Projecting future migration with Bayesian hierarchical gravity models of migration: an application to Africa DOI Creative Commons
Fabien Cottier

Frontiers in Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 6

Опубликована: Дек. 9, 2024

In this paper, I present and discuss a novel approach to parameterize gravity model of migration using Bayesian hierarchical models with random intercepts that are free vary by country origin, destination, directed origin-destination pairs. then utilize project transboundary flows between African countries the horizon 2050. To do so, use data on projected future crop yields water availability from ISIMIP2b scenarios in combination projections economic demographic trends Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The results indicate over period 2010–2050 8 17 millions people migrate internationally continent. Yet, only small portion these migrants will be induced move because climate change. contrary, comparisons SSPs suggests development have far larger impact level international continent than

Язык: Английский

Climate Change and Human Mobility: Considering Context, Mechanisms, and Selectivity DOI Creative Commons
Filiz Garip,

Christine M. Reed

Population and Development Review, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 27, 2025

Abstract Climate change is projected to increase human mobility. Research links climate stressors, such as warming temperatures, severe weather events, and rising sea levels, migration within between countries in many regions of the world. This paper reviews this new frontier for research charts directions future work. Understanding mobility, we argue, requires considering local context identify mechanisms (what impacts) selectivity (who responds). needs draw more on existing theory deduce patterns under alternative drivers mobility extend by how those shift shocks. also generalize from diverse findings documenting which are most common contexts.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0

Spatial assessment of current and future migration in response to climate risks in Ghana and Nigeria DOI Creative Commons
Alina Schürmann, Mike Teucher, Janina Kleemann

и другие.

Frontiers in Climate, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 7

Опубликована: Фев. 26, 2025

West Africa’s vulnerability to climate change is influenced by a complex interplay of socio-economic and environmental factors, exacerbated the region’s reliance on rain-fed agriculture. Climate variability, combined with rapid population growth, intensifies existing challenges. Migration has become key adaptive response these challenges, enabling communities diversify livelihoods enhance resilience. However, spatial patterns migration in risks are not fully understood. Thus, study evaluates applicability IPCC risk assessment framework map predict Ghana Nigeria, focus identifying areas potential out-migration. By integrating geospatial environmental, socio-economic, data, highlights that have higher likelihood for current baseline near future (2050). Future modeled using CMIP6 projections under RCP4.5 scenario, while providing insight into exposure. The results from compared actual migrant motivations, ground-level perspective drivers. In northern elevated hazard, vulnerability, exposure scores suggest due overall faced population. This pattern projected persist future. responses indicate factors often play secondary role, cited more frequently as findings highlight importance developing localized adaptation strategies address specific needs vulnerable areas. Additionally, management community resilience support sustainable pathways will be critical addressing climate-induced

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0

Putting migration in context: a review of how theory and methods shape climate-induced migration research findings DOI Creative Commons
Matthew D. Turner, Anika M. Rice, Emily M. Fornof

и другие.

Frontiers in Climate, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 7

Опубликована: Апрель 11, 2025

Widespread media reports that climate change is driving international migration have led to an upsurge in research seeking verify this phenomenon. In a methodological review of research, we identified close 3,000 studies referring climate-induced emigration from Mesoamerica and West Africa found only 102 empirically evaluate the causal link. We analyze inference implications these studies’ characteristics how are shaped by conceptual framing, data sources, region. Cluster analysis three groups based on framing–45 largely ignoring 33 fully engaging with context decisions vulnerabilities those exposed change, 24 between. Studies were also coded for they incorporated key features needed support claims. find framings, choice data, availability each study region strongly influence prevalence basic problems (e.g., mismatched spatial temporal scales, over-aggregation lumping destination types). A feature ‘decontextual’ over-reliance weather-migration correlation. These approaches neglect nexus surrounding migration, which involves many factors beyond attached weather but may co-vary certain instances. Such analyses prone spurious correlations fail address specifics who migrates face why.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0

The role of rural circular migration in shaping weather risk management for smallholder farmers in India, Nepal, and Bangladesh DOI
Divya Solomon, Asif Ishtiaque,

Arun Agarwal

и другие.

Global Environmental Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 89, С. 102937 - 102937

Опубликована: Окт. 3, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1

The climate-food-migration nexus: Critical perspectives DOI
Megan A. Carney

Global Food Security, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 42, С. 100786 - 100786

Опубликована: Июль 23, 2024

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0

Projecting future migration with Bayesian hierarchical gravity models of migration: an application to Africa DOI Creative Commons
Fabien Cottier

Frontiers in Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 6

Опубликована: Дек. 9, 2024

In this paper, I present and discuss a novel approach to parameterize gravity model of migration using Bayesian hierarchical models with random intercepts that are free vary by country origin, destination, directed origin-destination pairs. then utilize project transboundary flows between African countries the horizon 2050. To do so, use data on projected future crop yields water availability from ISIMIP2b scenarios in combination projections economic demographic trends Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The results indicate over period 2010–2050 8 17 millions people migrate internationally continent. Yet, only small portion these migrants will be induced move because climate change. contrary, comparisons SSPs suggests development have far larger impact level international continent than

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

0