Recent waning snowpack in the Alps is unprecedented in the last six centuries

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 13(2), С. 155 - 160

Опубликована: Янв. 12, 2023

Abstract Snow cover in high-latitude and high-altitude regions has strong effects on the Earth’s climate, environmental processes socio-economic activities. Over last 50 years, Alps experienced a 5.6% reduction per decade snow duration, which already affects region where economy culture revolve, to large extent, around winter. Here we present evidence from 572 ring-width series extracted prostrate shrub ( Juniperus communis L.) growing at high elevation Val Ventina, Italy. These records show that duration of current snowpack is 36 days shorter than long-term mean, decline unprecedented over six centuries. findings highlight urgent need develop adaptation strategies for some most sensitive sectors this region.

Язык: Английский

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Climate change exacerbates snow-water-energy challenges for European ski tourism

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 13(9), С. 935 - 942

Опубликована: Авг. 28, 2023

Язык: Английский

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Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 25(1), С. 77 - 117

Опубликована: Янв. 6, 2025

Abstract. Drought and heat events in Europe are becoming increasingly frequent due to human-induced climate change, impacting both human well-being ecosystem functioning. The intensity effects of these vary across the continent, making it crucial for decision-makers understand spatial variability drought impacts. Data on drought-related damage currently dispersed scientific publications, government reports, media outlets. This study consolidates data European forests from 2018 2022, using Europe-wide datasets including those related crown defoliation, insect damage, burnt forest areas, tree cover loss. data, covering 16 countries, were analysed four regions, northern, central, Alpine, southern, compared with a reference period 2010 2014. Findings reveal that all zones experienced reduced vitality elevated temperatures, varying severity. Central showed highest vulnerability, coniferous deciduous trees. southern zone, while affected by loss, demonstrated greater resilience, likely historical exposure. northern zone is experiencing emerging impacts less severely, possibly site-adapted boreal species, Alpine minimal impact, suggesting protective effect altitude. Key trends include (1) significant loss zones; (2) high levels despite 2021 being an average year, indicating lasting previous years; (3) notable challenges central Sweden bark beetle infestations; (4) no increase wildfire severity ongoing challenges. Based this assessment, we conclude (i) highly vulnerable heat, even resilient ecosystems at risk severe damage; (ii) tailored strategies essential mitigate change forests, incorporating regional differences resilience; (iii) effective management requires harmonised collection enhanced monitoring address future comprehensively.

Язык: Английский

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Multi-decadal analysis of past winter temperature, precipitation and snow cover data in the European Alps from reanalyses, climate models and observational datasets

˜The œcryosphere, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 17(8), С. 3617 - 3660

Опубликована: Авг. 28, 2023

Abstract. Assessing past distributions, variability and trends in the mountain snow cover its first-order drivers, temperature precipitation, is key for a wide range of studies applications. In this study, we compare results various modeling systems (global regional reanalyses ERA5, ERA5-Land, ERA5-Crocus, CERRA-Land, UERRA MESCAN-SURFEX MTMSI climate model simulations CNRM-ALADIN CNRM-AROME driven by global reanalysis ERA-Interim) against observational references (in situ, gridded datasets satellite observations) across European Alps from 1950 to 2020. The comparisons are performed terms monthly seasonal variables (snow depth duration) their main atmospherical drivers (near-surface precipitation). We assess multi-annual averages subregional mean values, interannual variations, over timescales, mainly winter period (from November through April). MESCAN-SURFEX, CERRA-Land offer satisfying description evolution. However, spatial comparison observation indicates that all overestimate duration, especially melt-out date. ERA5-Land exhibit an overestimation accumulation during winter, increasing with elevations. analysis dynamics remains complex multiple scales none models evaluated here fully succeed reproduce compared reference datasets. Indeed, while most outputs perform well at representing multi-decadal precipitation variability, they often fail address duration. discuss several artifacts potentially responsible incorrect long-term products (ERA5 MESCAN-SURFEX), which attribute primarily heterogeneities assimilated. Nevertheless, many considered study line current state knowledge. Based on these datasets, last 50 years (1968–2017) scale, have experienced warming 0.3 0.4 ∘C per decade, stronger lower elevations, small reduction homogeneous elevation. decline duration ranges −7 % −15 decade −5 d respectively, both showing larger decrease low intermediate Overall, show no strategy outperforms others within our sample upstream choices (horizontal resolution, heterogeneity observations used data assimilation reanalyses, coupling between surface atmosphere, level complexity, configuration scheme, etc.) great consequences quality potential use. Despite limitations, cases can be characterize features

Язык: Английский

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Unprecedented snow-drought conditions in the Italian Alps during the early 2020s

Environmental Research Letters, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 18(7), С. 074014 - 074014

Опубликована: Июнь 5, 2023

Abstract Snow represents a fundamental water resource for mountain and lowland areas. Changes in the frequency magnitude of snow droughts can significantly impact societies ecosystems that rely on snowmelt to satisfy their demands. Here we documented quantified drought affected Italian Alps during early 2020s. We used 15 long-term snow-depth series (period 1930–2023, elevation range: 864–2200 m a.s.l.) simulate equivalent (SWE), conjunction with climatic reanalysis data river discharge observations. found March SWE anomaly 2022 reached lowest value last century, due an unprecedented combination drier- warmer-than-normal conditions period December 2021–March 2022. This event contributed causing critical hydrological Po Adige rivers which, summer 2022, experienced worst ever recorded. Despite its magnitude, is part recent pattern increased intensity snow-drought events since 1990s, combined increasing occurrence warmer- drier-than-normal season. Remarkably, three out five most severe occurred years, exceptional even occurring two consecutive winters, 2023. The 2020s warn pressing need implementation mitigation measures adapt fast changing conditions.

