The green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap

Nature Energy, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 14, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(10), С. 1047 - 1055

Опубликована: Сен. 25, 2024

Climate change mitigation requires the large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Recent plans indicate an eight-fold increase in CCS capacity by 2030, yet feasibility expansion is debated. Using historical growth other policy-driven technologies, we show that if double between 2023 2025 their failure rates decrease half, could reach 0.37 GtCO

Язык: Английский

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Diversity of biomass usage pathways to achieve emissions targets in the European energy system

Nature Energy, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 23, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Multi-country evidence on societal factors to include in energy transition modelling

Nature Energy, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 10(4), С. 460 - 469

Опубликована: Фев. 21, 2025

Abstract Integrated assessment and energy system models are challenged to account for societal transformation dynamics, but empirical evidence is lacking on which factors incorporate, how what extent this would improve the relevance of modelled pathways. Here we include six related infrastructure actors decision-making, social institutional context into an open-source simulation model national power transition. We apply in 31 European countries and, using hindcasting (1990–2019), quantify improved find that, if well-chosen most cases, incorporating can performance by up 27% installed capacity individual technologies. Public acceptance, investment risks lock - contribute improvement. Our study paves way a systematic objective selection be included transition modelling.

Язык: Английский

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Simulating institutional heterogeneity in sustainability science

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 121(8)

Опубликована: Фев. 15, 2024

Sustainability outcomes are influenced by the laws and configurations of natural engineered systems as well activities in socio-economic systems. An important subset human activity is creation implementation institutions, formal informal rules shaping a wide range behavior. Understanding these codifying them computational models can provide missing insights into why function way they do (static) pace structure transitions required to improve sustainability (dynamic). Here, we conduct comparative synthesis three modeling approaches— integrated assessment modeling, engineering–economic optimization, agent-based modeling—with underexplored potential represent institutions. We first perform experiments on climate mitigation that specific aspects heterogeneous including policies institutional coordination, attitudes norms. find measurable but uneven aggregate impacts, while more politically meaningful distributional impacts large across various actors. Our results show omitting institutions influence costs miss opportunities leverage forces speed up emissions reduction. These allow us explore capacity each approach insitutions lay out vision for next frontier endogenizing change science models. To bridge gap between theories, empirical evidence social this research agenda calls joint efforts modelers who wish incorporate detail, scientists studying socio-political economic foundations transitions.

Язык: Английский

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Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5 °C climate future using historical analogs

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 121(20)

Опубликована: Май 6, 2024

Limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 °C will rely, part, on technologies remove CO 2 from atmosphere. However, many carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are early stages of development, and there is limited data inform predictions their future adoption. Here, we present an approach model adoption early-stage such as CDR apply it direct air capture storage (DACCS). Our combines empirical historical technology analogs indicators a range feasible growth pathways. We use these pathways inputs integrated assessment (the Global Change Analysis Model, GCAM) evaluate effects under emissions policy limit end-of-century change °C. Adoption varies widely across analogs, which share different strategic similarities with DACCS. If DACCS mirrors high-growth (e.g., solar photovoltaics), can reach up 4.9 GtCO by midcentury, compared low 0.2 for low-growth natural gas pipelines). For slower growing unabated fossil fuel generation 2050 reduced 44% implications energy investments stranded assets. Residual at end century also substantially lower (by 43% 34% transportation industry) scenarios. The large variation rates observed point takeaways enabling

Язык: Английский

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Questioning nuclear scale-up propositions: Availability and economic prospects of light water, small modular and advanced reactor technologies

Energy Research & Social Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 110, С. 103448 - 103448

Опубликована: Фев. 2, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Distinguish between feasibility and desirability when assessing climate response options

npj Climate Action, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 4(1)

Опубликована: Апрель 2, 2025

Abstract The current literature on assessing climate change response options does not sufficiently distinguish between in terms of their feasibility and desirability. One example this is the IPCC assessment framework. We argue that assessments should indeed cover questions desirability, but they do so explicitly. Transparency about underlying normative standards key to a productive desirability assessment.

Язык: Английский

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Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(9), С. 954 - 960

Опубликована: Авг. 12, 2024

Abstract Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO 2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios alternative with institutional, geophysical technological constraints enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show the most ambitious mitigation trajectories updated climate information still manage limit peak below 1.6 (‘low overshoot’) around 50% likelihood. However, constraints, especially institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably 5–45%. Accelerated demand transformation can reduce costs staying but only limited impact on further increasing °C. helps establish new benchmark goes beyond dominant scenario design.

Язык: Английский

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Diverse decarbonization pathways under near cost-optimal futures

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Сен. 17, 2024

Язык: Английский

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