The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 57(1-2), С. 275 - 302

Опубликована: Апрель 9, 2021

Abstract Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total 23 run with $$\sim $$ ∼ 3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different models (RCMs) represented in ensemble. The compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations coarse resolution ( 12 km) RCMs parameterized convection. model respect to mean precipitation, intensity frequency, heavy on daily hourly timescales seasons. results show that produce more realistic representation than RCMs. most significant improvements found for frequency both time scales summer season. In general, tend intense reduced wet-hour models. On average, shows reduction bias from \,$$ −40% km −3% summer. Furthermore, uncertainty ranges i.e. variability between wet hour is half use Although differences still exist, it evident these superior coarse-resolution RCM representing present-day climate, thus offer promising way forward investigations change local scales.

Язык: Английский

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Convection‐permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 12(6)

Опубликована: Авг. 16, 2021

Abstract Approximately 10 years ago, convection‐permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) emerged as a promising computationally affordable tool to produce fine resolution (1–4 km) decadal‐long simulations with explicitly resolved deep convection. This explicit representation is expected reduce projection uncertainty related convection parameterizations found in most models. A recent surge CPRCM decadal over larger domains, sometimes covering continents, has led important insights into advantages and limitations. Furthermore, new observational gridded datasets spatial temporal (~1 km; ~1 h) resolutions have leveraged additional knowledge through evaluations of the added value CPRCMs. With an improved coordination frame ongoing international initiatives, production ensembles provide more robust projections better identification their associated uncertainties. review paper presents overview methodology latest research on current future climates. Impact studies that are already taking advantage these highlighted. ends by proposing next steps could be accomplished continue exploiting full potential article categorized under: Climate Models Modeling > Earth System

Язык: Английский

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The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation

Climate Dynamics, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 56(11-12), С. 3581 - 3602

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2021

Язык: Английский

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Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 28, 2024

Abstract Extreme precipitation events lead to dramatic impacts on society and the situation will worsen under climate change. Decision-makers need reliable estimates of future changes as a basis for effective adaptation strategies, but projections at local scale from regional models (RCMs) are highly uncertain. Here we exploit km-scale convection-permitting multi-model (CPM) ensemble, generated within FPS Convection project, provide new understanding in extremes related uncertainties over greater Alpine region. The CPM ensemble shows stronger increase fractional contribution extreme than driving RCM during summer, when convection dominates. We find that substantially reduces model their total by more 50%. conclude realistic representation dynamical processes CPMs provides change, which essential policymakers plan measures.

Язык: Английский

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Potential and limitations of convection‐permitting CNRM‐AROME climate modelling in the French Alps

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 42(14), С. 7162 - 7185

Опубликована: Апрель 3, 2022

Abstract Convection‐permitting climate modelling is a promising avenue for change research and services especially in mountainous regions. Work required to evaluate the results of high‐resolution simulations against relevant observations, put them broader context coarser resolution frameworks. Here we numerical with convection‐permitting regional model CNRM‐AROME ran at 2.5 km horizontal over large pan‐Alpine domain European Alps, using either ERA‐Interim or output as boundary conditions. This study analyses annual seasonal characteristics 2 m temperature, total precipitation, solid fraction precipitation snow depth scale French Alps under past future The are compared local reanalysis S2M, raw adjusted, ADAMONT method, CNRM‐ALADIN driven by CNRM‐CM5 global model. highlights generally similar differences between datasets, well obstacles use some outputs they stand. These consist excessive accumulation on ground above 1,800 a.s.l., lower temperature values same elevations than S2M ADAMONT‐adjusted outputs. Besides these obstacles, present several advantages Among them, significantly smaller cold bias, more realistic accumulated precipitations, better representation spatial variability different variables investigated, which always stand closer reference data As suggested many studies, could even produce precipitations high elevation taken our consequently projections, but lack reliable set observations remains an obstacle their evaluation.

Язык: Английский

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Multi-decadal analysis of past winter temperature, precipitation and snow cover data in the European Alps from reanalyses, climate models and observational datasets

˜The œcryosphere, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 17(8), С. 3617 - 3660