Язык: Английский

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A Method to Assess and Explain Changes in Sub‐Daily Precipitation Return Levels From Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 60(5)

Опубликована: Май 1, 2024

Abstract Reliable projections of extreme future precipitation are fundamental for risk management and adaptation strategies. Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) explicitly resolve large convective systems represent sub‐daily extremes more realistically than coarser resolution models, but present short records due to the high computational costs. Here, we evaluate potential a non‐asymptotic approach, Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value (SMEV) provide information on change return levels based CPM simulations. We focus complex‐orography area in North Eastern Italy use three 10‐year time periods COSMO‐crCLIM simulations (2.2 km resolution) under RCP8.5 scenario. When compared block r‐maxima approach currently used similar applications, proposed shows reduced uncertainty rare level estimates (about 5%–10% smaller confidence interval) can improve quantification changes from these their statistical significance 1–24 hr durations. The show an interesting spatial organization associated with orography, significant positive located at elevations. These tend increase increasing period decreasing duration. Because SMEV separate roles event intensity occurrence, it allows physical interpretations changes. suggest that approaches permit within available runs.

Язык: Английский

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Acceleration and interannual variability of creep rates in mountain permafrost landforms (rock glacier velocities) in the European Alps in 1995–2022

Environmental Research Letters, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 19(3), С. 034022 - 034022

Опубликована: Фев. 2, 2024

Abstract Cryospheric long-term timeseries get increasingly important. To document climate-related effects on viscous creep of ice-rich mountain permafrost, we investigated (1995–2022) geodetically-derived Rock Glacier Velocity (RGV), i.e. spatially averaged interannual velocity related to a rock glacier (RG) unit or part it. We considered 50 RGV from 43 RGs covering the entire European Alps. Eight these are destabilized. Results show that distinctly variable ranging 0.04 6.23 m −1 . Acceleration and deceleration at many highly correlated with similar behaviour over 2.5 decades for 15 timeseries. In addition general long-term, warming-induced trend increasing velocities, three main phases distinct acceleration (2000–2004, 2008–2015, 2018–2020), interrupted by steady state conditions, were identified. The evolution is attributed climate forcing underlines significance as product Essential Climate Variable (ECV) permafrost. data valuable indicators, but such should always be assessed critically considering changing local factors (geomorphic, thermal, hydrologic) monitoring approaches. extract signal, larger ensembles analysed. Criteria selecting new RGV-sites proposed.

Язык: Английский

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Detecting the impact of climate change on alpine mass movements in observational records from the European Alps

Earth-Science Reviews, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 258, С. 104886 - 104886

Опубликована: Авг. 14, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Past and future trends in swiss snow cover: multi-decades analysis using the snow observation from space algorithm

Frontiers in Remote Sensing, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 6

Опубликована: Фев. 13, 2025

Despite the large availability of satellite and in-situ data on snow cover in Northern Hemisphere, long-term assessments at an adequate resolution to capture complexities mountainous terrains remain limited, particularly for countries like Switzerland. This study addresses this gap by employing two products—the monthly NDSI (Normalized Difference Snow Index) products—derived from Observation Space (SOfS) algorithm monitor dynamics across Switzerland over past 37 years. The pixel-wise analysis reveals significant negative trends all seasons, with most pronounced decreases low mid-elevations, winter spring (e.g., a 50% reduction pixels showing positive significative below 1,000 m, 43% between 2,000 m). Similarly, area has declined significantly, reductions −13% −15% transitional zones 1,000–1,500 m 1,500–2,000 m. Furthermore, values are more strongly influenced temperature than precipitation, especially lower altitudes. To estimate 21st century, we modelled relationship presence climatic variables (temperature precipitation) using binomial generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). In context climate change, projections under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios suggest further declines end century. Even moderate action (RCP 2.6), snow-free areas could expand 22% elevations 2100. Under extreme scenario 8.5), regions increase 43%, impacts during months April May. SOfS algorithm, developed within Swiss Data Cube, provides valuable insights into Complementing observations, innovative approach is essential assessing changes guiding adaptation strategies country where not only environmental indicator but also cultural economic asset.

Язык: Английский

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Mapping the probability of forest fire hazard across the European Alps under climate change scenarios

Journal of Environmental Management, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 377, С. 124600 - 124600

Опубликована: Фев. 22, 2025

Forest fires are increasing in frequency and intensity worldwide due to the anthropogenic climate change, threatening people's lives causing huge economic environmental damages. Recent forest fire events suggest that also an urgent issue European Alps, but studies assessing hazard under future scenarios still rare. Thus, this study aims analyse impacts of change on probability across Alps surrounding areas. In specific, we (1) explain current based a set parameters, (2) map conditions area using geographically weighted regression. Our results mainly depends lightning strikes, annual mean temperature, precipitation seasonality. Overall, our indicate increase hazard, which is already significant SSP126 (+15.5%), while highest increases occur SSP370 (30.6%) SSP585 (35.4%). However, less pronounced fire-prone regions southwestern France, will greatly Northern Eastern regions. findings emphasize need address these climate-related challenges by decision-making management through fire-smart management. Nevertheless, further efforts needed overcome limitations related data availability uncertainties scenarios.

Язык: Английский

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