International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
8(1), С. 1 - 23
Опубликована: Сен. 20, 2024
Understanding
how
climate
change
affects
the
frequency
and
length
of
temperature
rainfall
is
global
issue.
Climate
statistical
variations
over
an
extended
period
in
features
system,
such
as
temperatures
precipitation,
caused
by
human
natural
sources.
In
this
work
coordinated
regional
downscaling
experiment
for
Africa,
which
integrates
forecasts
from
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project5
based
on
ensemble
GCM
RCM
model
was
used
to
statistically
downscale
scenarios.
This
study
aimed
estimate
impacts
rainfall.
The
impact
has
been
evaluated
reporting
under
RCP4.5
8.5
For
extraction
bias
correction
daily
maximum
minimum
temperature,
well
30-year
overlap
periods,
CMhyd
employed.
annual
are
predicted
increase
2.94,
3.45,
3.21,
3.59°C
increased
2.61,
2.83,
2.71
3.36°C
RCP8.5
respectively.
reveals
average
decreases
8.45
9.3%
10.5
10.95%
at
8.5,
Considering
parameters,
trends
but
rainfall,
large
fluctuations
were
predicted.
Moreover,
years
parameters
all
simulated
models,
scenario
estimated
a
higher
amount
than
scenario.
Implement
various
trees,
apply
water
harvesting
structure,
Surface
runoff
more
multiple
GCM-RCM
driving
models
with
outputs
improve
prediction
accuracy
future
studies.
Scientific Reports,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
14(1)
Опубликована: Июнь 3, 2024
Abstract
Prince
Edward
Island
(PEI)
is
an
agricultural
province
heavily
relying
on
rainfed
agriculture.
The
island
has
already
experienced
significant
impacts
from
climate
change.
Accurate
projections
of
PEI
temperature
extreme
indices
are
required
to
mitigate
and
adapt
the
changing
conditions.
This
study
aims
develop
ensemble
using
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
Phase
6
(CMIP6)
global
circulation
models
(GCMs)
analyze
extremes
PEI.
In
this
study,
ECMWF
ERA5
reanalysis
dataset
was
chosen
for
stepwise
cluster
analysis
(SCA)
due
its
high
accuracy.
Three
CMIP6
(NorESM2-MM,
MPI-ESM1.2-HR,
CanESM5)
GCMs,
along
with
their
average,
were
utilized
in
SCA
model
project
future
changes
daily
maximum
(Tmax)
minimum
(Tmin)
at
four
meteorological
stations
(East
Point,
Charlottetown,
Summerside,
North
Cape)
under
two
shared
socioeconomic
pathways
(SSP2-4.5
SSP5-8.5).
These
GCMs
selected
based
low,
medium,
Equilibrium
Climate
Sensitivity.
bias-corrected
results
period
Tmax
Tmin
showed
that
GCM-specific
ECS
also
impact
regional
scale.
Additionally,
several
indices,
including
range
(DTR),
summer
days
(SU),
growing
degree
(GDD),
season
length
(GSL),
ice
(ID),
frost
(FD),
analyzed
periods:
FP1(202–2050)
FP2
(2051–2075).
indicate
DTR,
SU,
GDD,
GSL
expected
increase,
while
ID
FD
projected
decrease
during
FP1
both
scenarios.
mean
monthly
Tmax,
Tmin,
highlight
warmer
periods
increase
agriculture-related
such
as
GDD
GSL.
Specifically,
July,
August,
September
experience
even
higher
temperatures
future.
As
becomes
warmer,
cold
events
be
shorter
duration
but
more
intense
terms
impact.
largest
increments/decrements
relevant
observed
SSP5-8.5.
outcomes
provide
valuable
insights
development,
water
resource
management,
formulation
effective
mitigation
strategies
address
change
Water,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
16(17), С. 2498 - 2498
Опубликована: Сен. 3, 2024
Monitoring
future
irrigation
water
demand
as
a
part
of
agricultural
interventions
is
crucial
to
ensure
food
security.
