Trends and variability in the ocean carbon sink

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 4(2), С. 119 - 134

Опубликована: Янв. 24, 2023

Язык: Английский

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The unexpected radiative impact of the Hunga Tonga eruption of 15th January 2022

Communications Earth & Environment, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 3(1)

Опубликована: Ноя. 19, 2022

Abstract The underwater Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha-apai volcano erupted in the early hours of 15th January 2022, and injected volcanic gases aerosols to over 50 km altitude. Here we synthesise satellite, ground-based, situ radiosonde observations eruption investigate strength stratospheric aerosol water vapour perturbations initial weeks after quantify net radiative impact across two species using offline transfer modelling. We find that produced largest global perturbation since Pinatubo 1991 observed satellite era. Immediately eruption, cooling dominated local heating/cooling rates, while at top-of-the-atmosphere surface, forcing. However, weeks, due dispersion/dilution, heating started dominate forcing, leading a warming climate system.

Язык: Английский

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Climate change: Strategies for mitigation and adaptation

The Innovation Geoscience, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 1(1), С. 100015 - 100015

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

<p>The sustainability of life on Earth is under increasing threat due to human-induced climate change. This perilous change in the Earth's caused by increases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases atmosphere, primarily emissions associated with burning fossil fuels. Over next two three decades, effects change, such as heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, storms, floods, are expected worsen, posing greater risks human health global stability. These trends call for implementation mitigation adaptation strategies. Pollution environmental degradation exacerbate existing problems make people nature more susceptible In this review, we examine current state from different perspectives. We summarize evidence Earth’s spheres, discuss emission pathways drivers analyze impact health. also explore strategies highlight key challenges reversing adapting change.</p>

Язык: Английский

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Interactive stratospheric aerosol models' response to different amounts and altitudes of SO₂ injection during the 1991 Pinatubo eruption

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 23(2), С. 921 - 948

Опубликована: Янв. 19, 2023

Abstract. A previous model intercomparison of the Tambora aerosol cloud has highlighted substantial differences among simulated volcanic properties in pre-industrial stratosphere and led to questions about applicability global models for large-magnitude explosive eruptions prior observational period. Here, we compare evolution stratospheric following well-observed June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption with six interactive microphysics a range data sets. Our primary focus is on uncertainties regarding initial SO2 emission eruption, as prescribed Historical Eruptions Emission Assessment experiments (HErSEA), framework Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP). Six took part this study: ECHAM6-SALSA, EMAC, ECHAM5-HAM, SOCOL-AERv2, ULAQ-CCM, UM-UKCA. simulations are performed by varying injection amount (ranging between 5 10 Tg S) altitude (between 18–25 km). The comparisons show that all consistently demonstrate faster reduction from peak sulfate mass burden tropical stratosphere. Most also stronger transport towards extratropics Northern Hemisphere, at expense observed confinement, suggesting much weaker subtropical barrier models, which results shorter e-folding time compared observations. Furthermore, more than S form injected an overestimation tropics and, some Hemisphere large surface area density few months after values measured situ measurements over Laramie. This draws attention importance including processes such ash removal lofting through local heating.

Язык: Английский

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A robust reduction in near-surface wind speed after volcanic eruptions: Implications for wind energy generation

The Innovation, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 6(1), С. 100734 - 100734

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Public summary•Volcanic eruptions and geoengineering aerosol injections could significantly reduce wind speeds, impacting energy.•Simulations reveal a consistent 2-year global speed reduction after volcanic eruptions.•The is linked to decrease in downward momentum flux, triggered by forcing.•The 1815 Tambora eruption led ∼9.2% power density the following 2 years.AbstractNear-surface (NSWS), determinant of energy, influenced both natural anthropogenic factors. However, specific impacts on NSWS, remain unexplored. Our simulations spanning last millennium NSWS 10 major historical eruptions. This equates an approximately two inter-annual standard deviations from AD 851 1849. weakening subtropical descending air forcing. The eruption, one most powerful recent history, subsequent years. research fills knowledge gap, establishes theoretical foundation for empirical studies, highlights potential energy risks large atmospheric injections, including eruptions, nuclear warfare, climate intervention.Graphical abstract

