Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Species Distribution and Conservation Strategies of Picea neoveitchii using MaxEnt Modeling DOI Creative Commons

Ninghan Xue,

Kaiyuan Li, Kexin Chen

и другие.

Research Square (Research Square), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Авг. 20, 2024

Abstract Picea neoveitchii Mast., an endemic and rare species in China, classified as Critically Endangered (CR) the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, holds significant research value due to its unique biological characteristics, which are crucial for plant taxonomy conservation genus Picea. Despite excellent timber quality high ornamental value, it has not been widely used well protected. In this scientific investigation, MaxEnt modeling was employed assess optimal distribution range, influential variables, current posture P. neoveitchii, along with projections into potential future climatic contexts. This approach provides a rigorous foundation upon strategies can be formulated refined. During process, we enhanced prediction accuracy model by conducting field surveys on distribution, eliminating redundant data, removing some environmental data correlation coefficients. The results indicate that Minimum Temperature Coldest Month, Annual Precipitation, Seasonality, Altitude key factors influencing neoveitchii. Under different climate scenarios, suitable area shifts northwestward. SSP2-4.5、ssp5-5.8 scenario, decreases all periods. SSP1-2.6 decreases, except period from 2080 2100, sightly increases. proportion habitat within natural reserves These findings great significance provide valuable references forest management protection efforts.

Язык: Английский

Assessing current and future potential habitat of Vatica lanceaefolia (Roxb.) Blume, a critically endangered tree species of Northeastern India DOI
Anubhav Bhuyan,

Suhasini Hazarika,

Shilpa Baidya

и другие.

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 156(2)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1
Ecological modeling of climate change effects on priority species of the Liliaceae family in Iran DOI

Sh. Nazemi Ardakani,

Razieh Rahimi, Ahmad Reza Mehrabian

и другие.

International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Фев. 9, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1
Remote sensing of biodiversity and climate change: adaptation and mitigation prospective DOI
Mukunda Dev Behera, Swapna Mahanand, Poonam Tripathi

и другие.

Elsevier eBooks, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 171 - 182

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Predicting habitat suitability of Illicium griffithii under climate change scenarios using an ensemble modeling approach DOI Creative Commons
Anubhav Bhuyan,

Amal Bawri,

Bhrigu Prasad Saikia

и другие.

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Март 20, 2025

Climate change is the most significant threat to global biodiversity, risking extinction for many species due their limited adaptability rapidly changing environmental conditions, such as temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Illicium griffithii, an endangered tree with ecological medicinal value, remains understudied, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh. The aim of study identify key variables influencing current distribution I. griffithii predict potential under future climatic scenarios (SSP245 SSP585). We used ensemble modeling approach that integrates five models (SDMs). After multicollinearity test, we utilized fifteen including bioclimatic variables, soil properties, topographical evapotranspiration griffithii. revealed predominantly influenced by isothermality, nitrogen content at 0–5 cm depth, clay seasonality a total contribution rate 42.6%. model performed robustly found be excellent performance based on AUC 0.94 TSS 0.83. highly suitable area spans 722.72 km2 scenario, primarily located West Kameng, Tawang, East Kameng districts. stands out largest high-suitability area, which covers 592.83 contributing substantial 82.03% area. However, SSP585 scenario (2041–2060), projections reveal concerning decline areas. expected shrink over 5.05%, decreasing from 686.25 km2. results have highlighted vulnerability scenario. Hence, forest managers should prioritize conserving habitats districts Pradesh implementing habitat restoration, assisted migration ex situ conservation strategies can mitigate impacts.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Current and Future Spatial Distribution of the Aedes aegypti in Peru Based on Topoclimatic Analysis and Climate Change Scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Alex J. Vergara, Sivmny V. Valqui-Reina, Dennis Cieza-Tarrillo

и другие.