In
this
study,
the
impact
climate
change
on
paddy
cultivation
in
Brunei
investigated,
focusing
Wasan
rice
scheme.
This
research
aims
project
requirement
(IWR)
and
crop
(CWR)
or
main
off
season
using
WEAP-MABIA
model.
Historical
data
analysis
over
past
30
years
projections
up
2100
are
employed
assess
potential
impacts.
An
ensemble
statistically
downscaled
models,
based
seven
CMIP6
GCMs
under
shared
socioeconomic
pathways
(SSPs)
(SSP245,
SSP370,
SSP585),
was
utilised
IWR
CWR.
Using
data,
three
periods
were
bias-corrected
quantile
delta
mapping
(QDM)
for
2020–2046
(near
future),
2047–2073
(mid
2074–2100
(far
future).
The
model
utilises
dual
coefficient
approach
evaluate
evapotranspiration
(ETc),
critical
factor
computing
IWR.
Results
indicate
that
changes
temperatures
will
lead
higher
average
ETc.
Consequently,
results
elevated
demands
during
season,
it
especially
prominent
high-emission
scenarios
(SSP370
SSP585).
While
experiences
relatively
stable
slightly
increasing
trend,
consistently
shows
decreasing
trend
Moreover,
benefits
from
substantial
rainfall
increases,
effectively
reducing
despite
rise
both
maximum
minimum
temperatures.
study
also
highlights
some
recommendations
implementing
possible
improvements
management
address
effects
region.
Future
investigation
should
focus
enhancing
yield
predictions
by
integrating
dynamic
growth
adjusts
changing
(Kc)
values.
Geophysical Research Letters,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
50(24)
Опубликована: Дек. 15, 2023
Abstract
The
unprecedented
2021
June‐July
heatwave
in
Western
North
America
resulted
record‐breaking
human‐perceived
heat
stress
across
the
region,
measured
by
humidex
considering
both
air
temperature
and
humidity.
During
extended
summer
(June‐September),
95th
percentiles
of
daily
maximum
(HX95)
(TX95)
have
increased
over
1940–2022
period,
with
even
faster
intensification
last
two
decades
(2001–2022).
HX95
has
more
than
TX95
because
positive
monotonic
nonlinear
relationship
between
at
a
given
level
relative
Canadian
Earth
System
Model
version
5
(CanESM5)
projects
larger
increase
region
under
low
to
high
emission
scenarios
(HX95
increases
4.40–7.04°C
2.92–4.65°C
1981–2010
2041–2060).
Moreover,
CanESM5
significant
frequency
HX
TX
conditions
that
exceed
levels
reached
intermediate
scenarios.
International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
8(1), С. 1 - 23
Опубликована: Сен. 20, 2024
Understanding
how
climate
change
affects
the
frequency
and
length
of
temperature
rainfall
is
global
issue.
Climate
statistical
variations
over
an
extended
period
in
features
system,
such
as
temperatures
precipitation,
caused
by
human
natural
sources.
In
this
work
coordinated
regional
downscaling
experiment
for
Africa,
which
integrates
forecasts
from
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project5
based
on
ensemble
GCM
RCM
model
was
used
to
statistically
downscale
scenarios.
This
study
aimed
estimate
impacts
rainfall.
The
impact
has
been
evaluated
reporting
under
RCP4.5
8.5
For
extraction
bias
correction
daily
maximum
minimum
temperature,
well
30-year
overlap
periods,
CMhyd
employed.
annual
are
predicted
increase
2.94,
3.45,
3.21,
3.59°C
increased
2.61,
2.83,
2.71
3.36°C
RCP8.5
respectively.
reveals
average
decreases
8.45
9.3%
10.5
10.95%
at
8.5,
Considering
parameters,
trends
but
rainfall,
large
fluctuations
were
predicted.
Moreover,
years
parameters
all
simulated
models,
scenario
estimated
a
higher
amount
than
scenario.
Implement
various
trees,
apply
water
harvesting
structure,
Surface
runoff
more
multiple
GCM-RCM
driving
models
with
outputs
improve
prediction
accuracy
future
studies.
