Climate change will drive novel cross-species viral transmission

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2020, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 25, 2020

Abstract At least 10,000 species of mammal virus are estimated to have the potential spread in human populations, but vast majority currently circulating wildlife, largely undescribed and undetected by disease outbreak surveillance 1–3 . In addition, changing climate land use already driving geographic range shifts producing novel assemblages opportunities for viral sharing between previously isolated 4, 5 some cases, this will inevitably facilitate spillover into humans 6, 7 —a possible mechanistic link global environmental change emerging zoonotic 8 Here, we map hotspots sharing, using a phylogeographic model mammal-virus network, projections 3,139 under scenarios year 2070. Range-shifting predicted aggregate at high elevations, biodiversity hotspots, areas population density Asia Africa, cross-species transmission their viruses an 4,000 times. Counter expectations, holding warming 2°C within century does not reduce new due greater expansions— highlighting need invest even low-warming future. Most projected is driven diverse hyperreservoirs (rodents bats) large-bodied predators (carnivores). Because unique dispersal capacity, bats account likely share along evolutionary pathways that could future emergence humans. Our findings highlight urgent pair discovery efforts with surveys tracking species’ shifts, especially tropical countries harbor most zoonoses.

Язык: Английский

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Microclimate variability in alpine ecosystems as stepping stones for non‐native plant establishment above their current elevational limit

Ecography, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 41(6), С. 900 - 909

Опубликована: Июль 10, 2017

Alpine environments are currently relatively free from non‐native plant species, although their presence and abundance have recently been on the rise. It is however still unclear whether observed low invasion levels in these areas due to an inherent resistance of alpine zone invasions or exponential increase just a matter time. Using seed‐addition experiment north‐ south‐facing slopes (cf. microclimatic gradient) two mountains subarctic Sweden, we tested establishment six species at elevation above current distribution limits under experimentally enhanced anthropogenic pressures (disturbance, added nutrients increased propagule pressure). We found large variability cumulative growing degree days (GDD) (range = 500.77°C, SD 120.70°C) both physiographic (e.g. aspect) biophysical vegetation cover) features, latter being altered by experimental disturbance. Non‐native biomass production were positively correlated with GDD along studied gradient. However, even though north‐facing caught up that throughout season, was limited shorter season. On top this effect, all imposed factors success. The effect indicates potential for use warm microsites as stepping stones towards cold end Combined result suggests increasing risk ecosystems, such ecosystems likely be more common future will combine warming climate persistent pressures.

Язык: Английский

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Hiking trails as conduits for the spread of non-native species in mountain areas

Biological Invasions, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 22(3), С. 1121 - 1134

Опубликована: Дек. 4, 2019

Abstract Roadsides are major pathways of plant invasions in mountain regions. However, the increasing importance tourism may also turn hiking trails into conduits non-native spread to remote landscapes. Here, we evaluated such for invasion five protected areas southern central Chile. We therefore sampled native and species along 17 adjacent undisturbed vegetation. analyzed whether number cover local assemblages is related distance trail a additional variables that characterize abiotic biotic environment as well usage trail. found at higher elevations subset lowland source pool their decreases with elevation trails, although this latter variable only explained 4–8% variation data. In addition, richness were positively correlated signs livestock presence but negatively intact forest These results suggest that, least region studied, have indeed fostered elevations, less efficiently than roadsides. As corollary, appropriate planning management could become increasingly important control mountains world which warming where visitation recreational use mountainous expected increase.

Язык: Английский

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Functional diversity along elevational gradients in the high altitude vegetation of the western Himalaya

Biodiversity and Conservation, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 28(8-9), С. 1977 - 1996

Опубликована: Март 7, 2019

Язык: Английский

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Identifying climate-sensitive infectious diseases in animals and humans in Northern regions

Acta veterinaria Scandinavica, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 61(1)

Опубликована: Ноя. 14, 2019

Abstract Background General knowledge on climate change effects and adaptation strategies has increased significantly in recent years. However, there is still a substantial information gap regarding the influence of infectious diseases how these should be identified. From One Health perspective, zoonotic infections are particular concern. The Northern regions changing faster than global average. This study sought to identify climate-sensitive (CSIs) relevance for humans and/or animals living regions. Inclusion criteria CSIs were constructed using expert assessments. Based principles, 37 potential relevant A systematic literature search was performed three databases an explicit stepwise approach determine whether supports selection CSIs. Results In total, 1275 nominated abstracts read categorised predefined criteria. showed that arthropod vector-borne recognised as having expand their distribution towards latitudes tick-borne encephalitis borreliosis, midge-borne bluetongue parasitic infection fasciolosis can classified climate-sensitive. Many other considered affected by extreme weather events, but could not clearly An additional comparing awareness influences between 1997–2006 2007–2016 increase number papers mentioning change. Conclusions four identified this targeted surveillance programme It evident affect epidemiology geographical range many diseases, difficulties identifying CSIs, most likely because factors may equal or greater importance. climate-ecological dynamics constantly under change, therefore fall out definition over time. There increasing

Язык: Английский

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