Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6 DOI Creative Commons
Evgenia Galytska, Katja Weigel, Dörthe Handorf

и другие.

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 128(17)

Опубликована: Сен. 2, 2023

Abstract To analyze links among key processes that contribute to Arctic‐midlatitude teleconnections we apply causal discovery based on graphical models known as graphs. First, calculate the dependencies from observations during 1980–2021. Observations show several robust connections early late winter, such atmospheric blocking within central Asia via Ural and Siberian High, North Atlantic Oscillation phase polar vortex (PV). The PV is affected by poleward eddy heat flux at 100 hPa, which also directly connected with Aleutian Low. We then evaluate climate participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) comparing their graphs those derived observations. Compared observations, CMIP6 historical future simulations do not robustly capture arising Arctic sea ice variability. This highlights role of internal variability modulating teleconnections. However, find distinct patterns are simulated most analyzed models. For example, both model observed Asia. But contrary a link between temperature cover over Barents Kara seas. analysis changes reveals connection Low hPa expected become more toward end 21st century than past.

Язык: Английский

Changing State of the Climate System DOI Creative Commons

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown, С. 287 - 422

Опубликована: Июнь 29, 2023

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Язык: Английский

Процитировано

473
What Configuration of the Atmospheric Circulation Drives Extreme Net and Total Moisture Transport Into the Arctic DOI
Lukas Papritz, Etienne Dunn‐Sigouin

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 47(17)

Опубликована: Авг. 25, 2020

Abstract Previous work highlighted different configurations of the atmospheric circulation causing moisture transport into Arctic and contributing to surface warming. Here, we clarify leading extreme wintertime events zonal‐mean net total (sum absolute values poleward equatorward) transports by comparing feature‐based weather system diagnostics with zonal‐wavenumber decomposition in reanalysis data. Results show that are attributable individual systems, where cyclones favor blocks transport. Zonal‐wavenumber reveals is dominated planetary scales (zonal‐wavenumbers k ≤ 3 ). Comparison between two suggests account for scale contributions interacting rather than driving themselves. Finally, result warming via underlying processes related blocks, respectively.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

61
2020/21 record-breaking cold waves in east of China enhanced by the ‘Warm Arctic-Cold Siberia’ pattern DOI Creative Commons
Yijia Zhang, Zhicong Yin,

Huijun Wang

и другие.

Environmental Research Letters, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 16(9), С. 094040 - 094040

Опубликована: Авг. 19, 2021

Abstract Extreme cold waves frequently occur in east of China that dramatically endanger ecological agriculture, power infrastructure and human life. In this study, we found the ‘Warm Arctic-Cold Siberia’ pattern (WACS) significantly enhanced according to daily composites from 1979 2018. During winter 2020/21, a record-breaking wave broke out following noticeable WACS phenomenon induced record-low surface air temperature at 60 meteorological stations since they were established (nearly years). On 3 January 2021, difference anomaly between Barents–Kara Sea Siberia reached 20 °C, peak 2020/21. With shrinking meridional gradient, atmospheric baroclinicity weakened correspondingly. The accompanying anomalies, i.e. persistent Ural Blocking High Baikal deep trough effectively transported stronger than sole impact Arctic warming. After 4 d, experienced severe decrease more 8 covering an area 2500 000 km 2 . same winter, warm event occurred February ‘Cold Arctic-Warm Eurasia’ also appeared as precursory signal. Furthermore, on interannual scale, connection winter-mean anomalies existed even performed strongly both observations simulation data CMIP6.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

47
Decadal Variability of Winter Warm Arctic‐Cold Eurasia Dipole Patterns Modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation DOI Creative Commons
Binhe Luo, Dehai Luo, Aiguo Dai

и другие.

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 10(1)

Опубликована: Дек. 25, 2021

Abstract In recent decades, the winter surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly in Northern Hemisphere has exhibited a warm Arctic‐cold Eurasia (WACE) dipole pattern and this undergone significant decadal variation. paper, physical cause of variability WACE is explored, it shown to be mediated by phases Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Atlantic Multidecadal (AMO). Although negative PDO (PDO − ) or positive AMO (AMO + favors pattern, meridional structure significantly influenced whether dominates. During phase, winter‐mean shows an asymmetric with weak (strong) over Barents‐Kara Seas BKS strong (weak) cold central Siberia, which corresponds Ural blocking (UB) concurring (positive) phase North field. The more strongly related than . It further found that sub‐seasonal Siberia usually formed during UB episode due favored (suppressed) downward infrared radiation turbulent heat flux ), leads pattern.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

43
Reconciling conflicting evidence for the cause of the observed early 21st century Eurasian cooling DOI Creative Commons
Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King

и другие.

