Research on Meteorological Drought Risk Prediction in the Daqing River Basin Based on HADGEM3-RA DOI Creative Commons
Mingcong Lv, Zhongmei Wang

Agriculture, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(10), С. 1781 - 1781

Опубликована: Окт. 10, 2024

Climate change is altering the water cycle and increasing drought risks in river basins. However, few studies account for minor droughts, despite their limited environmental impact. This study uses a pooling exclusion method to remove effects of droughts on identification events analyze characteristics Daqing River Basin (DRB) using HADGEM3-RA model within an Exposure–Resilience–Vulnerability (ERV) framework. It finds that duration number are sensitive rates. Drought severity also Pooling lead fewer but longer more severe droughts. Future DRB projected become severe, with durations averaging up 7 months from 0.2 4.3. peak expected exceed 1.28, development relief periods extending 0.68 0.69 months, respectively. Risk levels basin rise I II–IV, RCP4.5 scenarios showing higher than RCP8.5. Mountainous areas will face compared plains. Initially, risk factors increase then decline over time. These findings clarify dynamics changes under climate change. They can help developing climate-resilient strategies disaster reduction similar

Язык: Английский

Research on Meteorological Drought Risk Prediction in the Daqing River Basin Based on HADGEM3-RA DOI Creative Commons
Mingcong Lv, Zhongmei Wang

Agriculture, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(10), С. 1781 - 1781

Опубликована: Окт. 10, 2024

Climate change is altering the water cycle and increasing drought risks in river basins. However, few studies account for minor droughts, despite their limited environmental impact. This study uses a pooling exclusion method to remove effects of droughts on identification events analyze characteristics Daqing River Basin (DRB) using HADGEM3-RA model within an Exposure–Resilience–Vulnerability (ERV) framework. It finds that duration number are sensitive rates. Drought severity also Pooling lead fewer but longer more severe droughts. Future DRB projected become severe, with durations averaging up 7 months from 0.2 4.3. peak expected exceed 1.28, development relief periods extending 0.68 0.69 months, respectively. Risk levels basin rise I II–IV, RCP4.5 scenarios showing higher than RCP8.5. Mountainous areas will face compared plains. Initially, risk factors increase then decline over time. These findings clarify dynamics changes under climate change. They can help developing climate-resilient strategies disaster reduction similar

Язык: Английский

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