Limit hypersurface state of the art Gaidai multivariate risk evaluation approach for offshore Jacket

Mechanics Based Design of Structures and Machines, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown, С. 1 - 16

Опубликована: Июль 16, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Wind turbine gearbox reliability verification by multivariate Gaidai reliability method

Results in Engineering, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 23, С. 102689 - 102689

Опубликована: Авг. 8, 2024

Reliability research is essential since WT (Wind turbines) are built to endure high wind and wave-induced stresses. Novel multivariate 2D (bivariate) reliability methods presented in this investigation being conceived by authors assist designers accurately assessment of crucial stressors, acting inside key mechanical parts, such as gearbox drivetrain. Current study made use the recently created modified Weibull-type approach. Since statistical analysis takes into consideration cross-correlations between various system components, it more suited for design than univariate analysis. To cross-validate 10-MW semi-submersible type FWT (i.e., Floating Wind Turbine) failure or damage probability, forecasted Gaidai methodology, current employed Weibull Typical load types that FWTs related parts prone, include longitudinal, bending, twisting, cyclic Stochastic nature environmental loads, on terms windspeed, direction, shear, vorticity may cause excessive nonlinear structural dynamic effects, hence components like drivetrain necessary. In dynamic, structural, aerodynamic, control aspects had been modeled, using advanced numerical techniques – dynamics has modeled utilizing SIMPACK (Multibody Simulation Method) software. risk approach provided a reliable evaluation coupled drivetrain's dynamics, given return periods interest. Weakness bivariate highlighted, comprehensive solution form novel method.

Язык: Английский

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Multivariate ocean waves dynamics in North Sea and Norwegian Sea by Gaidai reliability method

Energy Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12, С. 2346 - 2355

Опубликована: Авг. 23, 2024

Current study presents state-of-the-art approach for evaluating spatiotemporal multivariate environmental risks, especially suitable complex systems that have been either numerically simulated or physically observed. Advocated methodology provides accurate hazard risk forecasts, based on real-time in situ data. Design of offshore structures requires assessment – and naval operations require both short- long-term reliability analyses. Contemporary evaluation techniques often struggle with raw timeseries data due to intrinsic multidimensionality nonlinear interconnections among critical system's dimensions/components. In the current effectiveness Gaidai method is illustrated by utilizing significant wave heights dataset, measured within two zones: Heidrun Troll Norwegian oil fields. Analyzing waves being particularly challenging their complexity, high nonlinearity, multidimensionality, yet dynamic inter-correlations. Global warming several factors, affecting ocean sea heights. For naval, marine operating harsh weather conditions, robust methods crucial design safe operations. aims validate benchmark methodology, enabling extraction. allows efficient global damages, failures risks a wide range energy systems. Primary advantage presented lies its ability treat practically unlimited number dimensions, while existing mostly limited univariate bivariate

Язык: Английский

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Applying the multivariate Gaidai reliability method in combination with an efficient deconvolution scheme to prediction of extreme ocean wave heights

Marine Systems & Ocean Technology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 19(1-2), С. 165 - 178

Опубликована: Авг. 9, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Generic COVID-19 epidemic forecast for Estonia by Gaidai multivariate reliability method

Franklin Open, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 6, С. 100075 - 100075

Опубликована: Фев. 13, 2024

This study aims at accurate spatiotemporal assessment of future epidemic outbreak risks, occurring within any given return period, and relevant administrative region Estonia. Authors have recently developed novel statistical methodology, that can be applied directly to multivariate raw clinical datasets. Novel Gaidai reliability described in this study, being particularly appropriate for multi-regional environmental, biological public health systems. Advocated methodology has been sufficiently validated the recent studies, yielding reliable long-term risk forecasts outbreaks. COVID-19 (SARS-COV-2) daily recorded patient numbers were selected all impacted Estonia national regions. results conclude recommended approach may effectively utilize even limited datasets, latter useful a wide range bioinformatics applications. Confidence intervals estimated predicted epidemiological levels.

