Urban
areas
are
currently
vulnerable
to
the
effects
of
extreme
weather
events.
Climate
change
is
expected
increase
such
events,
including
heatwaves,
on
which
we
focusing
on.
Our
aim
quantify
how
heatwave
exposure
will
evolve
with
climate
and
its
impact
populations.
We
take
advantage
convection-permitting
scale
CNRM-AROME
(2.5-km)
coupled
urban
canopy
model
TEB,
capture
(in
particular
heat
island,
UHI)
their
interactions
regional
processes.
The
simulations
cover
an
extended
area
France
for
historical
(1986-2005)
future
(2080-2099)
periods
using
RCP8.5
emission
scenario.
indicator
(based
Ouzeau
et
al.,
2016)
applied
separately
assess
respective
associated
rural
areas.
projects
a
strong
shift
in
minimum
maximum
temperature
distribution
warmer
values
future,
especially
Related
stronger
increase,
diurnal
nocturnal
UHI
reduction.
Nevertheless,
heatwaves
intensity,
duration
frequency
projected
both
climatic
geographical
disparities.
results
soon
be
multi-model
approach
framework
CORDEX
FPS
URB-RCC.
Climate Dynamics,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
62(6), С. 4673 - 4696
Опубликована: Май 11, 2024
Abstract
Meteorological
processes
over
islands
with
complex
orography
could
be
better
simulated
by
Convection
Permitting
Regional
Climate
Models
(CP-RCMs)
thanks
to
an
improved
representation
of
the
orography,
land–sea
contrasts,
combination
coastal
and
orographic
effects,
explicit
deep
convection.
This
paper
evaluates
ability
CP-RCM
CNRM-AROME
(2.5-km
horizontal
resolution)
simulate
relevant
meteorological
characteristics
Mediterranean
island
Corsica
for
2000–2018
period.
These
hindcast
simulations
are
compared
their
driving
Model
(RCM)
CNRM-ALADIN
(12.5-km
resolution
parameterised
convection),
weather
stations
precipitation
wind
gridded
datasets.
The
main
benefits
found
in
(i)
extremes
resulting
mainly
from
mesoscale
convective
systems
affected
steep
mountains
during
autumn
(ii)
formation
convection
through
thermally
induced
diurnal
circulations
interaction
summer.
Simulations
hourly
extremes,
cycle
precipitation,
distribution
intensities,
duration
events,
sea
breezes
all
2.5-km
respect
RCM,
confirming
added
value.
However,
existing
differences
between
model
observations
difficult
explain
as
biases
related
availability
quality
observations,
particularly
at
high
elevations.
Overall,
results
resolution,
increase
our
confidence
CP-RCMs
investigate
future
climate
projections
terrain.
Natural hazards and earth system sciences,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
24(4), С. 1163 - 1183
Опубликована: Апрель 3, 2024
Abstract.
Floods
are
the
primary
natural
hazard
in
French
Mediterranean
area,
causing
damages
and
fatalities
every
year.
These
floods
triggered
by
heavy
precipitation
events
(HPEs)
characterized
limited
temporal
spatial
extents.
A
new
generation
of
regional
climate
models
at
kilometer
scale
have
been
developed,
allowing
an
explicit
representation
deep
convection
improved
simulations
local-scale
phenomena
such
as
HPEs.
Convection-permitting
(CPMs)
scarcely
used
hydrological
impact
studies,
future
projections
remain
uncertain
with
(RCMs).
In
this
paper,
we
use
CNRM-AROME
CPM
(2.5
km)
its
driving
CNRM-ALADIN
RCM
(12
hourly
timescale
to
simulate
over
Gardon
d'Anduze
catchment
located
region.
Climate
bias-corrected
CDF-t
method.
Two
models,
a
lumped
conceptual
model
(GR5H)
process-based
distributed
(CREST),
forced
historical
from
RCM,
used.
The
confirms
ability
better
reproduce
extreme
rainfall
compared
RCM.
This
added
value
is
propagated
on
flood
simulation
reproduction
peaks.
Future
consistent
between
but
differ
two
models.
Using
magnitude
all
projected
increase.
With
CPM,
threshold
effect
found:
largest
expected
intensify,
while
less
severe
decrease.
addition,
different
event
characteristics
indicate
that
become
flashier
warmer
climate,
shorter
lag
time
runoff
peak
smaller
contribution
base
flow,
regardless
model.
study
first
step
for
studies
driven
CPMs
Mediterranean.
Sustainability,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
15(15), С. 11923 - 11923
Опубликована: Авг. 3, 2023
In
this
study,
we
have
investigated
changes
in
precipitation
extremes
and
the
population’s
exposure
to
these
during
2091–2099
China’s
Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei
(JJJ)
region
relative
historical
period
of
1991–1999.
First,
regional
climate
model
RegCM4,
with
a
hydrostatic
dynamic
core,
was
run
for
east
Asia,
including
China,
at
12
km
resolution
1990–1999
2090–2099.
This
is
forced
by
global
(GCM)
MPI-ESM1.2-HR
under
middle
shared
socioeconomic
pathways
(SSP245).
The
first
year
used
as
spinup.
Then,
results
were
force
RegCM4
non-hydrostatic
core
(RegcM4-NH)
3
convection-permitting
scale
over
JJJ
future
periods.
Future
predicted
increase
whole
China
its
four
subregions,
while
decreases
region.
may
partly
be
caused
lower
increases
specific
humidity
percentage
contributions
three
components
total
population
exposure,
i.e.,
due
population,
joint
impact
extremes,
then
analyzed.
