Investigating the Limitations of Multi‐Model Ensembling of Climate Model Outputs in Capturing Climate Extremes DOI
Velpuri Manikanta,

V. Manohar Reddy,

Jew Das

и другие.

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 44(16), С. 5711 - 5726

Опубликована: Окт. 24, 2024

ABSTRACT In the context of climate change, widespread practice directly employing Multi‐Model Ensembles (MMEs) for projecting future extremes, without prior evaluation MME performance in historical periods, remains underexplored. This research addresses this gap through a comprehensive analysis ensemble means derived from CMIP6‐based models, including both simple and weighted averages precipitation (SEMP WEMP) temperature (SEMT WEMT) time series, as well (SEME) (WEME) extremes based on model‐by‐model analysis. The study evaluates efficacy MMEs capturing mean annual values ETCCDI indices over India period 1951–2014, utilising IMD gridded data set reference. results reveal that SEME WEME consistently align closely with across various indices. At same time, SEMP WEMP display underestimation biases ranging 20% to 80% all indices, except CWD, where there is an overestimation bias. Moreover, underestimate CDD overestimate indicating systematic bias these means, while demonstrate satisfactory performance. SEMT WEMT exhibit notable summary, adopting leads more robust assessment respectively. These findings highlight limitations traditional methodologies reproducing observed extreme events climatic zones India, offering essential insights refining models improving reliability projections specific Indian subcontinent.

Язык: Английский

Distribution Model Reveals Rapid Decline in Habitat Extent for Endangered Hispid Hare: Implications for Wildlife Management and Conservation Planning in Future Climate Change Scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Imon Abedin, Tanoy Mukherjee, Ahran Kim

и другие.

Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 13(3), С. 198 - 198

Опубликована: Март 20, 2024

The hispid hare, Caprolagus hispidus, belonging to the family Leporidae is a small grassland mammal found in southern foothills of Himalayas, India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Despite having an endangered status according IUCN Red List, it lacks studies on its distribution threatened by habitat loss land cover changes. Thus, present study attempted assess suitability using species model approach for first time projected future response climate change, habitat, urbanization factors. results revealed that out total geographical extent 188,316 km2, only 11,374 km2 (6.03%) were identified as suitable this species. also significantly declined across range (>60%) under certain change scenarios. Moreover, scenario protected areas such Shuklaphanta National Park (0.837) Nepal exhibited highest mean whereas, Dibru-Saikhowa (0.631) be most habitat. Notably, two Uttarakhand, specifically Corbett (0.530) Sonanandi Wildlife Sanctuary (0.423), have demonstrated habitats C. hispidus. Given showing rise might regarded potential sites translocation, underscores importance implementing proactive conservation strategies mitigate adverse impacts It essential prioritize restoration, focused protection measures, further species-level ecological exploration address these challenges effectively. Furthermore, fostering transboundary collaboration coordinated actions between nations crucial safeguarding long-term survival throughout range.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

12
Predicting climate-driven habitat dynamics of adjutants for implementing strategic conservation measures in South and Southeast Asian landscape DOI Creative Commons
Imon Abedin, Tanoy Mukherjee, Hilloljyoti Singha

и другие.

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 18, 2025

The storks (Ciconiiformes: Ciconiidae) are a fascinating group of birds known for their tall, wading stance, long legs, extended necks, and strong bills. South Southeast Asian region boasts the most diverse population storks, necessitating immediate conservation efforts to protect habitats save them from escalating threats climate change. Within genus Leptoptilos, three distinct species exist, two which—the Greater Adjutant (Leptoptilos dubius) Lesser javanicus)—have garnered attention as 'Near-Threatened' according IUCN Red List. However, assessment overlooks crucial aspects like ramifications climatic shifts anthropogenic-induced habitat fragmentation. Hence, this study endeavors assess impacts via an ensemble approach distribution modeling. findings unveil alarming trends both adjutants across Asia. L. dubius is projected undergo severe decline over 95% all future scenarios (SSP245 SSP585 in time periods) its current suitable extent 38,686 km2, which represents only 5.91% total extent. On contrary, javanicus experiences spatial relocation towards Asia under SSP245 scenarios, resulting 20% present range 239,490 accounts 22.59% range. Furthermore, fragmentation, propelled by alterations, severe, with losing numerous viable patches entirely experiencing discontinuity habitat. given overlapping ranges adjutant species, scenario yields niche overlap value 0.370. Therefore, advocates reassessment andL. dubius, urging threatened category. strategic measures proposed study, involving local communities, non-governmental organizations, governmental entities, safeguard these remarkable avian species.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1
Fragile futures: Evaluating habitat and climate change response of hog badgers (Mustelidae: Arctonyx) in the conservation landscape of mainland Asia DOI Creative Commons
Imon Abedin, Tanoy Mukherjee, Ahran Kim

и другие.