Weather and Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 4(1), С. 95 - 114

Опубликована: Янв. 18, 2023

Abstract. It is now well established that the Arctic warming at a faster rate than global average. This warming, which has been accompanied by dramatic decline in sea ice, linked to cooling over Eurasian subcontinent recent decades, most dramatically during period 1998–2012. counter-intuitive impact under given land regions should warm more ocean (and average). Some studies have proposed causal teleconnection from sea-ice retreat wintertime cooling; other argue mainly driven internal variability. Overall, there an impression of strong disagreement between those holding “ice-driven” versus “internal variability” viewpoints. Here, we offer alternative framing showing ice and variability views can be compatible. Key this viewing through lens dynamics (linked primarily with some potential contribution ice; cools Eurasia) thermodynamics retreat; warms Eurasia). approach, combined recognition uncertainty hypothesized mechanisms themselves, allows both viewpoints others) co-exist contribute our understanding cooling. A simple autoregressive model shows magnitude consistent variability, periods exhibiting stronger others, either chance or forced changes. Rather posit “yes-or-no” relationship cooling, constructive way forward consider whether trend was likely observed loss, as sources low-frequency Taken are factors affect likelihood regional presence ongoing warming.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

22
Underestimated Ural blocking events lead to weakened spring Arctic warming in CMIP6 simulations DOI Creative Commons

Wenjun Wu,

Haijin Dai

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 63(3)

Опубликована: Фев. 26, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1
Teleconnection from Arctic warming suppresses long-term warming in central Eurasia DOI Creative Commons
Hainan Gong, Lin Wang, James A. Screen

и другие.

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 11(12)

Опубликована: Март 19, 2025

Whether the rapid warming of Arctic, particularly Barents-Kara Sea (BKS), substantially affects Eurasian winter climate has been debated for over a decade. Here, we use an extended dynamical adjustment method to separate effects internal dynamics and thermodynamically forced BKS on atmospheric circulation, relying solely observations. Evidence shows that observed link between cooling is influenced by both variability warming. Internal variability, Arctic Oscillation, predominantly contributed from 1991 2012. While weaker impact interannual interdecadal timescales, it notably multidecadal scales, contributing “warming hole” in central Eurasia during 1980–2022. Our findings suggest weak but non-negligible response timescales. These advance understanding complex causal relationships mid-latitude climates.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1
The modulation of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on winter Eurasian cold anomaly via the Ural blocking change DOI
Binhe Luo, Dehai Luo, Aiguo Dai

и другие.

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 59(1-2), С. 127 - 150

Опубликована: Янв. 5, 2022

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

28
Subseasonal variability and the “Arctic warming-Eurasia cooling” trend DOI Creative Commons
Zhicong Yin, Yijia Zhang, Botao Zhou

и другие.

Science Bulletin, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 68(5), С. 528 - 535

Опубликована: Фев. 9, 2023

The "Arctic warming-Eurasia cooling" trend has significantly affected the changes of weather patterns and climate extremes at lower latitudes attached huge attentions. However, this winter weakened from 2012 to 2021. In same time period, subseasonal reversals between warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) cold Arctic-warm (CAWE) became more frequent intensity WACE/CAWE pattern was still comparable with that 1996 2011. This study highlighted co-occurrence variability in based on long-term reanalysis datasets Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations. preceding sea surface temperature anomalies tropical Atlantic Indian oceans had significant primary impacts early late winter, respectively, which were confirmed by numerical experiments Community Atmosphere Atmospheric Project. Their coordination worked effectively modulate phase reversal WACE CAWE just like what happened winters 2020 Findings present imply need be considered prediction mid- low latitudes.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

17
Nonlinear Response of Atmospheric Blocking to Early Winter Barents–Kara Seas Warming: An Idealized Model Study DOI Open Access
Xiaodan Chen, Dehai Luo, Yutian Wu

и другие.

Journal of Climate, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 34(6), С. 2367 - 2383

Опубликована: Дек. 23, 2020

Abstract Wintertime Ural blocking (UB) has been shown to play an important role in cold extremes over Eurasia, and thus it is useful investigate the impact of warming Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) on behavior blocking. Here response UB stepwise tropospheric BKS examined using a dry dynamic core model. Nonlinear responses are found frequency local persistence UB. The increase with strength less strong range decrease further warming, which linked propagation influenced by upstream background atmospheric circulation. For weak becomes more persistent due its westward movement associated intensified zonal wind meridional potential vorticity gradient (PV y ) North Atlantic mid-high latitudes, corresponds negative height high latitudes. When strong, positive appears early winter stratosphere, subsequent downward leads NAO or increased Greenland events, reduces PV latitudes from Europe, enhancing reducing persistence. transition phase retrogression not when numerically suppressing influence weakened stratospheric polar vortex, suggesting crucial pathway nonlinear warming.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

33