Язык: Английский

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Shuttle tanker operational reliability study by Gaidai multivariate risk assessment method, utilizing deconvolution scheme

Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 26, С. 101194 - 101194

Опубликована: Июль 1, 2024

FPSO (Floating Production, Storage and Offloading) or FLNG Liquefied Natural Gas) vessels produce store crude oil liquified natural gas before being transported by ST (Shuttle Tanker). Robust prediction of excessive mooring hawser stresses crucial for structural design operational safety. Offloading activities may result in line tensions, impacting environmental Current study employed ANSYS-AQWA software to simulate dynamics, subjected wind-wave hydrodynamic loads, given realistic in-situ conditions. State-of-the-art multi-dimensional risk assessment methodology, presented this work based on direct MC (Monte Carlo) simulations, however, it is equally applicable measured data. Advocated methodology effectively utilizes underlying dataset, offering accurate failure/damage assessment. aims benchmark recently developed multivariate Gaidai approach, allowing the straightforward yet efficient failure damage risks nonlinear dynamic offshore/naval system as a whole. Primary benefit proposed lies its multi-dimensionality, can encompass virtually infinite number system's dimensions/components, each having distinct physical dimension. In contrast, traditional reliability methods are usually limited maximum two-dimensional systems. Novel deconvolution extrapolation scheme offers additional advantage, non-parametrical nature, opposed existing parametric techniques.

Язык: Английский

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Panamax cargo-vessel excessive-roll dynamics based on novel deconvolution method

Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 77, С. 103676 - 103676

Опубликована: Июль 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Novel multivariate design concept for floating wind turbines by Gaidai multivariate reliability method and deconvolution scheme

Journal of low frequency noise, vibration and active control, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Авг. 22, 2024

Development of novel risk and reliability assessment methods is intended to support safer construction offshore structures, subjected environmental wave loads. Current study investigated 10-MW FWT (i.e., Floating Wind Turbine), operating under realistic conditions. While increasing safety, enhanced may eventually help reduce manufacturing maintenance costs. Excessive structural dynamics being usually caused by stressors, acting on system. Environmental loads resulting from ambient wind motions are typical for structures. work advocates a methodology that allows reliable forecasting failure/damage risks, arising excessive dynamics. Recently developed Gaidai multivariate along with state-of-the-art deconvolution method had been employed. Unlike existing approaches such as Weibull-type, GP Generalized Pareto), POT Peaks Over the Threshold), etc., recommended does not rely any pre-assumed functional class, when extrapolating failure probability tail. Practical advantages suggested combined scheme over, is, 4-parameter Weibull’s extrapolation demonstrated. Suggested makes effective use even limited underlying datasets, enabling robust accurate projections multidimensional system risks. Overall methodological performance suggests numerically stable extreme forecasts bending moments might be obtained, utilizing methodology. Deconvolution approach more than parametric techniques, due its non-parametric nature.

Язык: Английский

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Global health risks due to the COVID-19 epidemic by Gaidai reliability method

Science Talks, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 10, С. 100366 - 100366

Опубликована: Май 23, 2024

Accurate estimation of epidemic outbreak risks at any given time horizon, and in national province interest for COVID-19 (novel coronavirus disease, SARS-COV-2), a contagious is practical importance. This study proposes novel bio health system's spatiotemporal reliability method, applicable to multi-regional systems. approach enables accurate future risks, suitable multiregional biological Daily numbers recorded patients two different countries were chosen this study. aimed benchmark state-of-the-art by extracting necessary system information from nationally observed patient numbers, while taking into account territorial mapping. Proper confidence bands have been estimated predicted probability levels. Suggested multivariate methodology may be used various public applications, based on available situ clinical survey data. analyzed epidemiological dynamics, total daily-recorded patients. It recommended the percentage infected patients, with respect local population tested. The suggested being general well latter task.

Язык: Английский

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ocean windspeeds forecast by Gaidai multivariate risk assessment method, utilizing deconvolution scheme

Results in Engineering, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 23, С. 102796 - 102796

Опубликована: Авг. 28, 2024

Язык: Английский

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