Abstract.
Atmospheric
rivers
(ARs)
are
closely
associated
with
historical
extreme
precipitation
events
over
East
Asia.
The
projected
increase
in
such
weather
systems
under
global
warming
has
been
extensively
discussed
previous
studies,
while
the
role
of
stratospheric
aerosol,
particularly
for
implementation
aerosol
intervention
(SAI),
a
change
remains
unknown.
Based
on
an
ensemble
UK
Earth
System
Model
(UKESM1)
simulations,
here
we
investigate
changes
frequency
ARs
and
their
mean
range
climate
forcing,
including
greenhouse
gas
emission
scenarios
high
(SSP5-8.5)
medium
(SSP2-4.5)
levels,
deployment
SAI
geoengineering
(G6sulfur)
solar
dimming
(G6solar).
result
indicates
significant
AR
AR-related
most
Asia
warmer
pronounced
observed
southern
China.
Comparing
to
G6solar
both
SSPs
scenarios,
G6sulfur
simulations
indicate
that
is
effective
partly
ameliorating
increases
activity
subtropical
region;
however,
it
may
more
mid-high
latitude
regions,
northeastern
China
Japan.
Such
response
further
weakening
mid-latitude
westerly
jet
stream
favours
high-latitude
activity.
This
driven
by
decreased
meridional
gradient
thermal
expansion
troposphere
cooling
across
tropical
region,
though
effectively
ameliorates
widespread
warming.
side
effect
populated
region
implies
caution
must
be
taken
when
considering
approaches
mitigating
hydrological
risk
change.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
129(3)
Опубликована: Янв. 31, 2024
Abstract
Understanding
the
present
and
future
features
of
atmospheric
rivers
(ARs)
is
critical
for
effective
disaster
prevention
mitigation
efforts.
This
study
comprehensively
assesses
performance
ARs
in
Phase
6
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
(CMIP6)
models
on
both
seasonal
interannual
timescales
within
historical
period
investigates
projection
under
different
emission
scenarios
a
global
scale.
The
multi‐model
mean
results
obtained
using
PanLu
detection
algorithm
consistently
exhibit
agreement
with
observational
AR
climatology
capture
fluctuations
as
well
relationships
large‐scale
drivers.
projections
reveal
increased
frequency,
intensity,
duration,
spatial
extent
decreased
landfall
intervals
regional
variations
fluctuations.
Besides,
frequency
increase
will
accelerate
around
middle
century,
attributed
to
non‐linear
rise
surface
temperature.
Furthermore,
mid‐latitude
are
gradually
shifting
toward
higher
latitudes
hemispheres
SSP585,
Greenland
experiencing
substantial
AR‐induced
precipitation.
hydrological
implications
arising
from
more
frequent
manifested
prominently
heavy
precipitation
(HP),
regions
historically
characterized
by
lower
occurrence
also
receiving
percentage
ARs.
At
last,
an
incremental
decomposition
highlights
dominant
role
thermal
effects
relatively
limited
contributions
dynamical
changes.
interplay
between
regionally
divergent
temperature
amplification
dynamically
driven
responses
across
globe.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
129(5)
Опубликована: Фев. 29, 2024
Abstract
Accurate
forecasting
of
atmospheric
rivers
(ARs)
holds
significance
in
preventing
losses
from
extreme
precipitation.
However,
traditional
numerical
weather
prediction
(NWP)
models
are
computationally
expensive
and
can
be
limited
accuracy
due
to
inaccurate
physical
parameter
settings.
To
overcome
these
limitations,
we
propose
a
deep
learning
(DL)
model,
called
GAN‐UNet,
forecast
the
AR
occurrence,
position,
intensity
East
Asia.
GAN‐UNet
capture
complex
nonlinear
relationship
between
inputs
at
past
moment,
including
vertically
integrated
water
vapor
transport
(IVT),
zonal
wind
850
hPa
(U850),
meridional
(V850),
output
(IVT,
U850,
or
V850),
whose
results
comparable
NWP
models.
