Geomatics Natural Hazards and Risk, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Окт. 21, 2024

The ongoing trend of warming climate has made Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) a major cryospheric hazard worldwide, especially in the Himalayas. GLOFs Himalayan region are mostly caused by moraine-dammed proglacial lakes and ice-dammed lakes. These sporadic disasters have resulted significant loss life property. This study offers comprehensive analysis GLOF potential potentially dangerous lake (PDGL) Ladakh region. research explores threat from using multi-criteria advanced 2D hydrodynamic modeling approaches. mass balance response mother glacier, its flow dynamics, glacier-lake interactions were examined for past 22 years. findings show that over this period, PDGL had notable expansion 78.7%, accompanied recession 13.2% feeding glacier. glacier witnessed an average thickness ⁓7 m at rate 0.32 a−1 during period. average, lowest, maximum depth found to be 30.95, 14.30, 50.57 m, respectively velocity was estimated as 3.38 a−1. Because lake's rapid steep surrounding slopes, it classified high-hazard lake. risk downstream community assessed through HEC-RAS tool. discharge under worst-case scenario piping overtopping failures 3890.99 m3s−1 5111.39 m3s−1, respectively. area inundation calculated 4.74 5.38 km2 moderate scenarios expected flood velocities range 18.26 23.78 meters, scenarios. At several locations area, routed hydrographs representing propagation generated. wave would arrive first settlement 50 min, with peak 12.36 s−1. inundated includes critical infrastructure such bridges, residential houses, roads. To mitigate associated lake, more detailed on-site is highly recommended.

Язык: Английский