Spatiotemporal changes in future precipitation of Afghanistan for shared socioeconomic pathways

Heliyon, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 10(7), С. e28433 - e28433

Опубликована: Март 21, 2024

Global warming induces spatially heterogeneous changes in precipitation patterns, highlighting the need to assess these at regional scales. This assessment is particularly critical for Afghanistan, where agriculture serves as primary livelihood population. New global climate model (GCM) simulations have recently been released established shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). requires evaluating projected under new scenarios and subsequent policy updates. research employed six GCMs from CMIP6 project spatial temporal across Afghanistan all SSPs, including SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5. The were bias-corrected using Precipitation Climatological Center's (GPCC) monthly gridded data with a 1.0° resolution. Subsequently, change factor was calculated both near future (2020-2059) distant (2060-2099). projections' multi-model ensemble (MME) revealed increased most of SSPs higher emissions scenarios. showed substantial increase summer around 50%, SSP1-1.9 southwestern region, while decline over 50% northwestern region until 2100. annual northwest up 15% SSP1-2.6. SSP2-4.5 20% certain eastern regions far future. Furthermore, rise approximately SSP3-7.0 expected central western However, it crucial note that exhibit considerable uncertainty among different GCMs.

Язык: Английский

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Comparison of bias correction methods in the arid region of Pakistan

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 1467(1), С. 012026 - 012026

Опубликована: Март 1, 2025

Abstract This study presented the effectiveness of univariate quantile mapping (QM) bias correction and multivariate (MBCn) methods by comparison with European Land Reanalysis (ERA5) gridded dataset in arid region Pakistan. The Girst bias-corrected rainfall (Pr), maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) compared variables ERA5 variables. climate indices such as potential evapotranspiration (PET), aridity index (AI), drought obtained using both were also ERA5-based indices. results revealed MBCn method performed well bias-correcting to QM. It better estimating PET found a similar spatial pattern ERA5. However, QM than time-dependent (multivariate index) at 3-, 6-, 12-months showed patterns frequency occurrence for moderate drought. major Gindings this indicated that is more reliable independent temporal properties region, whereas would be helpful future researchers select suitable region.

Язык: Английский

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Characterization of the future northeast monsoon rainfall based on the clustered climate zone under CMIP6 in Peninsular Malaysia

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 304, С. 107407 - 107407

Опубликована: Апрель 12, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Unveiling Deviations from IPCC Temperature Projections through Bayesian Downscaling and Assessment of CMIP6 General Circulation Models in a Climate-Vulnerable Region

Remote Sensing, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(11), С. 1831 - 1831

Опубликована: Май 21, 2024

The European Mediterranean Basin (Euro-Med), a region particularly vulnerable to global warming, notably lacks research aimed at assessing and enhancing the widely used remote climate detection products known as General Circulation Models (GCMs). In this study, proficiency of GCMs in replicating reanalyzed 1981–2010 temperature data sourced from ERA5 Land was assessed. Initially, least data-modifying interpolation method for achieving resolution match 0.1° ascertained. Subsequently, pixel-by-pixel evaluation conducted, employing five goodness-of-fit metrics. From these metrics, we compiled Comprehensive Rating Index (CRI). A Multi-Model Ensemble using Random Forest constructed projected across three emission scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5) timeframes (2026–2050, 2051–2075, 2076–2100). Empirical Bayesian Kriging, selected its minimal alteration, supersedes commonly employed Bilinear Interpolation. results underscore MPI-ESM1-2-HR, GFDL-ESM4, CNRM-CM6-1, MRI-ESM2-0, CNRM-ESM2-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR top-performing models. Noteworthy geospatial disparities model performance were observed. projection outcomes, divergent IPCC forecasts, revealed warming trend 1 over 2 °C less than anticipated spring winter medium–long term, juxtaposed with heightened mountainous/elevated regions. These findings could substantially refine projections Euro-Med, facilitating implementation policy strategies mitigate effects regions worldwide.

Язык: Английский

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Evaluation of Optimized Multi-Model Ensembles for Extreme Precipitation Projection Considering Various Objective Functions

Water Resources Management, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 38(15), С. 5865 - 5883

Опубликована: Авг. 10, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Projected Changes in Southeast Asian Sea Surface Characteristics Using CMIP6 GCMs

Earth Systems and Environment, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Окт. 3, 2024

Язык: Английский

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