Changes
wet
closely
related
dominant
factor
that
most
impacts
dry
extremes.
Finally,
per
degree
warming
quantified
Research Square (Research Square),
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Сен. 13, 2023
Abstract
Meteorological
processes
over
islands
with
complex
orography
could
be
better
simulated
by
Convection
Permitting
Regional
Climate
Models
(CP-RCMs)
thanks
to
an
improved
representation
of
the
orography,
land-sea
contrasts,
combination
coastal
and
orographic
effects,
explicit
deep
convection.
This
paper
evaluates
ability
CP-RCM
CNRM-AROME
(2.5-km
horizontal
resolution)
simulate
relevant
meteorological
characteristics
Mediterranean
island
Corsica
for
2000-2018
period.
These
hindcast
simulations
are
compared
their
driving
Model
(RCM)
CNRM-ALADIN
(12.5-km
resolution
parameterised
convection),
weather
stations
precipitation
wind
gridded
datasets.
The
main
benefits
found
in
i)
extremes
resulting
mainly
from
mesoscale
convective
systems
affected
steep
mountains
during
autumn
winter
months
ii)
formation
convection
through
thermally
induced
diurnal
circulations
interaction
summer.
Simulations
hourly
extremes,
cycle
precipitation,
distribution
intensities,
duration
events,
sea
breezes
all
2.5-km
respect
RCM,
confirming
added
value.
However,
existing
differences
between
model
observations
difficult
explain
as
biases
related
availability
quality
observations,
particularly
at
high
elevations.
Overall,
results
resolution,
increase
our
confidence
CP-RCMs
investigate
future
climate
projections
terrain.
Atmosphere,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
15(1), С. 91 - 91
Опубликована: Янв. 10, 2024
In
recent
decades,
climate
change
has
become
a
critical
global
issue
with
far-reaching
consequences
for
regional
climates
and
ecosystems.
While
models
provide
valuable
information,
there
is
growing
need
high-resolution
simulations
to
assess
local
impacts.
This
paper
addresses
this
gap
by
presenting
the
first
simulation
of
3
km
convection-permitting
(CP)
scenario
Bulgaria.
The
main
aim
study
different
precipitation
indices
their
future
changes
Bulgaria
under
Representative
Concentration
Pathway
8.5
(RCP8.5)
following
Coordinated
Regional
Climate
Downscaling
Experiment
Flagship
Pilot
Study
protocol.
are
evaluated
against
observations.
We
downscale
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
5
Global
(CMIP5
GCM)
data
historical
(1995–2004)
(2089–2098)
periods
using
model
(RCM)
at
15
grid
spacing
parametrized
convection.
use
these
fields
as
initial
boundary
conditions
kilometer-scale
simulations.
driving
used
reference
added
value
simulation.
Additionally,
seasonal
mean
projected
2
m
temperature
winter
snow
water
equivalent
presented.
results
show
that
shows
better
performance
wet-hour
intensity
in
all
seasons,
frequency
spring,
fall,
winter,
extreme
(99.9th
percentile
events,
p99.9)
fall.
improves
distribution
modifies
signal
frequency,
intensity,
heavy
over
some
areas.
A
positive
expected
seasons
(13.86%
MAM,
17.48%
summer,
JJA,
1.97%
SON,
17.43%
DJF)
spring
(13.14%)
(31.19%)
experiment.
increase
accompanied
significant
decrease
snowfall
lowlands
(50−70%).
Model,
version
4.7.1
(RegCM4.7.1)
suggests
an
highest
parts
country,
but
temperatures
there.
encouraging
may
be
interest
community
scientists
users
making
reliable
estimates
impacts
change.
Geoscientific model development,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
17(21), С. 7645 - 7677
Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2024
Abstract.
Snow
cover
modeling
remains
a
major
challenge
in
climate
and
numerical
weather
prediction
(NWP)
models
even
recent
versions
of
high-resolution
coupled
surface–atmosphere
(i.e.,
at
kilometer
scale)
regional
models.
Evaluation
simulations,
carried
out
as
part
the
WCRP-CORDEX
Flagship
Pilot
Study
on
Convection
(FPSCONV)
with
CNRM-AROME
convection-permitting
model
2.5
km
horizontal
resolution,
has
highlighted
significant
snow
biases,
severely
limiting
its
potential
mountain
regions.
These
which
are
also
found
AROME
results,
have
multiple
causes,
involving
atmospheric
processes
their
influence
input
data
to
land
surface
addition
deficiencies
itself.
Here
we
present
improved
configurations
SURFEX-ISBA
used
CNRM-AROME.
We
thoroughly
evaluated
these
ability
represent
seasonal
across
European
Alps.
Our
evaluation
was
based
simulations
spanning
winters
2018–2019
2019–2020,
were
compared
against
remote
sensing
situ
observations.
More
specifically,
study
tests
various
changes
configuration,
such
use
multi-layer
soil
schemes,
division
energy
balance
calculation
by
type
within
grid
cell
(multiple
patches),
new
physiographic
databases
parameter
adjustments.
findings
indicate
that
using
only
more
detailed
individual
components
did
not
improve
representation
due
limitations
approach
account
for
partial
cell.
addressed
further
highlight
importance,
taking
into
main
subgrid
heterogeneities
improving
representations
interactions
between
fractional
vegetation.
Ultimately,
introduce
substantially
improves
Alps
simulations.
This
holds
promising
both
other
