What can we learn from 100,000 freshwater forecasts? A synthesis from the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge

Ecological Applications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 35(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Abstract Near‐term, iterative ecological forecasts can be used to help understand and proactively manage ecosystems. To date, more have been developed for aquatic ecosystems than other worldwide, likely motivated by the pressing need conserve these essential threatened increasing availability of high‐frequency data. Forecasters implemented many different modeling approaches forecast freshwater variables, which demonstrated promise at individual sites. However, a comprehensive analysis performance varying models across multiple sites is needed broader controls on performance. Forecasting challenges (i.e., community‐scale efforts generate while also developing shared software, training materials, best practices) present useful platform bridging this gap evaluate how range methods perform axes space, time, systems. Here, we analyzed from aquatics theme National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Challenge hosted Initiative. Over 100,000 probabilistic water temperature dissolved oxygen concentration 1–30 days ahead seven NEON‐monitored lakes were submitted in 2023. We assessed varied among with structures, covariates, sources uncertainty relative baseline null models. A similar proportion skillful both variables (34%–40%), although outperformed forecasting (10 out 29) (6 15). These top performing came classes structures. For temperature, found that skill degraded increases horizons, process‐based models, included air as covariate generally exhibited highest performance, most often accounted lower The where observations divergent historical conditions (resulting poor model performance). Overall, NEON provides an exciting opportunity intercomparison learn about strengths diverse suite advance our understanding ecosystem predictability.

Язык: Английский

Autonomous instrumentation and big data: New windows, knowledge, and breakthroughs in the aquatic sciences

Limnology and Oceanography, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Апрель 23, 2025

Язык: Английский