ERA5 Reproduces Key Features of Global Precipitation Trends in A Warming Climate

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Апрель 23, 2025

ABSTRACT The largest impact of future climate changes on societies and ecosystems will likely come from precipitation variability change. Using the ERA5 dataset, this global study examines trends using many parameters across five main components: amount, frequency, type, wet dry spells, extremes. Global are summarised by land ocean areas, region, then zonally averaged to identify broader patterns interactions that may not be apparent in local regional scale studies, especially with a reanalysis dataset. We find dataset was able reproduce key features change: near‐ubiquitous increase extreme precipitation, Arctic transition snowfall rainfall regime mid‐to high latitudes, contrasting sign change amount frequency between ocean. Two noteworthy findings (1) spatial intensification around warmest locations (equatorial region) is matched temporal time year (summer months) northern hemisphere, (2) Himalayas show altitudinal stratification phase changes. Finally, consistent other we synoptic weather types influence scaling temperature should explored research. Additionally, results compared those GPCC, GPCP, MERRA‐2 datasets evaluate robustness results. Daily, annual, seasonal means, including inter‐annual estimates align strongly three validation datasets; however, mixed results, minimal moderate agreement. In general, GPCC most similar ERA5.

Язык: Английский

Comparison of Precipitation Rates from Global Datasets for the Five-Year Period from 2019 to 2023

Hydrology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 12(1), С. 4 - 4

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Precipitation is a fundamental component of the hydrologic cycle and an extremely important variable in meteorological, climatological, hydrological studies. Reliable climate information including accurate precipitation data essential for identifying trends variability as well applying models purposes such estimating (surface) water availability predicting flooding. In this study, I compared rates from five reanalysis datasets one analysis dataset—the European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA-5), Japanese 55-Year (JRA-55), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis Research Applications 2 (MERRA-2), National Center Environmental Prediction/National Atmospheric 1 (NCEP/NCAR R1), NCEP/Department Energy (NCEP/DOE R2), NCEP/Climate Forecast System (NCEP/CFSv2)—with merged satellite rain gauge dataset Global Climatology Project 2.3 (GPCPv2.3). The latter was taken reference due to its global oceans. Monthly mean most recent five-year period 2019 2023 were chosen comparison, which included calculating differences, percentage errors, Spearman correlation coefficients, root square errors (RMSEs). ERA-5 showed highest agreement with lowest maximum correlation, smallest RMSE. correlations observed between NCEP/NCAR R1 GPCPv2.3. NCEP/DOE R2 significantly higher than (only JRA-55 higher), second correlations,

Язык: Английский

Precipitation Characteristics and Mechanisms over Sri Lanka against the Background of the Western Indian Ocean: 1981–2020

Atmosphere, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(8), С. 962 - 962

Опубликована: Авг. 12, 2024

In the current environment of climate change, precipitation situation marine islands is particularly valued. So, this study explores characteristics and mechanisms over Sri Lanka in background western Indian Ocean using satellite reanalysis datasets based on 40 years (from 1981 to 2020). The results show that highest occurs between October December, accounting for 46.3% entire year. sea surface temperature warming after 2002 significantly influences patterns. Particularly during Second Inter-Monsoon, induces an east–west zonal gradient, leading low-level circulation westerly wind anomalies. This, turn, increased December. This used Trend-Free Pre-Whitening Mann–Kendall test Sen’s slope estimator nine extreme indices, identifying a significant upward trend events Jaffna, arid northern Lanka, peaking 9 November 2021. event due influence weather systems like Siberian High intense convective activities, transporting substantial moisture Jaffna from Ocean, Arabian Sea, Bay Bengal winter. findings highlight impact anomalies events, anticipated be more accentuated Lanka’s monsoon season. research provides valuable insights into variability tropical precipitation, offering scientific basis sustainable development islands.

Язык: Английский