Flood vulnerability assessment in the flood prone area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12

Опубликована: Янв. 19, 2024

Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, causing extensive damage to human lives, property, and environment. Pakistan is susceptible calamities, such as floods, resulting in millions of people being impacted yearly. It has been demonstrated that flood severity rising may continue escalate coming years because climate change-induced changes monsoon precipitation country. Given country’s exposure flooding, it essential assess vulnerability floods prepare for mitigate their impact Pakistan. This study provides a new conceptual framework assessing risk Charsadda, flood-prone district evaluates settlements based on four indicators: population density, average gross domestic product (GDP) land, distance between rivers, land use cover (LULC). The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique was integrated with geographical information system (GIS) level area. results reveal higher degree region. spatial pattern vulnerable areas reveals significant connection high-risk densely populated during different seasons. further more than 60% area arable highly flood. land-use setup show high extremely values normalized threshold 0.3–0.4, respectively. an in-depth comprehensive analysis chosen indicators, evaluation methods, results, making this valuable contribution field assessment. findings also include thematic maps related stakeholders effective management

Язык: Английский

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Increasing monsoon precipitation extremes in relation to large-scale climatic patterns in Pakistan

Atmospheric Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 309, С. 107592 - 107592

Опубликована: Июль 20, 2024

Язык: Английский

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An increasing trend in daily monsoon precipitation extreme indices over Pakistan and its relationship with atmospheric circulations

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 11

Опубликована: Сен. 8, 2023

This study assessed spatiotemporal trends in daily monsoon precipitation extremes at seasonal and sub-seasonal scales (June, July, August, September) their links with atmospheric circulations over Pakistan. The used observed data from fifty in-situ stations reanalysis products the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) National Centers Environmental Prediction/the Center Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) during 1981–2018. A suite of seven extreme indices non-parametric statistical techniques were to infer frequency intensity indices. An increase overall was evident, a maximum tendency country’s northwestern (z-score=>2.5), central, eastern (z-score > 4) monsoon-dominant parts. northern southwestern parts country exhibited slight decrease <–2) intensity. Sen’s Slope estimator (SSE) shows an western (0.20 days) indicating shift maxima precipitation. regional wet days (R1 mm) higher values mMK (3.71) SSE (0.3) region 2 Similar results moderate are evident except regions 1 3. 1-day increased 3 (mMK: 1.39, SSE: 2.32). extremely (R99p TOT) has all 1. temporal mutations showed dynamic changes, clearly reflecting historical events. negatively correlated altitude (R = −0.00039). probability density function (PDF) significant June September probabilistic positive July August. intensified mid-latitude westerlies subtropical zonal easterlies teleconnections, strengthening trough, land-ocean thermal contrast potential drivers increasing trend extremes. current could serve as benchmark future researchers policymakers devise effective mitigation strategies sustainable development.

Язык: Английский

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Augmented human thermal discomfort in urban centers of the Arabian Peninsula

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Фев. 17, 2024

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change has amplified human thermal discomfort in urban environments. Despite the considerable risks posed to public health, there is a lack of comprehensive research, evaluating spatiotemporal changes and its characteristics hot-hyper arid regions, such as Arabian Peninsula (AP). The current study analyzes categories their AP, using newly developed high-resolution gridded ERA5-HEAT (Human thErmAl comforT) dataset for period 1979–2022. In addition, assesses interplay between Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices period. results reveal significant increase characteristics, with higher spatial variability AP region. major centers southwestern, central, southeastern parts have experienced increases (0.4–0.8 °C), frequency intensity stress during temporal distribution demonstrates linear UTCI frequencies intensities, particularly from 1998 onward, signifying transition towards hotter characterized by frequent, intense, prolonged heat conditions. Moreover, ENSO exhibit dipole pattern correlation positive (negative) southwestern (eastern parts) AP. study’s findings suggest that policymakers planners need prioritize health well-being AP’s areas, especially vulnerable groups, implementing adaptation mitigation strategies, carefully designing future cities mitigate effects stress.

Язык: Английский

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Exploring trends and variability of climate change indices in the agro‐ecological zones of Pakistan and their driving mechanisms

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 44(10), С. 3589 - 3612

Опубликована: Июль 5, 2024

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change induced weather and extremes have led to frequent heat waves, droughts floods threatening water resources food security for an agricultural country like Pakistan. Despite their significance, the trends variability of extreme temperature precipitation indices associated large‐scale drivers in agro‐ecological zones (AEZs) Pakistan remain unknown need urgent attention because abrupt change. The present study documents spatiotemporal variations together with elevation‐dependent over various AEZs period 42 years (1979–2020). Nonparametric Mann–Kendall (MK) Sen's slope (SS) estimator tests been employed trend estimation. Results indicated linearly increasing (warming) statistically significant Tmean, TNx, WSDI TR20 whereas decreasing (cooling) cool nights (−1.73 days·decade −1 ) cold spells (−1.28 ). spatial distribution depicts robust warming southwestern central while cooling northern zones. Regarding extremes, all shown (wetter) a increase PRCPTOT RX5day. stations subhumid received more compared other Elevation‐dependent exhibited positive (negative) relationship (warm) tails. Most weak, but association elevation except SDII. weakening South Asian subtropical upper‐level jet by high‐pressure system northeast resulted amplified land surface temperatures. However, patterns zonal winds indicate trough Pakistan's southern parts, warmer sea‐surface temperature, low sea‐level pressure easterly anomalies, favour moisture transport outcomes will be useful addressing climate‐induced disasters occurring

