Multivariate Gaidai hazard assessment method in combination with deconvolution scheme to predict extreme wave heights

Results in Engineering, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 22, С. 102326 - 102326

Опубликована: Май 27, 2024

Current study advocates novel Gaidai hazards assessment methodology that may be utilized for excessive wave-heights spatiotemporal risk analysis, thus advancing climate change studies. being particularly suitable multivariate dynamic environmental ocean systems, have been MC (i.e., Monte Carlo) numerically simulated, either physically measured across a representative time period, resulting in synchronous quasi-ergodic timeseries. Offshore waves affect reliable production and operational safety of offshore marine structures. presents two reliability methods: first, state-of-the-art methodology, designed multi-dimensional to presented the current study; second, deconvolution extrapolation technique follow. Primary target accurate system's hazard assessment. Classic methods, dealing with timeseries not always possess advantages efficiently high dimensionality, along nonlinear cross-correlation patterns between various components. In-situ significant wave-height dataset, different areas, analyzed by means application advocated methodology. representing complex highly-nonlinear, cross-correlated system. Global also an important factor, affecting wave-heights. purpose had benchmark while utilizing underlying raw dataset. Methods put forth assessments large variety dimensional systems.

Язык: Английский

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Gaidai multivariate risk assessment method for cargo ship dynamics

Urban Planning and Transport Research, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12(1)

Опубликована: Март 11, 2024

Contemporary cargo vessel transport constitutes a vital part of the global trade and economy. Thus, it is primary engineering design importance to further develop more efficient novel risk analysis assessment methods for large ships. Classical methodsmay not always have advantages efficiently dealing with dynamic system's high dimensionality along cross-correlations between various critical dimensions. Current study benchmarks state-of-art Gaidai spatiotemporal structural method, suitable multivariate systems versus well-established bivariate method. As an example, this study, operating container has been selected. The hull had subjected deck panel stresses accelerations during cross-Atlantic sailing. Risks losing containers are caused by extreme dynamics being one concerns transport. methodology, advocated here, opens up new possibilities predicting efficiently, yet simply potential damage/failure risks nonstationary, nonlinear, ship systems, as whole. Note that method may be applied wide range complex marine offshore systems.

Язык: Английский

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Lifetime assessment of semi-submersible wind turbines by Gaidai risk evaluation method

Deleted Journal, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 19(1)

Опубликована: Июнь 22, 2024

Abstract As the global agenda turns more towards so-called challenge of climate change and lowering carbon emissions, research into green, renewable energy sources becoming nowadays popular. Offshore wind power, produced by FOWTs (i.e., Floating Wind Turbines), is one such substitute. It a significant industrial part contemporary offshore industry produces clean, electricity. Accurate operational lifetime assessment for an important technical safety issue, as environmental in situ loads can lead to fatigue damage well extreme structural dynamics, which cause damage. In this study, hydro aerodynamic loads, that act on FOWT, given actual local sea conditions have been numerically assessed, using FAST coupled nonlinear aero-hydro-servo-elastic software package. combines aerodynamics hydrodynamics models FOWTs, control electrical system dynamics models, along with enabling MC simulation real time. The tool enables analysis range FOWT configurations, including 2- or 3-bladed horizontal-axis rotor, pitch stall regulation, rigid teetering hub, upwind downwind rotors. relies advanced engineering models—derived from fundamental laws, however appropriate assumptions simplifications, supplemented where applicable experimental data. Recently developed Gaidai reliability method, being suitable risks evaluation variety sustainable systems, experiencing nonlinear, potentially throughout their designed service life. main advantage advocated methodology its ability tackle simultaneously large number dynamic systems' degrees freedom, corresponding system's critical components.

Язык: Английский

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FPSO/LNG hawser system lifetime assessment by Gaidai multivariate risk assessment method

Energy Informatics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7(1)

Опубликована: Июль 2, 2024

Abstract Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) unit being an offshore vessel, storing producing crude oil, prior to oil transported by accompanying shuttle tanker. Critical mooring/hawser strains during offloading operation have be accurately predicted, in order maintain operational safety reliability. During certain types of offloading, excessive hawser tensions may occur, causing risks. Current study examines FPSO vessel’s dynamic reactions hydrodynamic wave-induced loads, given realistic situ environmental conditions, utilizing the AQWA software package. advocates novel multi-dimensional spatiotemporal risks assessment approach, that is particularly well suited for large dataset analysis, based on numerical simulations (or measurements). Advocated multivariate reliability methodology useful a variety marine systems must endure severe stressors their intended lifespan. Methodology, presented this provides advanced capability efficiently, yet evaluate system failure, hazard damage risks, representative record multidimensional system’s inter-correlated critical components. Gaidai risk method lifetime methodology. In validate benchmark method, it was applied potentially LNG (i.e., Liquid Natural Gas) vessels dynamics. Major advantage advocated approach there are no existing alternative methods, able tackle unlimited number dimensions. Accurate had been carried out, numerically simulated data, partially verified available laboratory experiments. Confidence intervals predicted high-dimensional levels.

