Seasonal prediction of rainfall variability for the West African Sudan-Sahel

Frontiers in Water, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 6

Опубликована: Янв. 10, 2025

The Sudan-Sahel region in West Africa is highly vulnerable to rainfall variability, which poses significant challenges agriculture and water resource management. This study provides an assessment of seasonal prediction models the region, focusing on African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (WARCOF, 1998–2023), latest generation forecasting system from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF SEAS5, 1981-2023), a novel atmospheric circulation-pattern-based logistic regression model (1981–2023). model, integrates key dynamics like near-surface wind anomalies, outperforms both WARCOF SEAS5 predicting interannual variability. While demonstrate some predictive skill, exhibit biases: has dry bias, displays wet biases. despite slight delivers more accurate categorical predictions offers greater reliability. An economic value analysis reveals that broader range positive outcomes, making it suitable decision-making across various cost-loss scenarios. By introducing this evaluating traditional techniques, lays groundwork reliable predictions.

Язык: Английский

Assessing the Impact of Climate Extreme Events and Conflicts on Internal Displacement in Burkina Faso

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown, С. 105470 - 105470

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2025

Язык: Английский

Capturing social sensing of farming activities for policymaking in fragile contexts

Journal of Rural Studies, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 117, С. 103638 - 103638

Опубликована: Апрель 8, 2025

Язык: Английский