In
addition,
average
model
(AM)
by
integrating
generated
European
Centre
for
Medium‐Range
Weather
Forecasts
(ECMWF)
outperforms
all
selected
this
study,
demonstrating
its
potential
improve
performance
through
DL
method.
Specifically,
5‐day
F1
scores
AM
0.777
0.845,
values
significantly
better
than
those
obtained
ECMWF
(0.712
0.794)
two
key
regions
Asia;
The
intersection
over
unions
0.706
0.688
while
0.675
0.64;
terms
forecast,
exhibited
lower
differences
most
bins,
except
final
bin
with
IVT
more
825
kg
m
−1
s
.
With
thorough
analysis,
is
shown
as
an
effective
ARs.
Bulletin of the National Research Centre/Bulletin of the National Research Center,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
49(1)
Опубликована: Янв. 28, 2025
Abstract
Climate
variability
and
atmospheric
changes
significantly
affect
weather
patterns
human
activities.
Aerosols
impact
the
Earth's
climate
by
influencing
cloud
formation,
scattering
radiation,
cooling
planet.
However,
aerosols,
like
black
carbon,
absorb
reemit
contributing
to
global
warming.
This
study
aims
assess
aerosol
optical
depth
(AOD)
over
Nigeria's
Guinea
Coast,
compare
loading
across
region,
examine
relationship
between
geopotential
height,
explore
of
meteorological
variables
on
levels.
AOD
data
were
sourced
from
MODIS,
while
height
was
obtained
MERRA-2.
The
found
significant
during
dry
season,
particularly
along
coastal
region
(Lagos,
Warri,
Port
Harcourt),
lower
wet
season.
Geopotential
values
higher
especially
at
1000-hPa
850-hPa.
A
positive
correlation
height.
Wind
speeds
in
north
coast,
with
specific
humidity
directly
correlating
inversely
wind
speed.
also
showed
that
annual
distribution
mirrors
1000-hPa,
southern
Nigeria.
In
conclusion,
is
regions
highlights
how
seasonal
geographical
factors
influence
distribution.
It
shows
strongly
affects
concentration,
heights
linked
increased
AOD.
underscores
importance
surface-level
aerosols
for
health,
agriculture,
visibility,
suggests
influences
where
highest.
Atmospheric chemistry and physics,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
23(2), С. 1687 - 1703
Опубликована: Янв. 30, 2023
Abstract.
Atmospheric
rivers
(ARs)
are
closely
associated
with
historical
extreme
precipitation
events
over
East
Asia.
The
projected
increase
in
such
weather
systems
under
global
warming
has
been
extensively
discussed
previous
studies,
while
the
role
of
stratospheric
aerosol,
particularly
for
implementation
aerosol
intervention
(SAI),
a
change
remains
unknown.
Based
on
an
ensemble
UK
Earth
System
Model
(UKESM1)
simulations,
here
we
investigate
changes
frequency
ARs
and
their
mean
range
climate
forcing,
including
greenhouse
gas
emission
scenarios
high
(SSP5–8.5)
medium
(SSP2–4.5)
levels,
deployment
SAI
geoengineering
(G6sulfur),
solar
dimming
(G6solar).
result
indicates
significant
AR
AR-related
most
Asia
warmer
climate,
pronounced
observed
southern
China.
Comparing
G6solar
both
Shared
Socioeconomic
Pathway
(SSP)
scenarios,
G6sulfur
simulations
indicate
that
is
effective
at
partly
ameliorating
increases
activity
subtropical
region;
however,
it
may
more
upper-midlatitude
regions,
northeastern
Such
response
further
weakening
westerly
jet
stream
favours
activity.
This
driven
by
decreased
meridional
gradient
thermal
expansion
mid–high
troposphere
cooling
across
tropical
region,
though
effectively
ameliorates
widespread
warming.
side
effect
populated
region
implies
caution
must
be
taken
when
considering
approaches
to
mitigating
hydrological
risk
change.
Water Resources Research,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
60(12)
Опубликована: Дек. 1, 2024
Abstract
Global
warming
has
changed
both
the
amount
of
global
precipitation
and
atmospheric
capacity
to
retain
water.
