Changing State of the Climate System

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown, С. 287 - 422

Опубликована: Июнь 29, 2023

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Язык: Английский

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What Configuration of the Atmospheric Circulation Drives Extreme Net and Total Moisture Transport Into the Arctic

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 47(17)

Опубликована: Авг. 25, 2020

Abstract Previous work highlighted different configurations of the atmospheric circulation causing moisture transport into Arctic and contributing to surface warming. Here, we clarify leading extreme wintertime events zonal‐mean net total (sum absolute values poleward equatorward) transports by comparing feature‐based weather system diagnostics with zonal‐wavenumber decomposition in reanalysis data. Results show that are attributable individual systems, where cyclones favor blocks transport. Zonal‐wavenumber reveals is dominated planetary scales (zonal‐wavenumbers k ≤ 3 ). Comparison between two suggests account for scale contributions interacting rather than driving themselves. Finally, result warming via underlying processes related blocks, respectively.

Язык: Английский

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2020/21 record-breaking cold waves in east of China enhanced by the ‘Warm Arctic-Cold Siberia’ pattern

Environmental Research Letters, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 16(9), С. 094040 - 094040

Опубликована: Авг. 19, 2021

Abstract Extreme cold waves frequently occur in east of China that dramatically endanger ecological agriculture, power infrastructure and human life. In this study, we found the ‘Warm Arctic-Cold Siberia’ pattern (WACS) significantly enhanced according to daily composites from 1979 2018. During winter 2020/21, a record-breaking wave broke out following noticeable WACS phenomenon induced record-low surface air temperature at 60 meteorological stations since they were established (nearly years). On 3 January 2021, difference anomaly between Barents–Kara Sea Siberia reached 20 °C, peak 2020/21. With shrinking meridional gradient, atmospheric baroclinicity weakened correspondingly. The accompanying anomalies, i.e. persistent Ural Blocking High Baikal deep trough effectively transported stronger than sole impact Arctic warming. After 4 d, experienced severe decrease more 8 covering an area 2500 000 km 2 . same winter, warm event occurred February ‘Cold Arctic-Warm Eurasia’ also appeared as precursory signal. Furthermore, on interannual scale, connection winter-mean anomalies existed even performed strongly both observations simulation data CMIP6.

Язык: Английский

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Decadal Variability of Winter Warm Arctic‐Cold Eurasia Dipole Patterns Modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 10(1)

Опубликована: Дек. 25, 2021

Abstract In recent decades, the winter surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly in Northern Hemisphere has exhibited a warm Arctic‐cold Eurasia (WACE) dipole pattern and this undergone significant decadal variation. paper, physical cause of variability WACE is explored, it shown to be mediated by phases Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Atlantic Multidecadal (AMO). Although negative PDO (PDO − ) or positive AMO (AMO + favors pattern, meridional structure significantly influenced whether dominates. During phase, winter‐mean shows an asymmetric with weak (strong) over Barents‐Kara Seas BKS strong (weak) cold central Siberia, which corresponds Ural blocking (UB) concurring (positive) phase North field. The more strongly related than . It further found that sub‐seasonal Siberia usually formed during UB episode due favored (suppressed) downward infrared radiation turbulent heat flux ), leads pattern.

Язык: Английский

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Reconciling conflicting evidence for the cause of the observed early 21st century Eurasian cooling

Weather and Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 4(1), С. 95 - 114

Опубликована: Янв. 18, 2023

Abstract. It is now well established that the Arctic warming at a faster rate than global average. This warming, which has been accompanied by dramatic decline in sea ice, linked to cooling over Eurasian subcontinent recent decades, most dramatically during period 1998–2012. counter-intuitive impact under given land regions should warm more ocean (and average). Some studies have proposed causal teleconnection from sea-ice retreat wintertime cooling; other argue mainly driven internal variability. Overall, there an impression of strong disagreement between those holding “ice-driven” versus “internal variability” viewpoints. Here, we offer alternative framing showing ice and variability views can be compatible. Key this viewing through lens dynamics (linked primarily with some potential contribution ice; cools Eurasia) thermodynamics retreat; warms Eurasia). approach, combined recognition uncertainty hypothesized mechanisms themselves, allows both viewpoints others) co-exist contribute our understanding cooling. A simple autoregressive model shows magnitude consistent variability, periods exhibiting stronger others, either chance or forced changes. Rather posit “yes-or-no” relationship cooling, constructive way forward consider whether trend was likely observed loss, as sources low-frequency Taken are factors affect likelihood regional presence ongoing warming.

Язык: Английский

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Underestimated Ural blocking events lead to weakened spring Arctic warming in CMIP6 simulations

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 63(3)

Опубликована: Фев. 26, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Teleconnection from Arctic warming suppresses long-term warming in central Eurasia

Science Advances, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 11(12)

Опубликована: Март 19, 2025

Whether the rapid warming of Arctic, particularly Barents-Kara Sea (BKS), substantially affects Eurasian winter climate has been debated for over a decade. Here, we use an extended dynamical adjustment method to separate effects internal dynamics and thermodynamically forced BKS on atmospheric circulation, relying solely observations. Evidence shows that observed link between cooling is influenced by both variability warming. Internal variability, Arctic Oscillation, predominantly contributed from 1991 2012. While weaker impact interannual interdecadal timescales, it notably multidecadal scales, contributing “warming hole” in central Eurasia during 1980–2022. Our findings suggest weak but non-negligible response timescales. These advance understanding complex causal relationships mid-latitude climates.

Язык: Английский

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The modulation of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on winter Eurasian cold anomaly via the Ural blocking change

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 59(1-2), С. 127 - 150

Опубликована: Янв. 5, 2022

Язык: Английский

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Subseasonal variability and the “Arctic warming-Eurasia cooling” trend

Science Bulletin, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 68(5), С. 528 - 535

Опубликована: Фев. 9, 2023

The "Arctic warming-Eurasia cooling" trend has significantly affected the changes of weather patterns and climate extremes at lower latitudes attached huge attentions. However, this winter weakened from 2012 to 2021. In same time period, subseasonal reversals between warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) cold Arctic-warm (CAWE) became more frequent intensity WACE/CAWE pattern was still comparable with that 1996 2011. This study highlighted co-occurrence variability in based on long-term reanalysis datasets Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations. preceding sea surface temperature anomalies tropical Atlantic Indian oceans had significant primary impacts early late winter, respectively, which were confirmed by numerical experiments Community Atmosphere Atmospheric Project. Their coordination worked effectively modulate phase reversal WACE CAWE just like what happened winters 2020 Findings present imply need be considered prediction mid- low latitudes.

Язык: Английский

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Subseasonal relationship between Arctic and Eurasian surface air temperature

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 11(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 18, 2021

Abstract The subseasonal relationship between Arctic and Eurasian surface air temperature (SAT) is re-examined using reanalysis data. Consistent with previous studies, a significant negative correlation observed in cold season from November to February, but local minimum late December. This dominated not only by the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern, which becomes more frequent during last two decades, also Arctic-warm (CAWE) pattern. budget analyses reveal that both WACE CAWE patterns are primarily driven advection associated sea level pressure anomaly over Ural region, partly cancelled diabatic heating. It further found that, although anticyclonic of pattern mostly represents blocking, about 20% cases non-blocking high systems. result indicates blocking necessary condition for highlighting importance transient weather systems Arctic-Eurasian SAT co-variability.

Язык: Английский

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