Insects, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(5), С. 487 - 487

Опубликована: Май 2, 2025

Dengue, a febrile disease that has caused epidemics and deaths in South America, especially Peru, is vectored by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Despite seriousness of dengue fever, expanding range Ae. aegypti, future distributions vector context climate change have not yet been clearly determined. Expanding on previous findings, our study employed bioclimatic topographic variables to model both present distribution mosquito using Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The results indicate 10.23% (132,053.96 km2) 23.65% (305,253.82 Peru’s surface area possess regions with high moderate probabilities, respectively, predominantly located departments San Martín, Piura, Loreto, Lambayeque, Cajamarca, Amazonas, Cusco. Moreover, based projected scenarios, it anticipated areas probability will undergo expansion; specifically, extent these estimated increase 4.47% 2.99% years 2070 2100, under SSP2-4.5 HadGEM-GC31-LL model. Given increasing epidemic Peru recent years, seeks identify tools for effectively addressing this pressing public health concern. Consequently, research serves as foundational framework assessing highest likelihood response second half 21st century.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Predicting climate change impacts on distribution and conservation of critically endangered Picea neoveitchii using MaxEnt DOI Creative Commons

Ninghan Xue,

Kaiyuan Li, Kexin Chen

и другие.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7

Опубликована: Дек. 11, 2024

Picea neoveitchii Mast., an endemic and rare species in China, classified as Critically Endangered (CR) the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, possesses significant research value due to its unique biological characteristics that contribute plant taxonomy conservation genus . Despite excellent timber quality high ornamental value, it has not been widely used well protected. This study employed MaxEnt modeling approach, incorporating field survey data on distribution collected online, along with climatic environmental sourced from IPCC reports climate databases. It assessed current future ranges, influential variables, status P. The results indicate Minimum Temperature Coldest Month, Annual Precipitation, Seasonality, Altitude are key factors influencing Across all scenarios, suitable habitat for consistently exhibits a trend shifting northwestwards. Under SSP2-4.5, SSP5-5.8 scenario, area decreases periods. SSP1-2.6 decreases, except period 2080 2,100, which sightly increases. Notably, proportion within natural reserves increased. To conserve , is necessary adopt in-situ ex-situ measures, germplasm resources through seed banking tissue culture, implement strict enclosure policies minimize human disturbance promote regeneration. These findings highlight need targeted measures address ongoing threat this species.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1
Biodiversity responses to climate change – a sustainable development perspective from India DOI Creative Commons
Mukunda Dev Behera, Anzar Ahmad Khuroo, Sharat Kumar Palita

и другие.

Biodiversity and Conservation, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 33(12), С. 3347 - 3353

Опубликована: Окт. 1, 2024

The papers presented in this special issue cover a wide range of topics including the impact climate change on Indian biodiversity through modelling approaches, resilience ecosystems to climate-induced shifts, and role remote sensing monitoring forest dynamics. This body research focuses various ecological systems, highlighting consequences providing actionable insights for conservation policy practice. By addressing data gaps, enhancing model precision, integrating technological advancements like GIS Earth Observation supports ongoing efforts conserve fragile ecosystems, such as Himalaya. Furthermore, studies synthesising collecting India's help understanding patterns their biotic abiotic drivers country's varied landscapes, which offer valuable perspectives sustainable development strategies. these diverse efforts, seeks advance our impacts foster resilient alignment with UN Sustainable Development Goals, particularly Goal 13 (Climate Action) 15 (Life Land).

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0
Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Species Distribution and Conservation Strategies of Picea neoveitchii using MaxEnt Modeling DOI Creative Commons

Ninghan Xue,

Kaiyuan Li, Kexin Chen

и другие.

Research Square (Research Square), Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Авг. 20, 2024

Abstract Picea neoveitchii Mast., an endemic and rare species in China, classified as Critically Endangered (CR) the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, holds significant research value due to its unique biological characteristics, which are crucial for plant taxonomy conservation genus Picea. Despite excellent timber quality high ornamental value, it has not been widely used well protected. In this scientific investigation, MaxEnt modeling was employed assess optimal distribution range, influential variables, current posture P. neoveitchii, along with projections into potential future climatic contexts. This approach provides a rigorous foundation upon strategies can be formulated refined. During process, we enhanced prediction accuracy model by conducting field surveys on distribution, eliminating redundant data, removing some environmental data correlation coefficients. The results indicate that Minimum Temperature Coldest Month, Annual Precipitation, Seasonality, Altitude key factors influencing neoveitchii. Under different climate scenarios, suitable area shifts northwestward. SSP2-4.5、ssp5-5.8 scenario, decreases all periods. SSP1-2.6 decreases, except period from 2080 2100, sightly increases. proportion habitat within natural reserves These findings great significance provide valuable references forest management protection efforts.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0