprecedented
increase
events,
(historical)
(future)
projections.
years
2070–2080
identified
as
experiencing
most
severe
flooding.