Hydrological Sciences Journal,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
unknown
Опубликована: Дек. 11, 2024
Flood
risk
assessment
is
an
important
aspect
of
flood
management,
and
we
combined
the
historical
disaster
statistics
method
with
index
system
to
assess
in
Hubei
Province,
China.
Our
methodology
includes
collecting
data
hazard
by
calculating
degree
trend
from
disasters
each
geographical
unit.
Meanwhile,
selected
relevant
indicators
such
as
elevation
difference,
distance
water
body,
gross
domestic
product
(GDP),
population,
proportion
construction
land
measure
susceptibility,
weights
for
these
are
determined
combining
analytic
hierarchy
process
(AHP)
entropy
weight
(AHP_entropy).
Then,
a
model
developed
integrating
susceptibility
at
high-resolution
grid
scale
1
km×1
km.
The
results
show
that
about
55.6%
area
Province
falls
into
medium-high
category.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
130(2)
Опубликована: Янв. 13, 2025
Abstract
The
concurrent
occurrence
of
temperature
and
precipitation
extremes,
known
as
compound
temperature‐precipitation
extreme
events
(CTPEEs),
leads
to
more
pronounced
consequences
for
human
society
ecosystems
than
when
these
extremes
occur
separately.
However,
such
have
not
been
sufficiently
studied,
especially
during
boreal
spring.
Spring
is
an
important
transition
season,
which
the
CTPEEs
plays
a
pivotal
role
in
plant
growth
revival
terrestrial
ecosystems.
This
study
investigates
spatio‐temporal
variation
characteristics
spring
China,
including
warm‐dry,
warm‐wet,
cold‐dry,
cold‐wet
combinations.
most
frequently,
followed
by
cold‐dry
events.
frequency
associated
with
warm
(cold)
shows
marked
interdecadal
increase
(decrease)
around
mid‐to‐late
1990s.
It
found
that
change
primarily
determined
extremes.
shift
coincides
phase
transitions
Atlantic
Multidecadal
Oscillation
(AMO)
Interdecadal
Pacific
(IPO).
After
1990s,
configuration
positive
AMO
negative
IPO
excited
atmospheric
wave
trains
over
mid‐high
latitudes,
causing
high‐pressure
anticyclonic
anomalies
East
Asia.
less
cloudiness,
allowing
downward
solar
radiation,
enhances
surface
warming
contributes
warm‐dry
warm‐wet
above
observations
are
confirmed
Pacemaker
experiments.
results
this
highlight
significant
contribution
internal
climate
variability
changes
at
regional
scale.
Land,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
14(1), С. 160 - 160
Опубликована: Янв. 14, 2025
Extreme
climate
events
have
become
more
frequent
under
global
warming,
significantly
affecting
vegetation
phenology
and
carbon
cycles
in
Central
Asia.
However,
the
mediating
effects
of
intensity
compound
drought
heat
(CDHEs)
moisture
(CMHEs)
on
grassland
their
trends
relative
contributions
to
over
time
remained
unclear.
Based
calculation
results
(CEs),
this
study
used
trend
analysis,
partial
least
squares
regression
structural
equation
modeling
(PLS-SEM),
ridge
analysis
investigate
effect
temporal
contribution
CEs
Asia,
magnitude
sensitivity
CEs.
This
revealed
that
start
season
(SOS)
was
advanced
by
0.4
d·a−1,
end
(EOS)
delayed
0.5
length
(LOS)
extended
0.8
d·a−1
1982–2022.
The
duration
CDHEs
(0−37
days)
greater
than
CMHEs
(0−9
direct
were
generally
negative,
except
for
positive
LOS.
indirect
temperature
precipitation
through
phenology.
consistently
CMHEs,
both
curves
showed
a
significant
upward
trend.
higher
its
at
0.79
(SOS),
1.18
(EOS),
0.72
(LOS).
Our
emphasize
Under
influence
LOS
will
further
lengthen
future.
Atmospheric Science Letters,
Год журнала:
2025,
Номер
26(2)
Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025
Abstract
Observational
evidence
has
shown
that
Compound
Wind
and
Precipitation
Extremes
(CWPEs)
can
cause
substantial
disruptions
to
natural
economic
systems
under
climate
change.
This
study
conducts
a
historical
assessment
future
projection
of
CWPEs
characteristics
in
the
vulnerable
region
Southeast
Asia
(SEA)
based
on
two
Shared
Socioeconomic
Pathways
(SSPs)
from
Scenario
Model
Intercomparison
Project
(ScenarioMIP)
Coupled
Phase
6
(CMIP6).
Results
reveal
northern
Philippines,
eastern
northwestern
coastal
areas
Indochina
Peninsula
have
experienced
most
frequent,
strongest
during
period
1985–2014.
SEA
is
projected
experience
frequency
increase
14.4%
(22.5%)
intensity
9.4%
(19.5%)
SSP2‐4.5
(SSP5‐8.5)
scenario
at
end
21st
century
(2070–2099).
Kalimantan
appears
replace
Philippines
as
affected
area,
particularly
high
emission
scenario.
In
addition,
changes
are
primarily
driven
by
precipitation,
with
average
contribution
precipitation
across
whole
62.8%
(70.4%)
For
uncertainties,
model
uncertainty
decreases
over
time
(from
73.9%
42.7%),
while
increases
20.3%
55.0%).
contrast,
for
wind
projections,
remains
dominant
factor
81.3%
87.6%)
little
The
present
reveals
sensitivity
global
warming
highlighting
risks
disaster
impact
such
regions.
Environmental Research Letters,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
19(7), С. 074066 - 074066
Опубликована: Июль 1, 2024
Abstract
In
boreal
summer
(July–August)
2022,
an
unprecedented
marine
heatwave
(MHW)
occurred
in
the
northwest
Pacific
Ocean
(NWP),
while
a
record-breaking
terrestrial
(THW)
hit
Yangtze
River
Basin
(YRB).
The
temperature
anomalies
caused
by
this
compound
MHW-THW
event
exceeded
climatology
2.5
standard
deviations
(SDs),
breaking
historical
record
for
nearly
100
years,
with
severe
impacts
on
ecosystems
and
social
economy.
To
investigate
underlying
causes,
we
explored
potential
roles
of
anthropogenic
forcing,
atmospheric
circulation,
‘triple-dip’
La
Niña
using
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
Phase
6
(CMIP6)
multi-model
simulations.
Results
indicate
that
2022-like
was
extremely
unlikely
to
happen
without
warming,
such
extreme
heatwaves
were
governed
climatic
mean
rather
than
changes
variability.
Notably,
anticyclone
circulation
patterns
associated
high-pressure
systems
(i.e.
western
North
subtropical
high
(WNPSH)
South
Asian
(SAH))
increase
probability
3.7
times.
However,
phase
has
no
significant
effect
occurrence
events.
We
further
estimate
will
become
7.5
11.4
times
more
likely
under
SSP3-7.0
scenario
middle
end
21st
century,
respectively.
This
study
demonstrates
contribution
climate
change
natural
variability
events
highlights
urgent
need
build
mitigation
strategies