Ecology and Evolution, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(8)

Опубликована: Авг. 1, 2024

Abstract The small mammalian fauna plays pivotal roles in ecosystem dynamics and as crucial biodiversity indicators. However, recent research has raised concerns about the decline of species due to climate change. Consequently, significant attention is directed toward studying various big flagship for conservation. mammals such hog badgers (Mustelidae: Arctonyx ) remain understudied regarding impacts change Asia. present study offers a comprehensive analysis effects on two mainland badger species, utilizing ensemble distribution modeling. Findings reveal concerning outcomes, only 52% IUCN extent deemed suitable Great Hog Badger ( collaris mere 17% ideal Northern albogularis ). Notably, projections suggest potential reduction over 26% areas both under future scenarios, with most severe anticipated high‐emission scenario SSP585. These declines translate into evident habitat fragmentation, particularly impacting A. , whose patches shrink substantially, contrasting relatively stable . despite their differences, niche overlap reveals an intriguing increase between indicating ecological shifts. underscores importance integrating fragmentation considerations conservation strategies, urging reassessment status insights gained from this are improving protection measures by ensuring adequate legal safeguards maintaining corridors viable patches, which essential across Furthermore, emphasizing urgency proactive efforts, countries habitats can help safeguard these ecosystems detrimental

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

6
Habitat Loss in the IUCN Extent: Climate Change-Induced Threat on the Red Goral (Naemorhedus baileyi) in the Temperate Mountains of South Asia DOI Creative Commons
Imon Abedin, Tanoy Mukherjee, Joynal Abedin

и другие.

Biology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 13(9), С. 667 - 667

Опубликована: Авг. 27, 2024

Climate change has severely impacted many species, causing rapid declines or extinctions within their essential ecological niches. This deterioration is expected to worsen, particularly in remote high-altitude regions like the Himalayas, which are home diverse flora and fauna, including mountainous ungulates. Unfortunately, of these species lack adaptive strategies cope with novel climatic conditions. The Red Goral (Naemorhedus baileyi) a cliff-dwelling classified as “Vulnerable” by IUCN due its small population restricted range extent. most all goral residing temperate mountains northeastern India, northern Myanmar, China. Given population, this highly threatened climate habitat disruptions, making mapping modeling crucial for effective conservation. study employs an ensemble approach (BRT, GLM, MARS, MaxEnt) distribution assess distribution, suitability, connectivity addressing critical gaps understanding. findings reveal deeply concerning trends, model identified only 21,363 km2 (13.01%) total extent suitable under current limited alarming, it leaves very little refuge thrive. Furthermore, situation compounded fact that around 22.29% falls protected areas (PAs), further constraining species’ ability survive landscape. future projections paint even degraded scenarios, predicted decline over 34% excessive fragmentation In addition, present identifies precipitation seasonality elevation primary contributing predictors species. nine designated transboundary PAs among them highlight role supporting survival time. Moreover, Dibang Wildlife Sanctuary (DWLS) Hkakaborazi National Park revealed largest scenario. highest mean was found between DWLS Mehao (0.0583), while lowest observed Kamlang Namdapha (0.0172). also suggests strategic management planning vital foundation research conservation initiatives, aiming ensure long-term natural habitat.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

5
Assessing consistency in drought risks in India with multiple multivariate meteorological drought indices (MMDI) under climate change DOI
Femin C Varghese, Subhasis Mitra

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 964, С. 178617 - 178617

Опубликована: Янв. 25, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Urban climate risk assessment under climate and land use changes impact: A multi-dimensional approach DOI
Hao Wu, Yifeng Qin, Dobri Dunchev

и другие.

Urban Climate, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 61, С. 102379 - 102379

Опубликована: Март 17, 2025

Процитировано

0
Shifting shadows: Assessing the habitat and climate change response of binturong (Arctictis binturong) in the conservation landscape of the Asian continent DOI Creative Commons
Imon Abedin, Tanoy Mukherjee, Ahran Kim

и другие.

