Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities

Nature Medicine, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 27, 2025

Язык: Английский

---

Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat‐related mortality varies from country to country

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 43(12), С. 5553 - 5568

Опубликована: Июль 12, 2023

Abstract Combined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat‐related mortality, more so than dry‐bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing first systematic comparison eight stress metrics (i.e., combined with other climate variables) warm‐season in 604 locations over 39 countries, we find that optimal metric for modelling mortality varies from country to country. Temperature no or little modification associates best ~40% studied countries. Apparent (combined temperature, wind speed) dominates another 40% There obvious grouping these results. We recommend, where possible, researchers use each However, performs similarly humidity‐based estimating present‐day climate.

Язык: Английский

---

Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world

Frontiers in Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 2

Опубликована: Окт. 1, 2024

The reality of human-induced climate change is unequivocal and exerts an ever-increasing global impact. Access to the latest scientific information on current projection future trends important for planning adaptation measures informing international efforts reduce emissions greenhouse gases (GHGs). Identification hazards risks may be used assess vulnerability, determine limits adaptation, enhance resilience change. This article highlights how recent research programs are continuing elucidate processes advance projections across major systems identifies remaining knowledge gaps. Key findings include projected increases in monsoon rainfall, resulting from a changing balance between rainfall-reducing effect aerosols rainfall-increasing GHGs; strengthening storm track North Atlantic; increase fraction precipitation that falls as rain at both poles; frequency severity El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, along with changes ENSO teleconnections America Europe; hazardous hot-humid extremes. These have potential human natural systems. Nevertheless, these reduced via urgent, science-led by reductions GHGs.

Язык: Английский

---

Regional variation in the role of humidity on city-level heat-related mortality

PNAS Nexus, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 3(8)

Опубликована: Июль 25, 2024

Abstract The rising humid heat is regarded as a severe threat to human survivability, but the proper integration of into heat-health alerts still being explored. Using state-of-the-art epidemiological and climatological datasets, we examined association between multiple stress indicators (HSIs) daily mortality in 739 cities worldwide. Notable differences were observed long-term trends timing events detected by HSIs. Air temperature (Tair) predicts heat-related well with robust negative Tair-relative humidity correlation (CT-RH). However, near-zero or weak positive CT-RH, HSIs considering provide enhanced predictive power compared Tair. Furthermore, magnitude measured could differ largely from those associated Tair many cities. Our findings important insights specific regions where humans are vulnerable can facilitate further enhancement alert systems.

Язык: Английский

---

Evaluating Japan's revised heat-health warning system in the face of recent escalating heat stress

Environmental Research Letters, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 19(5), С. 054002 - 054002

Опубликована: Апрель 4, 2024

Abstract In 2021, the Japanese government changed exposure indicator of national heat-health warning system (HHWS) from air temperature ( T ) to Wet Bulb Globe Temperature WBG ), reflecting growing concerns about escalating humid heat stress. However, a clear validation advantages using stress indicators (HSIs) that combine and humidity in alerts applications are still being explored. Here, by latest epidemiological data (2015–2019) before COVID-19 pandemic, we examined rationality revised HHWS for 47 prefectures Japan. Specifically, investigated predictive power different HSIs modeling mortality morbidity caused diseases (e.g. all causes, circulatory, respiratory, heatstroke) age groups. Our findings revealed substantial differences among identifying periods intense stress, potentially leading activation dates if various were employed. While exhibited comparable performances daily mortality, our analysis demonstrates distinct predictions, quasi-Akaike Information Criterion is much lower than previously used . The merits consistent non-external, as well heatstroke-related morbidity. Overall, this study underscores practicality incorporating early warnings provides critical insights refining mitigate health impacts under future climate change.

Язык: Английский

---

Impacts of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress based on IRRMIP results

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 26, 2025

Irrigation rapidly expanded during the 20th century, affecting climate via water, energy, and biogeochemical changes. Previous assessments of these effects predominantly relied on a single Earth System Model, therefore suffered from structural model uncertainties. Here we quantify impacts historical irrigation expansion by analysing simulation results six system models participating in Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP). Results show that causes rapid increase water withdrawal, which leads to less frequent 2-meter air temperature heat extremes across heavily irrigated areas (≥4 times likely). However, due irrigation-induced humidity, cooling effect moist-heat stress is pronounced or even reversed, depending metric. In summary, this study indicates deployment not an efficient adaptation measure escalating human under change, calling for carefully dealing with increased exposure local people stress. Although century masked reversed warming trends over some intensely regions, population has higher humidity.

Язык: Английский

---

Climate-linked heat inequality in the global southern workforce: Cambodian workers’ economic and health vulnerability to high core temperatures in five occupational sectors

Climate and Development, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 1 - 13

Опубликована: Март 11, 2025

Язык: Английский

---

Heat Stress and Placental Abruption: A Space–Time Stratified Case‐Crossover Study

BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Апрель 10, 2025

ABSTRACT Objective To examine whether heat stress, measured by wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), a comprehensive stress index is associated with placental abruption within 7 days. Design A space–time‐stratified case‐crossover design. Setting All 11 regions in Japan during the warm season (June–September) from 2011 to 2020. Population 6947 cases of were registered Perinatal Registry Network database. Methods Quasi‐Poisson regression distributed lag linear models assessed association between defined as daily maximum WBGT exceeding 95th percentile regional distribution season, and over period 0–7 Stratified analyses examined gestational week (preterm vs. term), hypertensive disorders pregnancy (HDP), small for age (SGA). Main Outcome Measures Clinical diagnosed abruption. Results Heat was an increased risk on 1 (relative [RR]: 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11–1.39) lower 2 (RR: 0.84, CI: 0.74–0.95), negligible cumulative due counterbalancing effects. Similar patterns observed preterm term pregnancies. Individuals HDP showed higher 1.57, 1.31–1.88), did those SGA infants 1.47, 1.26–1.73). Conclusions may increase day after exposure, potentially advancing that might have occurred later, particularly individuals or infants.

Язык: Английский

---

The Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network: An international research consortium investigating environment, climate, and health

Environmental Epidemiology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 8(5), С. e339 - e339

Опубликована: Сен. 10, 2024

Research on the health risks of environmental factors and climate change requires epidemiological evidence associated at a global scale. Multi-center studies offer an excellent framework for this purpose, but they present various methodological logistical problems. This contribution illustrates experience Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network, international collaboration working research program associations between stressors, climate, in multi-center setting. The article collaborative scheme based mutual data method sharing, describes collection huge multi-location database, summarizes published findings future plans, discusses advantages limitations. represents example that has greatly contributed to advance knowledge impacts other can be replicated address questions across fields.

Язык: Английский

---

It's getting hot in here: Spatial impact of humidity on heat wave severity in the U.S.

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 963, С. 178397 - 178397

Опубликована: Янв. 17, 2025

Язык: Английский

---