Язык: Английский

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Evaluation and Projection of Temperatures Over Pakistan: Insights from the Downscaled NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Models

Earth Systems and Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 15, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Flood risk assessment in the Swat river catchment through GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 13

Опубликована: Апрель 9, 2025

Extreme climatic events, such as floods, are becoming increasingly frequent and severe worldwide, including in Pakistan. The Swat River Catchment (SRC), located the eastern Hindukush region of Pakistan, is highly susceptible to flooding due its unique geographical conditions. However, despite region’s susceptibility, comprehensive flood risk assessments that integrate hazard, vulnerability, exposure components remain limited. To address this gap, study assesses SRC using 22 indicators distributed across three core dimensions risk: exposure. Flood hazard was modeled 11 indicators, broadly categorized into environmental, hydrological, aspects, while vulnerability evaluated through socio-economic factors, proximity, land use characteristics. Exposure analyzed based on population metrics critical infrastructure. All data were converted thematic layers GIS, systematically weighted Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) combined produce maps respectively. These then integrated a equation generate final map. results reveal 31% area high zone, 27% moderate zones, 23% low risk, 19% safe areas. validated Area Under Curve (AUC) technique, yielding value 0.92, which indicates reliability. By presenting first assessment for SRC, provides valuable insights flood-prone areas distribution. highlight urgent need enhanced management, especially urban developed methodology serves tool disaster management authorities planners, helping them make risk-informed decisions, allocate resources efficiently, implement targeted mitigation strategies.

Язык: Английский

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Ocean–atmosphere circulation coherences associated with temperature increase in Pakistan

Environmental Research Letters, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 18(9), С. 094028 - 094028

Опубликована: Авг. 9, 2023

Abstract In recent decades, temperature variations have significantly affected the ecosystem and human livelihood in Pakistan. The wavelet analysis is employed to identify associations between regional change global teleconnections, i.e. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic (AO), North (NAO), El Niño–Southern (ENSO), Pacific Decadal (PDO), Tropical Northern Index (TNA), Pacific/North American (PNA), Pattern (NP), Western (WP), Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP). This paper first uses monotonic modified Mann–Kendall Sen’s slope estimator compute changes Pakistan its homogenous climatic regions during 1960–2020. It found that has increased at 0.23 °C dec −1 last 62 years, which also higher than average increase. increase more evident region IV V spring 0.63 0.43 respectively, followed by summer autumn. Temperature sub-regions are mainly associated with NP, WP WHWP mean significant coherences. Overall, influenced multiple interactions of these combinations indicate integrated influence teleconnections can better explain changes. broader over NP + WHWP, Pacific-based (ENSO, PDO, PNA), Atlantic-based (AMO, AO, NAO) indices as revealed coherences 0.82, 0.82 0.72 respectively. Annually, AMO, TNA showed correlation magnitudes 0.44, 0.42 0.20 indicating modulation effect on combined impacts from various represent a considerable advancement accuracy country. These findings implications for policymakers terms planning policies light climate well atmospheric circulation variability.

Язык: Английский

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Population Exposure Changes to Mean and Extreme Climate Events Over Pakistan and Associated Mechanisms

GeoHealth, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 7(10)

Опубликована: Окт. 1, 2023

The increasing prevalence of warmer trends and climate extremes exacerbate the population's exposure to urban settlements. This work investigated population changes mean extreme events in different Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) Pakistan associated mechanisms (1979-2020). Spatiotemporal temperatures revealed significant warming mainly over northern, northeastern, southern AEZs. In contrast, mean-to-extreme precipitation showed non-uniform patterns with a increase northeast Population (extreme) temperature increased two-fold during 2000-2020. AEZs settlements (i.e., Indus Delta, Northern Irrigated Plain, Barani/Rainfall) show maximum about 70-100 × 106 (person-days) reference period (1979-1999), which increases 140-200 person-days recent (2000-2020). addition, highest days also 40-200 2000-2020 than 1979-1999 (20-100 106) person-days. Relative are large (60%-90%) for across Pakistan, justifying spatial these zones. Overall, observed primarily attributed effect (50%) most except Plain R10 R20 events, where interaction takes lead. rapidly major could be more vulnerable due rapid urbanization growth near future.

Язык: Английский

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Spatiotemporal Runoff Analysis and Associated Influencing Factors in Chitral Basin, Pakistan

Water, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 15(12), С. 2175 - 2175

Опубликована: Июнь 9, 2023

Global warming has accelerated climate and weather changes, impacting the regional water cycle. This study assesses temporal trends of seasonal annual runoff in Chitral River Basin (CRB) its responses to climatic factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)) oceanic indices at large scales El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal (PDO)). The non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Sequential test (SQMK) Sen Slope (SS) is used evaluate magnitude. In contrast, wavelet analysis assess coherence. general, precipitation increases winter, summer autumn, whereas it decreases spring. temperature increased significantly winter spring, while a significant increase was evident. Annual NDVI increased, Water (NDWI) Snow (NDSI) decreased. Generally, inter-annual coherences with environmental factors, coherence NDVI. Monthly positive NDVI, negative correlation NDWI, NDSI. ENSO, IOD PDO show runoff. MWC findings indicate that prevailed interannual signals local Ocean, interdecadal are obvious Atlantic Ocean. results have implications for decision-makers seeking enhance resource planning, disaster prevention, mitigation, especially global intensification human activities influence hydroclimatic changes high altitudes.

Язык: Английский

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