Ecological Informatics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 85, С. 102941 - 102941

Опубликована: Дек. 8, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

2
CONTENT ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL NEWS ABOUT THE HEAT WAVES IN INDIA DOI Open Access
Felipe Moura Oliveira, Thiago Costa Holanda,

Gleiciane Moura de Lima Holanda

и другие.

International Journal of Professional Business Review, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 9(6), С. e04748 - e04748

Опубликована: Июнь 25, 2024

Objective: The objective of this study is to present how heat waves in India are discussed by the media, observe if they being related climate change. Theoretical Framework: theoretical framework for based on intersection media studies, science, and disaster management. Method: This employs content analysis examine particularly relation It was studied 100 news available on-line Google News. Results Discussion: results indicated that while change frequently mentioned context waves, depth these mentions vary significantly. Media reports tend focus immediate impacts such as health issues infrastructure disruptions. For instance, there were numerous heat-related deaths, hospitalizations, interruptions water electricity supplies. However, less emphasis long-term solutions comprehensive adaptation strategies. Research Implications: highlights importance coverage shaping public understanding policy responses extreme weather events. Originality/Value: contributes existing literature providing a detailed framed

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1
Predicting current and future habitats of Adjutants under climate change for implementing strategic conservation measures in South and Southeast Asian landscapes DOI Creative Commons
Imon Abedin, Tanoy Mukherjee, Hilloljyoti Singha

и другие.

Research Square (Research Square), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Июнь 3, 2024

Abstract The storks (Ciconiiformes: Ciconiidae) represent a captivating avian group distinguished by their heavy-wading nature, long legs, elongated necks, and robust bills. South Southeast Asian region boasts the most diverse population of storks, necessitating immediate conservation efforts to preserve habitats shield them from escalating threats global warming. Within genus Leptoptilos, three distinct species exist, two which—the Greater Adjutant (Leptoptilos dubius) Lesser javanicus)—have garnered attention as threatened according IUCN Red List. Nevertheless, recent strides in localized have prompted tagging off these imperiled ‘Near-Threatened’ category, citing upswings. However, assessment overlooks crucial aspects like ramifications climatic shifts anthropogenic-induced habitat fragmentation. Hence, this study endeavors assess impacts via an ensemble approach distribution modeling. findings unveil alarming trends for both adjutants across Asia. (GA) is projected undergo severe decline over 95% all future scenarios (SSP245 SSP585 time periods) its current suitable extent 38,686 km2, which represents only 5.91% total extent. On contrary, (LA) experiences spatial relocation towards Asia under SSP245 scenarios, resulting 20% present range 239,490 accounts 22.59% range. Furthermore, fragmentation, propelled alterations, severe, with GA losing numerous viable patches entirely LA experiencing fragmentation habitat. given overlapping ranges adjutant species, scenario yields niche overlap value 0.370. Therefore, advocates reassessment LA, urging category. strategic measures are proposed study, involving local communities, non-governmental organizations, governmental entities, safeguard remarkable species.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Investigating the Limitations of Multi‐Model Ensembling of Climate Model Outputs in Capturing Climate Extremes DOI
Velpuri Manikanta,

V. Manohar Reddy,

Jew Das

и другие.

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 44(16), С. 5711 - 5726

Опубликована: Окт. 24, 2024

ABSTRACT In the context of climate change, widespread practice directly employing Multi‐Model Ensembles (MMEs) for projecting future extremes, without prior evaluation MME performance in historical periods, remains underexplored. This research addresses this gap through a comprehensive analysis ensemble means derived from CMIP6‐based models, including both simple and weighted averages precipitation (SEMP WEMP) temperature (SEMT WEMT) time series, as well (SEME) (WEME) extremes based on model‐by‐model analysis. The study evaluates efficacy MMEs capturing mean annual values ETCCDI indices over India period 1951–2014, utilising IMD gridded data set reference. results reveal that SEME WEME consistently align closely with across various indices. At same time, SEMP WEMP display underestimation biases ranging 20% to 80% all indices, except CWD, where there is an overestimation bias. Moreover, underestimate CDD overestimate indicating systematic bias these means, while demonstrate satisfactory performance. SEMT WEMT exhibit notable summary, adopting leads more robust assessment respectively. These findings highlight limitations traditional methodologies reproducing observed extreme events climatic zones India, offering essential insights refining models improving reliability projections specific Indian subcontinent.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0