Язык: Английский

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FPSO/FLNG mooring system evaluation by Gaidai reliability method

Journal of Marine Science and Technology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 29(3), С. 546 - 555

Опубликована: Июнь 21, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Limit hypersurface state of the art Gaidai multivariate risk evaluation approach for offshore Jacket

Mechanics Based Design of Structures and Machines, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown, С. 1 - 16

Опубликована: Июль 16, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Multivariate ocean waves dynamics in North Sea and Norwegian Sea by Gaidai reliability method

Energy Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 12, С. 2346 - 2355

Опубликована: Авг. 23, 2024

Current study presents state-of-the-art approach for evaluating spatiotemporal multivariate environmental risks, especially suitable complex systems that have been either numerically simulated or physically observed. Advocated methodology provides accurate hazard risk forecasts, based on real-time in situ data. Design of offshore structures requires assessment – and naval operations require both short- long-term reliability analyses. Contemporary evaluation techniques often struggle with raw timeseries data due to intrinsic multidimensionality nonlinear interconnections among critical system's dimensions/components. In the current effectiveness Gaidai method is illustrated by utilizing significant wave heights dataset, measured within two zones: Heidrun Troll Norwegian oil fields. Analyzing waves being particularly challenging their complexity, high nonlinearity, multidimensionality, yet dynamic inter-correlations. Global warming several factors, affecting ocean sea heights. For naval, marine operating harsh weather conditions, robust methods crucial design safe operations. aims validate benchmark methodology, enabling extraction. allows efficient global damages, failures risks a wide range energy systems. Primary advantage presented lies its ability treat practically unlimited number dimensions, while existing mostly limited univariate bivariate

Язык: Английский

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Evaluating Areal Windspeeds and Wave Heights by Gaidai Risk Evaluation Method

Natural Hazards Review, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 25(4)

Опубликована: Авг. 2, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Wind turbine gearbox reliability verification by multivariate Gaidai reliability method

Results in Engineering, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 23, С. 102689 - 102689

Опубликована: Авг. 8, 2024

Reliability research is essential since WT (Wind turbines) are built to endure high wind and wave-induced stresses. Novel multivariate 2D (bivariate) reliability methods presented in this investigation being conceived by authors assist designers accurately assessment of crucial stressors, acting inside key mechanical parts, such as gearbox drivetrain. Current study made use the recently created modified Weibull-type approach. Since statistical analysis takes into consideration cross-correlations between various system components, it more suited for design than univariate analysis. To cross-validate 10-MW semi-submersible type FWT (i.e., Floating Wind Turbine) failure or damage probability, forecasted Gaidai methodology, current employed Weibull Typical load types that FWTs related parts prone, include longitudinal, bending, twisting, cyclic Stochastic nature environmental loads, on terms windspeed, direction, shear, vorticity may cause excessive nonlinear structural dynamic effects, hence components like drivetrain necessary. In dynamic, structural, aerodynamic, control aspects had been modeled, using advanced numerical techniques – dynamics has modeled utilizing SIMPACK (Multibody Simulation Method) software. risk approach provided a reliable evaluation coupled drivetrain's dynamics, given return periods interest. Weakness bivariate highlighted, comprehensive solution form novel method.

Язык: Английский

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Shuttle tanker operational reliability study by Gaidai multivariate risk assessment method, utilizing deconvolution scheme

Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 26, С. 101194 - 101194

Опубликована: Июль 1, 2024

FPSO (Floating Production, Storage and Offloading) or FLNG Liquefied Natural Gas) vessels produce store crude oil liquified natural gas before being transported by ST (Shuttle Tanker). Robust prediction of excessive mooring hawser stresses crucial for structural design operational safety. Offloading activities may result in line tensions, impacting environmental Current study employed ANSYS-AQWA software to simulate dynamics, subjected wind-wave hydrodynamic loads, given realistic in-situ conditions. State-of-the-art multi-dimensional risk assessment methodology, presented this work based on direct MC (Monte Carlo) simulations, however, it is equally applicable measured data. Advocated methodology effectively utilizes underlying dataset, offering accurate failure/damage assessment. aims benchmark recently developed multivariate Gaidai approach, allowing the straightforward yet efficient failure damage risks nonlinear dynamic offshore/naval system as a whole. Primary benefit proposed lies its multi-dimensionality, can encompass virtually infinite number system's dimensions/components, each having distinct physical dimension. In contrast, traditional reliability methods are usually limited maximum two-dimensional systems. Novel deconvolution extrapolation scheme offers additional advantage, non-parametrical nature, opposed existing parametric techniques.

Язык: Английский

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