Язык: Английский

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Climate Projections Very Likely Underestimate Future Volcanic Forcing and Its Climatic Effects

Geophysical Research Letters, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 50(12)

Опубликована: Июнь 13, 2023

Abstract Standard climate projections represent future volcanic eruptions by a constant forcing inferred from 1850 to 2014 forcing. Using the latest ice‐core and satellite records design stochastic eruption scenarios, we show that there is 95% probability explosive could emit more sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) into stratosphere over 2015–2100 than current standard (i.e., ScenarioMIP). Our simulations using UK Earth System Model with interactive stratospheric aerosols for median scenario, average global‐mean aerosol optical depth (SAOD) double used in ScenarioMIP, small‐magnitude (<3 Tg of SO contributing 50% SAOD perturbations. We effects on large‐scale indicators, including global surface temperature, sea level ice extent, are underestimated ScenarioMIP because do not fully account recurrent frequency different magnitudes.

Язык: Английский

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Spatial and Temporal Quantification of Subaerial Volcanism From 1980 to 2019: Solid Products, Masses, and Average Eruptive Rates

Reviews of Geophysics, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 61(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 10, 2023

Abstract Volcanism is one of the main mechanisms transferring mass and energy between interior Earth Earth's surface. However, global flux lava, volcanic ash explosive pyroclastic deposits not well constrained. Here we review published estimates erupted products from 1980 to 2019 by a compilation. We identified 1,064 magmatic eruptions that occurred Smithsonian Global Program database. For each eruption, reported both total its partitioning into different products. Using this data set, quantified temporal spatial evolution subaerial volcanism at regional scale. The magma in analyzed decade ranged 1.1–4.9 × 10 13 kg. Lava product representing ∼57% magma. related biggest (Magnitude ≥6), with long recurrence times, can temporarily make more abundant than lava (e.g., 1990–1999). Twenty‐three volcanoes produced ∼72% mass, while two sets 15 >70% either effusive or At scale, 40‐year average eruptive rates calculated have same magnitude as long‐term (from thousand millions years), because cases are scaled for times comparable time occurred.

Язык: Английский

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PDO influenced interdecadal summer precipitation change over East China in mid-18th century

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7(1)

Опубликована: Май 29, 2024

Abstract There have been few case studies of the relationship between Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and East Asian climate before pre-industrial era with limited anthropogenic impacts. Using CESM Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) simulation reconstruction evidence, we showed that there was an interdecadal transition summer precipitation in China, pattern “southern flooding northern drought” mid-18th century. The influenced by PDO, as suggested both evidence simulation. Corresponding to positive PDO phase change, Asia-Pacific teleconnection wave train propagated northward modulated circulation together southward movement westerly jet. volcanic double or clustered eruptions are thought played a crucial role on shift decadal change over China during Incorporating activity reasonable manner would likely improve simulations past predictions future.

Язык: Английский

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Random forest regression feature importance for climate impact pathway detection

Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 464, С. 116479 - 116479

Опубликована: Янв. 15, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Past hydroclimate extremes in Europe driven by Atlantic jet stream and recurrent weather patterns

Nature Geoscience, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 18(3), С. 246 - 253

Опубликована: Фев. 27, 2025

Abstract The jet stream over the Atlantic–European sector is relevant for weather and climate in Europe. It generates temperature extremes steers moisture flood-propelling systems to Europe or facilitates development of atmospheric blocks, which can lead drought. Ongoing change may alter characteristics, affecting extremes. However, little known about past interannual-to-decadal variability stream. Here we analyse strength, tilt latitude from 1421 2023 an ensemble monthly daily reconstructions fields. We compare these indices with blocking frequency cyclonic activity data drought flood Summer enhanced Central periods a poleward-shifted jet. An equatorward-shifted associated decreased leads frequent floods Western Alps, particularly winter. Recurrent patterns causing often characterize entire season, such that association between peak discharge seen on seasonal even annual scales. Jet strength are significantly influenced by volcanic eruptions. Our 600-year perspective shows recent changes within cannot be drivers increasing frequency.

Язык: Английский

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