Drought propagation under global warming: Characteristics, approaches, processes, and controlling factors

The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 838, С. 156021 - 156021

Опубликована: Май 16, 2022

Язык: Английский

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Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 25(7), С. 3897 - 3935

Опубликована: Июль 7, 2021

Abstract. Hydroclimatic extremes such as intense rainfall, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wind or storms have devastating effects each year. One of the key challenges for society is understanding how these are evolving likely to unfold beyond their historical distributions under influence multiple drivers changes in climate, land cover, other human factors. Methods analysing hydroclimatic advanced considerably recent decades. Here we provide a review drivers, metrics, methods detection, attribution, management, projection nonstationary extremes. We discuss issues uncertainty associated with approaches (e.g. arising from insufficient record length, spurious nonstationarities, incomplete representation sources modelling frameworks), examine empirical simulation-based frameworks analysis extremes, identify gaps future research.

Язык: Английский

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Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts

Earth-Science Reviews, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 235, С. 104241 - 104241

Опубликована: Ноя. 8, 2022

Язык: Английский

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A critical review of real-time modelling of flood forecasting in urban drainage systems

Journal of Hydrology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 607, С. 127476 - 127476

Опубликована: Янв. 22, 2022

There has been a strong tendency in recent decades to develop real-time urban flood prediction models for early warning the public due large number of worldwide occurrences and their disastrous consequences. While significant breakthrough made so far, there are still some potential knowledge gaps that need further investigation. This paper presents comprehensive review current state-of-the-art future trends modelling forecasting drainage systems. Findings showed combination various sources rainfall measurement inclusion other data such as soil moisture, wind flow patterns, evaporation, fluvial infiltration should be more investigated models. Additionally, artificial intelligence is also present most new RTFF UDS consequently developments this technique expected appear works.

Язык: Английский

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An Overview of Flood Concepts, Challenges, and Future Directions

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 27(6)

Опубликована: Март 24, 2022

This review provides a broad overview of the current state flood research, challenges, and future directions. Beginning with discussion flood-generating mechanisms, synthesizes literature on forecasting, multivariate nonstationary frequency analysis, urban flooding, remote sensing floods. Challenges research directions are outlined highlight emerging topics where more work is needed to help mitigate risks. It anticipated that systems will likely have significant risk due compounding effects continued climate change land-use intensification. The timely prediction floods, quantification socioeconomic impacts developing mitigation strategies continue be challenging. There need bridge scales between model capabilities end-user needs by integrating multiscale models, stakeholder input, social citizen science input for monitoring, mapping, dissemination. Although much progress has been made in using applications, recent upcoming Earth Observations provide excellent potential unlock additional benefits applications. community can benefit from downscaled, as well ensemble scenarios consider changes. Efforts also data assimilation approaches, especially ingest local, citizen, media data. Also enhanced compound hazards assess reduce vulnerability impacts. dynamic complex interactions climate, societal change, watershed processes, human factors often confronted deep uncertainty highlights transdisciplinary science, policymakers, stakeholders vulnerability.

Язык: Английский

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Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 27(9), С. 1865 - 1889

Опубликована: Май 15, 2023

Abstract. Hybrid hydroclimatic forecasting systems employ data-driven (statistical or machine learning) methods to harness and integrate a broad variety of predictions from dynamical, physics-based models – such as numerical weather prediction, climate, land, hydrology, Earth system into final prediction product. They are recognized promising way enhancing the skill meteorological variables events, including rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers. now receiving growing attention due advances in climate at subseasonal decadal scales, better appreciation strengths AI, expanding access computational resources methods. Such attractive because they may avoid need run computationally expensive offline land model, can minimize effect biases that exist within dynamical outputs, benefit learning, learn large datasets, while combining different sources predictability with varying time horizons. Here we review recent developments hybrid outline key challenges opportunities for further research. These include obtaining physically explainable results, assimilating human influences novel data sources, integrating new ensemble techniques improve predictive skill, creating seamless schemes merge short long lead times, incorporating initial surface ocean/ice conditions, acknowledging spatial variability landscape forcing, increasing operational uptake schemes.

Язык: Английский

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Streamflow droughts aggravated by human activities despite management

Environmental Research Letters, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 17(4), С. 044059 - 044059

Опубликована: Март 15, 2022

Human activities both aggravate and alleviate streamflow drought. Here we show that aggravation is dominant in contrasting cases around the world analysed with a consistent methodology. Our 28 included different combinations of human-water interactions. We found water abstraction aggravated all drought characteristics, increases 20%–305% total time across case studies, deficit up to almost 3000%. Water transfers reduced by 97%. In into catchment or augmenting from groundwater, inputs could not compensate for droughts due only shift effects space time. Reservoir releases downstream use alleviated dry season, but also led deficits wet season changing flow seasonality. This minor changes average duration (−26 +38%) moderate (−86 +369%). Land showed smaller impact on drought, decreases observed (−48 +98%). Sewage return flows pipe leakage possibly counteracted increased imperviousness urban areas; however, untangling land change challenging. synthesis diverse global highlights complexity human influence added value empirical comparative studies. Results indicate intended unintended consequences management infrastructure society ecosystems.

Язык: Английский

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River water quality shaped by land–river connectivity in a changing climate

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(3), С. 225 - 237

Опубликована: Март 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Modeling, challenges, and strategies for understanding impacts of climate extremes (droughts and floods) on water quality in Asia: A review

Environmental Research, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 225, С. 115617 - 115617

Опубликована: Март 4, 2023

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are among the most expected recognized consequences change. Prediction water quality parameters becomes more challenging with these extremes since is strongly related to hydro-meteorological conditions particularly sensitive evidence linking influence factors on provides insights into future climatic extremes. Despite recent breakthroughs in modeling evaluations change's impact quality, informed methodologies remain restricted. This review aims summarize causal mechanisms across considering Asian methods associated extremes, such as floods droughts. In this review, we (1) identify current scientific approaches prediction context flood drought assessment, (2) discuss challenges impediments, (3) propose potential solutions improve understanding mitigate their negative impacts. study emphasizes that one crucial step toward enhancing our aquatic ecosystems by comprehending connections between through collective efforts. indices indicators were demonstrated better understand link for a selected watershed basin.

Язык: Английский

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Streamflow seasonality in a snow-dwindling world

Nature, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 629(8014), С. 1075 - 1081

Опубликована: Май 29, 2024

Язык: Английский

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