Environmental Research, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 159, С. 24 - 38
Опубликована: Июль 29, 2017
Язык: Английский
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 36, С. 1 - 10
Опубликована: Сен. 25, 2018
Algal blooms increasingly threaten lake and reservoir water quality at the global scale, caused by ongoing climate change nutrient loading. To anticipate these algal blooms, models to project future worldwide are required. Here we present state-of-the-art in projection modelling explore requirements of an ideal model. Based on this, identify current challenges opportunities for such model development. Since most building blocks present, foresee that any earth can be developed near future. Finally, think bloom a scale will provide valuable contribution policymaking, particular with respect SDG 6 (clean sanitation).
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
94
Environmental Modelling & Software, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 144, С. 105143 - 105143
Опубликована: Июль 16, 2021
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
62
Sustainability, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 16(11), С. 4449 - 4449
Опубликована: Май 24, 2024
Marine ecosystems are becoming increasingly vulnerable to cumulative anthropogenic effects and pressures. Therefore, various methodological approaches tools have been designed apply impact appraisal schemes better assess the dynamics interactions among pressures affecting marine ecosystems. This study aims Spatial Cumulative Assessment of Impact Risk for Management (SCAIRM) tool Black Sea coastal waters considering human activities, pressures, on different ecosystem components coupled with one management scenario development actual new emerging sectors. According SCAIRM, primary pressure was identified as introducing or spreading non-indigenous species from shipping. Additionally, when impact, activities related defense flood protection, particularly beach nourishment works, were found highest impact. is due scores associated physical loss permanent alteration removal seabed substrates, temporary reversible disturbances seabed. The indicated that after shipping, oil gas exploitation anticipated become second-highest risk sector additional in Romanian Sea. increased military war Ukraine present escalating risks must be considered EBM strategies. results possible direct toward achieving sustainability, biodiversity ecosystem’s integrity.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
11
Biogeosciences, Год журнала: 2016, Номер 13(7), С. 2011 - 2028
Опубликована: Апрель 6, 2016
Abstract. As three-dimensional (3-D) aquatic ecosystem models are used more frequently for operational water quality forecasts and ecological management decisions, it is important to understand the relative strengths limitations of existing 3-D varying spatial resolution biogeochemical complexity. To this end, 2-year simulations Chesapeake Bay from eight hydrodynamic-oxygen have been statistically compared each other historical monitoring data. Results show that although difficulty resolving variables typically thought be main drivers dissolved oxygen variability (stratification, nutrients, chlorophyll), all significant skill in reproducing mean seasonal oxygen. In addition, with constant net respiration rates independent nutrient supply temperature reproduced observed concentrations about as well much complex, nutrient-dependent models. This finding has ramifications short-term hypoxia Bay, which may possible very simple parameterizations, contrast complex full required scenario-based forecasting. However, simulating correct density mixed layer depths, ecologically terms habitat compression. Observations indicate a stronger correlation between depths top pycnocline oxycline than their maximum vertical gradients, highlighting importance mixing depth defining region aerobic when low-oxygen bottom waters present. Improvement will thus depend on ability reproduce physically driven surface precise magnitude gradient.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
81
Environmental Management, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 59(4), С. 619 - 634
Опубликована: Янв. 2, 2017
Submerged macrophytes play an important role in maintaining good water quality shallow lakes. Yet extensive stands easily interfere with various services provided by these lakes, and harvesting is increasingly applied as a management measure. Because lakes may possess alternative stable states over wide range of environmental conditions, designing successful mowing strategy challenging, given the stabilizing clear state. In this study, integrated ecosystem model PCLake used to explore consequences mowing, terms reducing nuisance stability, for external nutrient loadings, intensities timings. Elodea species. Additionally, we use estimate how much phosphorus removed harvested biomass, evaluate long-term effect harvesting. Our indicates that can temporarily reduce caused submerged plants first weeks after cutting, particularly when loading fairly low. The risk instigating regime shift be tempered halfway growing season resilience system highest, our showed. Up half entering potentially along biomass. As result, prolonged prevent oligo-to mesotrophic lake from becoming eutrophic certain extent, shows critical loading, where shifts turbid phytoplankton-dominated state, slightly increased.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
75
Agricultural Water Management, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 212, С. 48 - 59
Опубликована: Сен. 4, 2018
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
71
Ecological Modelling, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 396, С. 23 - 32
Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2019
The lake ecosystem model PCLake is a process-based that was developed to simulate water quality based on ecological interactions in shallow, non-stratifying lakes the temperate climate zone. Here we present PCLake+, which extends cover wide range of freshwater differ stratification regime and climate-related processes. To this end, extended with hypolimnion layer can be invoked configured by forcing functions or simple built-in empirical relationships impose stratification. Further adjustments original have been made respect calculation 1) light irradiation column, 2) evaporation processes 3) phenology macrophytes. simulation output PCLake+ for different types complies well generally accepted limnological knowledge, thus holding promise future contributions theory application around globe.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
70
Environmental Science & Technology, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 53(23), С. 13822 - 13831
Опубликована: Ноя. 4, 2019
The discovery of microplastic (MP) being present in freshwaters has stimulated research on the impacts MP freshwater organisms. To date, focused primary effects, leaving questions with respect to secondary effects at level food webs unanswered. Here, we use a theoretical modeling approach investigate hypothesis that imposes negative shallow lake webs. We find increasing levels have potential affect critical phosphorus loading (CPL), which is defined as threshold for regime shifts between clear and turbid states water column. possible occurrence catastrophic cascades due pollution predominantly driven by zooplankton. explore web scenario analysis show current concentrations are likely be negligible. However, rate production, 20-40% reduction CPL would occur end this century, suggesting loss resilience lakes subject abrupt changes under lower nutrient loading.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
64
The Science of The Total Environment, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 679, С. 248 - 259
Опубликована: Май 1, 2019
Many aquatic ecosystems have deteriorated due to human activities and their restoration is often troublesome. It proposed here that the success of lakes critically depends on hitherto largely neglected spatial heterogeneity in nutrient loading hydrology. A modelling approach used study this hypothesis by considering four lake types with contrasting (point versus diffuse) hydrology (seepage drainage). By comparing longterm effect common measures (nutrient load reduction, flushing or biomanipulation) these types, we found through reduction effective all cases. In contrast, biomanipulation only works seepage diffuse inputs, while will even be counterproductive point sources. The main conclusion presented analysis a priori assessment caused essential for successful ecosystems.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
59
Marine Ecology Progress Series, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 680, С. 7 - 13
Опубликована: Ноя. 30, 2020
The aphorism, ‘All models are wrong, but some useful’, originally referred to statistical models, is now used for scientific in general. When presenting results from a marine simulation model, this statement effectively stops discussions about the quality of as there always another observation mismatch, and thereby confirmation why model cannot be trusted. It common that observations less challenged often viewed ‘gold standard’ judging whereas proper interpretations true value overlooked. Models not perfect, many examples where improperly provide misleading answers with great confidence, what extent does an represent truth? precision observational gear may high, representativeness? interpretation simply time coded computer language rather formed by individual observer. We submit it would more productive initiate process norm joined strengthen both. In end, neither method goal, both useful tools disclosing truth. Biased views on either or modeling approaches limit us achieving goal.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
57