Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 7(6), С. 423 - 427

Опубликована: Май 15, 2017

Язык: Английский

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Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2019, Номер 9(1)

Опубликована: Ноя. 5, 2019

The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such occur in a warmer world however less well established, and combined effect changes frequency on total amount rain falling as much explored, spite potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations climate model simulations document strong increases frequencies occurring decadal timescales. Based find that from these intense almost doubles per degree warming, mainly due frequency, while are relatively weak, accordance previous studies. This shift towards stronger seen models, strength - hence rareness event. results, project if historical trends continue, most observed today likely double occurrence for each further Changes this magnitude dramatically than more widely communicated mean precipitation.

Язык: Английский

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Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2016, Номер 6(11), С. 986 - 991

Опубликована: Окт. 26, 2016

Язык: Английский

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Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 114(19), С. 4881 - 4886

Опубликована: Апрель 24, 2017

Significance Extreme climate events have increased in many regions. Efforts to test the influence of global warming on individual also increased, raising possibility operational, real-time, single-event attribution. We apply four attribution metrics variables at each available point a grid. find that historical has severity and probability hottest monthly daily more than 80% observed area driest wettest approximately half area. Our results suggest scientifically durable operational is possible but they highlight importance carefully diagnosing testing physical causes events.

Язык: Английский

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If Precipitation Extremes Are Increasing, Why Aren't Floods?

Water Resources Research, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 54(11), С. 8545 - 8551

Опубликована: Ноя. 1, 2018

Abstract Despite evidence of increasing precipitation extremes, corresponding for increases in flooding remains elusive. If anything, flood magnitudes are decreasing despite widespread claims by the climate community that if extremes increase, floods must also. In this commentary we suggest reasons why extreme rainfall not resulting flooding. Among possible mechanisms responsible, identify decreases antecedent soil moisture, storm extent, and snowmelt. We argue understanding link between changes is a grand challenge hydrologic deserving increased attention.

Язык: Английский

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Advances in understanding large‐scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 1472(1), С. 49 - 75

Опубликована: Апрель 4, 2020

Abstract Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by Earth's energy balance at ∼2–3%/°C. However, this rate is suppressed rapid adjustments response greenhouse gases absorbing aerosols that directly alter budget. Rapid forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, observational uncertainty can explain why observed responses currently difficult detect but expected emerge accelerate as increases aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation be smaller over land than ocean due limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated feedbacks affected adjustments. Thermodynamic fluxes amplify wet dry events, driving intensification extremes. The deviate a simple thermodynamic in‐storm larger‐scale feedback processes, while changes large‐scale dynamics catchment characteristics further modulate frequency flooding increases. Changes circulation radiative evolving surface temperature patterns capable dominating cycle some regions. Moreover, direct impact human activities through abstraction, irrigation, use change already significant component regional importance demand grows population.

Язык: Английский

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Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

Environmental Research Letters, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 12(12), С. 124009 - 124009

Опубликована: Дек. 1, 2017

During August 25–30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly Houston the surrounding area on 26–28. This resulted in extensive flooding with 80 fatalities large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: return period of highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy−1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 3dy−1) a current climate. Observations since 1880 region show clear positive trend intensity between 12% 22%, roughly two times increase moisture holding capacity atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation. would indicate that flux increased by both content stronger winds or updrafts driven heat condensation moisture. We also analysed rainfall three ensembles 25 km resolution models. The first shows 2 × CC scaling, second scaling third did not have realistic representation Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results 2017 event, we conclude global made about 15% (8%–19%) intense, equivalently such event (1.5–5) likely. analysis makes events along Coast are rise. And while fortifying fully withstand impact as may be economically feasible, it critical information regarding increasing risk general should part discussion future improvements Houston's flood protection system.

Язык: Английский

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Large increase in global storm runoff extremes driven by climate and anthropogenic changes

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2018, Номер 9(1)

Опубликована: Окт. 16, 2018

Abstract Weather extremes have widespread harmful impacts on ecosystems and human communities with more deaths economic losses from flash floods than any other severe weather-related hazards. Flash attributed to storm runoff are projected become frequent damaging globally due a warming climate anthropogenic changes, but previous studies not examined the response of these naturally anthropogenically driven changes in surface temperature atmospheric moisture content. Here we show that increase most regions at rates higher suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, which systematically close or exceed those precipitation over globe, accompanied large spatial decadal variability. These results suggest current may be underestimated, posing threats for ecosystem community resilience under future conditions.

Язык: Английский

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Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations

Nature, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 544(7651), С. 475 - 478

Опубликована: Апрель 1, 2017

Язык: Английский

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Future increases in extreme precipitation exceed observed scaling rates

Nature Climate Change, Год журнала: 2017, Номер 7(2), С. 128 - 132

Опубликована: Янв. 9, 2017

Язык: Английский

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