In
this
paper,
a
novel
definition
long‐term
Capturability
Atmospheric
Water
(CAW)
based
on
horizontal
water
transport
is
proposed,
describing
ability
certain
area
intercept
convert
transported
by
moisture
flux
into
local
precipitation.
The
significant
decrease
CAW
in
Amazon
Congo
rainforests
Inside
Greenland
indicates
that
these
areas
were
having
less
with
same
vapor
past
42
years,
while
Asia
(especially
China),
showing
large‐scale
increasing
trend,
verifying
regional
humidifying.
Considering
change
background
simultaneously,
their
mismatch
degree
also
investigated.
positive
Qinghai
Tibet
Plateau,
Greenland,
Andes,
suggests
higher
susceptibility
climate
change,
negative
(Amazon,
Maritime
Continent,
southeastern
China,
Eastern
United
States,
India,
Japan),
more
stable
response
expected.
proposed
concept
provides
perspective
analyze
scale.
Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
48(1), С. 96 - 112
Опубликована: Ноя. 15, 2023
Dynamics
of
the
terrestrial
water
surface
impact
hydrological
connectivity.
Compared
with
traditionally
deployed
parameters,
changes
in
water-boundary
more
effectively
account
for
dynamics
and
depth
resulting
from
variations.
However,
previous
studies
connectivity
generally
applied
only
length
or
width
parameters
using
center
line
body
therefore
fail
to
fully
capture
boundary
dynamics.
In
this
study,
optimized
extraction
indices
based
on
data
obtained
remote
sensing
imagery
are
used
develop
a
novel
metric
that
indicates
reveal
Yangtze
River
Delta
1990
2020.
Detailed
inter-annual
seasonal
evolution
boundaries
perspective
indicate
an
overall
decline
against
background
climate
change,
increased
urbanization,
dam
construction.
The
declining
trend
occurs
three
phases,
viz.
2003,
gradual
is
exhibited
but
very
marked
degree
inter-seasonal
variability;
between
2003
2012,
remains
relatively
constant
reduced
amplitude
seasons;
further
reductions
magnitude
variations
characterize
third
phase,
Meanwhile,
stability
connectivity,
indicated
by
coefficient
variation,
also
exhibits
spatial
heterogeneity.
Parts
delta
tributaries,
including
Huaihe
southeastern
basins,
have
lower
(7.33
6.59,
respectively)
than
basin
(6.22).
This
study
presents
achieve
greater
precision
monitoring
Such
information
can
be
harnessed
improve
regional
ecological
resource
management.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
129(5)
Опубликована: Март 5, 2024
Abstract
The
atmospheric
river
(AR)
is
a
long,
narrow,
and
transient
corridor
of
strong
horizontal
water
vapor
transport.
Various
AR
detection
methods
have
been
proposed,
which
introduced
significant
uncertainty
to
the
identified
characteristics.
This
study
has
designed
data
fusion
algorithm
merge
12
sets
different
global
regional
identification
algorithms
published
by
Atmospheric
River
Tracking
Method
Intercomparison
Project
(ARTMIP)
covering
period
from
1980
2016.
It
aims
conduct
frequency
statistics
further
research
distribution,
interannual
variation,
trends
in
poleward
shifting,
impacted
factors
occurrence.
quantitative
results
indicate
an
overall
increasing
trend
with
more
pronounced
growth
observed
oceanic
region
between
40
60ºS.
Additionally,
identifies
shift
peak
latitude
occurrence
frequency,
speeds
0.589°
0.769°
per
decade
Northern
Southern
Hemispheres,
respectively.
may
be
associated
tropical
expansion.
Upon
examining
relationship
sea
surface
temperature
(SST)
as
well
zonal
wind,
finds
that
distinct
dominant
influence
regions.
events
near
30°N/S
ocean
are
influenced
significantly
wind
than
SST.
These
findings
shed
light
on
characteristics
occurrences
provide
insights
into
governing
their
variability
across
areas.