Опубликована: Авг. 28, 2023

Abstract. Assessing past distributions, variability and trends in the mountain snow cover its first-order drivers, temperature precipitation, is key for a wide range of studies applications. In this study, we compare results various modeling systems (global regional reanalyses ERA5, ERA5-Land, ERA5-Crocus, CERRA-Land, UERRA MESCAN-SURFEX MTMSI climate model simulations CNRM-ALADIN CNRM-AROME driven by global reanalysis ERA-Interim) against observational references (in situ, gridded datasets satellite observations) across European Alps from 1950 to 2020. The comparisons are performed terms monthly seasonal variables (snow depth duration) their main atmospherical drivers (near-surface precipitation). We assess multi-annual averages subregional mean values, interannual variations, over timescales, mainly winter period (from November through April). MESCAN-SURFEX, CERRA-Land offer satisfying description evolution. However, spatial comparison observation indicates that all overestimate duration, especially melt-out date. ERA5-Land exhibit an overestimation accumulation during winter, increasing with elevations. analysis dynamics remains complex multiple scales none models evaluated here fully succeed reproduce compared reference datasets. Indeed, while most outputs perform well at representing multi-decadal precipitation variability, they often fail address duration. discuss several artifacts potentially responsible incorrect long-term products (ERA5 MESCAN-SURFEX), which attribute primarily heterogeneities assimilated. Nevertheless, many considered study line current state knowledge. Based on these datasets, last 50 years (1968–2017) scale, have experienced warming 0.3 0.4 ∘C per decade, stronger lower elevations, small reduction homogeneous elevation. decline duration ranges −7 % −15 decade −5 d respectively, both showing larger decrease low intermediate Overall, show no strategy outperforms others within our sample upstream choices (horizontal resolution, heterogeneity observations used data assimilation reanalyses, coupling between surface atmosphere, level complexity, configuration scheme, etc.) great consequences quality potential use. Despite limitations, cases can be characterize features

Язык: Английский

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Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 28(2), С. 375 - 389

Опубликована: Янв. 31, 2024

Abstract. Extreme sub-hourly precipitation, typically convective in nature, is capable of triggering natural disasters such as floods and debris flows. A key component climate change adaptation resilience quantifying the likelihood that extreme precipitation will exceed historical levels future scenarios. Despite this, current approaches to estimating return are deemed insufficient. The reason for this can be attributed two factors: there limited availability data from convection-permitting models (capable simulating adequately) statistical methods we use extrapolate do not capture physics governing global warming. We present a novel physical-based method levels. proposed model, named TEmperature-dependent Non-Asymptotic model eXtreme (TENAX), based on parsimonious non-stationary non-asymptotic theoretical framework incorporates temperature covariate physically consistent manner. first explain theory TENAX model. Using several stations Switzerland case study, demonstrate model's ability reproduce some observed properties precipitation. then illustrate how utilized project changes warmer only projections temperatures during wet days foreseen frequency. conclude by discussing uncertainties associated with its limitations, advantages. With one extremes at different daily scale any location globally where observations near-surface air available.

Язык: Английский

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Large-scale dynamics moderate impact-relevant changes to organised convective storms

Communications Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 4(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 5, 2023

Abstract Larger organised convective storms (mesoscale-convective systems) can lead to major flood events in Europe. Here we assess end-of-century changes their characteristics two convection-permitting climate simulations from the UK Met Office and ETH-Zürich that both use high Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario but different approaches represent atmospheric with global warming models. The projections indicate more frequent, smaller, slower-moving storms, while show fewer, larger, faster-moving storms. However, increases peak precipitation intensity, total volume, temporal clustering, suggesting increasing risks mesoscale-convective systems future. Importantly, largest pose increased are projected increase frequency intensity. These results highlight understanding large-scale dynamical drivers as well thermodynamical response of is essential for accurate storm hazards, needed future adaptation.

Язык: Английский

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Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Spain

Land, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 14(1), С. 85 - 85

Опубликована: Янв. 3, 2025

The objective of this study was to analyze the climate change experienced in Spain between 1971 and 2022 estimate future (2050). main objectives were as follows: (1) temporal evolution temperature from present, quantify warming process case evaluate increase extreme heat events (heatwaves); (2) precipitation regime determine whether there is a statistically representative trend towards drier an precipitation; (3) investigate interaction annual continuous temperature; (4) scenario for mainland Balearic Islands 2050, analyzing trends land aridity predicting possible Mediterranean warm steppe climate, according Köppen classification. aim test hypothesis that resulting global implies tendency progressive drought. Given variability addition ordinary least squares methodology, techniques mainly used Mann–Kendall Kendall–Theil–Sen (KTS) regression. confirmed very high statistical significance relationship (RR) maximum (TX). If recent years (1971–2022) continues, it foreseeable that, by will be reduction 14% 23% with respect reference period (understood average 2000). Spain’s likely classification system (from “C” “B”).

Язык: Английский

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Exploring Climate of the Euro‐Mediterranean Using a Variable‐Resolution Configuration of the Global Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM)

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 130(4)

Опубликована: Фев. 11, 2025

Abstract A Variable‐Resolution, global configuration of the Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM) in which atmosphere and land are only active components is employed to investigate climate Euro‐Mediterranean region. Two variable‐resolution grids with regionally refined resolutions 0.25° 0.125° over study domain, respectively, used. The fidelity these VR‐CESM simulations evaluated considering near‐surface air temperature precipitation fields for 2000–2014 period comparison available observation‐based data sets those a coarse resolution (quasi‐uniform 1°) control simulation. Our analysis shows that, as model, can be an alternative regional models advance our understanding climate. improvements obtained mainly related better representation complex topography region higher resolution. Increasing generally yields considerable simulation; however, some persistent biases remain. Doubling highest leads modest improvements, primarily small‐scale processes including extreme events that substantial relevance present future

Язык: Английский

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