Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 155(1), С. 151 - 162
Опубликована: Сен. 20, 2023
Язык: Английский
Weather and Climate Extremes, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 47, С. 100743 - 100743
Опубликована: Янв. 30, 2025
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
1
Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 50(16)
Опубликована: Авг. 25, 2023
Abstract In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest experienced a heatwave that broke all previous records. Estimated return levels based on observations up to year before event suggested reaching such high temperatures is not possible in today's climate. We here assess suitability of prevalent statistical approach by analyzing extreme temperature events climate model large ensemble and synthetic value data. demonstrate method subject biases, as are generally underestimated and, correspondingly, period low‐likelihood overestimated, if underlying distribution derived from short historical record. These biases have even increased recent decades due emergence pronounced change signal. Furthermore, analysis triggered an event, implicit selection bias affects likelihood assessment depending whether included modeling.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
15
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7(1)
Опубликована: Июль 17, 2024
Abstract Heat extremes frequently hit different regions synchronously during boreal summer over the Eurasian continent. A remarkable coupling is first revealed between heat extreme occurrence and individual extratropical intraseasonal oscillation (EISO). Further, combined EISOs facilitate largely increase probabilities of synchronous extremes. These dominant together contribute 20–45% to total days five where climatological occur most frequently. multi-model hindcast further shows that subseasonal prediction exhibits higher skills for combined-EISO hotspot when associated are active, supporting notion monitoring crucial extremes’ early warning. Skillful opens a pathway by extending it from weather timescales.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
5
Weather and Climate Extremes, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 42, С. 100603 - 100603
Опубликована: Авг. 17, 2023
Heatwaves are among the deadliest weather-related disasters. They not only seen in summer but also may appear spring and autumn, especially under climate warming. Although mechanisms of summertime heatwaves have been extensively studied, how they differ from autumn seasons possibly season-dependent poorly understood. Here we examine specific processes associated with spring, summer, southern China during 1961–2020. We show that all three intensifying frequency, duration, intensity, exhibit distinctly circulation changes. Summer characterized by a warm-core high-pressure structure, while warm low pattern. mainly triggered westward (eastward) extension western North Pacific subtropical high (South Asian high), accompanied anomalous lower-level anticyclone positive pressure anomalies. In contrast, coincide lower-than-normal southwesterly over East Asia, indicative weakening winter monsoon Siberian high. Their developments linked to eastward movement an upper-tropospheric wave-like pattern mid-latitudes. It is found largely contributed local preceding soil moisture deficit, comparison heatwaves. Our findings contribute better understanding heatwave characteristics different provide insights into their mitigation strategies.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
9
Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 305, С. 107427 - 107427
Опубликована: Апрель 26, 2024
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
3
Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 305, С. 107449 - 107449
Опубликована: Апрель 28, 2024
In the early spring of 2022, South Asia (SA) experienced an unprecedented and prolonged episode compound extreme heat waves (EHWs), which pose significant risks to both human society ecosystems. This exceptional event broke historical records for frequency intensity anomalies since 1981 could be attributed a barotropic atmospheric regime characterized by anomalous anticyclone. study ascribed this record-breaking exceptionally warm Tibetan Plateau (TP) apparent source (TPAHS). Both observations numerical experiments conducted with linear baroclinic model revealed that unusual TPAHS acted as "air pump", driving vigorous lower-level convergence ascending motion around TP. Abnormal led increase in air temperature, subsequently elevating height tropopause. This, turn, induced cooler upper-level warmer thermal structure over TP, resulting negative potential vorticity (PV) near 200 hPa. As continued intensify, anticyclone strengthened extended westward, facilitating advection PV from TP upstream regions. resulted increased geopotential SA. Furthermore, triggered zonal circulation significantly enhanced descending reduced relative vorticity, thereby strengthening Consequently, clear skies prevailed, amplifying solar shortwave radiation reaching ground. surface warmed near-surface temperatures, ultimately EHWs on interannual timescale.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
3
Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12(10)
Опубликована: Окт. 1, 2024
Abstract Heatwaves represent a significant and growing threat to natural ecosystems socio‐economic structures, making heatwave risk mitigation prevention an important area of research. In exploring frequency intensity from 1901 2020, the present study finds sharp increase in both. The also that spatial distribution heatwaves is unequal, volatility characteristics has become more prominent over time, Gini coefficients four key indictors have larger due increasing dryness. Although occur frequently drylands, there greater cumulative heat humid areas, resulting higher those areas. global past three decades (1991–2020) increased nearly five‐fold compared early 20th century (1901–1930). Furthermore, GeoDetector analysis indicates Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) downward surface shortwave radiation (Srad) contributing most drylands areas (0.29 0.41, respectively). contribution relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS), soil moisture (SM), normalized difference vegetation (NDVI) but much smaller drylands. Composite shows years with anomalously high correspond positive anomalies 500hPa geopotential height pressure. inhibition cloud formation sinking air temperature atmosphere may be occurrence. This emphasizes urgent need address worsening climate change impacts.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
3
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 50(1)
Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025
Abstract Sediment mobilized to rivers during extreme flood events can influence channel stability and cause significant morphological changes. A prolonged intense atmospheric river (AR) struck southwestern British Columbia, Canada in November 2021, leading flooding landsliding over approximately 70 000 km 2 of mountainous areas. Entire communities within the region were evacuated, transportation infrastructure connecting them was severely damaged. The locations 1300+ geohazards (e.g., debris flows, flood, slides, shallow landslides bank erosion) mapped from helicopter, ground observations, orthoimagery, site photos social media posts alongside large gravel‐bed streams that experienced lateral instability. Morphological changes two these examined more detail by comparing pre‐event post‐event lidar data using three‐dimensional point‐based normal differencing. We found occurred frequently burned areas along forest harvesting resource roads, providing point sources sediment entered mainstem rivers. geohazard mapping change detection revealed erosion instability often downstream sources. As frequency wildfires meteorological is predicted increase with continued climate change, future risk assessments should consider be resulting impacts.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 63(3)
Опубликована: Март 1, 2025
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0
Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 52(6)
Опубликована: Март 10, 2025
Abstract Heatwaves pose increased risk to ecosystem and society. Advanced event‐based detection methods offer novel insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of heatwaves. However, robust assessments heatwave trends remain challenging due sensitivity results parameter selection, including connected structure, area threshold, overlap ratio. Here, we employed 3‐dimensional algorithm (3DCDA) explore dependency identifications on various combinations. The indicate that metrics are sensitive 3DCDA parameters, with appropriate combination for large‐scale heatwaves being ratio 40%–50%, threshold 10 6 km 2 , 10‐connected structure. Based this configuration, discovered significant increasing in frequency, projection total magnitude, while observed a decrease maximum intensity mean both annually during summer. These findings highlight critical importance selection analysis other extreme events.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
0