Evaluation of precipitation simulations in CMIP6 models over Uganda

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 41(9), С. 4743 - 4768

Опубликована: Март 16, 2021

Abstract This study employed 15 CMIP6 GCMs and evaluated their ability to simulate rainfall over Uganda during 1981–2014. The models the ensemble mean were assessed based on reproduce annual climatology, seasonal distribution trend. Statistical metrics used include bias error, normalized root square pattern correlation coefficient. Taylor diagram skill score (TSS) in ranking models. models' performance varies greatly from one season other. reproduced observed bimodal of March May (MAM) September November (SON) occurring region. Some slightly overestimated, while some underestimated, MAM rainfall. However, there was a high overestimation SON by most showed positive spatial with dataset, whereas low shown inter‐annually. could not capture patterns around local‐scale features, for example, Lake Victoria basin mountainous areas. best performing identified GFDL‐ESM4, CanESM5, CESM2‐WACCM, MRI‐ESM2‐0, NorESM2‐LM, UKESM1‐0‐LL, CNRM‐CM6‐1. CNRM‐CM6‐1, CNRM‐ESM2 underestimated throughout cycle climatology. these two better trends both SON. Caution should be taken when employing climate change studies as another. model spread area also calls further investigation attributions possible implementation robust approaches machine learning minimize biases.

Язык: Английский

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The Climatic Analysis of Summer Monsoon Extreme Precipitation Events over West Africa in CMIP6 Simulations

Earth Systems and Environment, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 5(1), С. 25 - 41

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2021

Abstract We evaluate the capability of 21 models from new state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) in representation present-day precipitation characteristics and extremes along with their statistics simulating daily during West African Monsoon (WAM) period (June–September). The study uses a set standard extreme indices as defined by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices constructed using CMIP6 observational datasets for comparison. Three observations; Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), Hazards Group InfraRed Station data (CHIRPS), Tropical Applications Meteorology SATellite ground-based observation (TAMSAT) are used validation model simulations. results show that observed present nearly same spatial pattern but discrepancies magnitude rainfall characteristics. substantial comparison observations among themselves. A number depict intensity some overestimate over coastal parts (FGOALS-f3-L GFDL-ESM4) western part (FGOALS-f3-L) Africa. All simulations explicitly wet days large frequencies. On rainfall, half express more intense 95th percentiles while other simulate less extremes. mean maximum spell length except FGOALS-f3-L. patterns dry good general agreement across different models, four an overestimation Sahara subregion. INM-CM4-8 INM-CM5-0 display smaller long-term average characteristics, terms estimates than datasets. For frequency heavy TaiESM1 IPSL-CMGA-LR perform better when compared MIROC6 GFDL-ESM4 displayed largest error representing percentile extremes, therefore, cannot be reliable. has assessed how captured both models. Though there discrepancies, it gives room improvement next version CMIP.

Язык: Английский

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Inter‐comparison of historical simulation and future projections of rainfall and temperature by CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs over Egypt

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 42(8), С. 4316 - 4332

Опубликована: Ноя. 29, 2021

Abstract The global climate models (GCMs) performances of the recently released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) compared to its predecessor, CMIP5, are evaluated anticipate expected changes in over Egypt. Thirteen GCMs and their multi‐model ensemble (MME) both CMIPs were used for this purpose. future projections two radiative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 8.5) shared socio‐economic (SSP 2–4.5 5–8.5). results revealed improvement most CMIP6 replicating historical rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) climatology MME that could reproduce Egypt's spatial distribution seasonal variability. However, bias CMIP5 was higher than CMIP6. uncertainties simulating variability rainfall temperatures lower CMIP5. projection using a reduction precipitation (10–26 mm) economically crucial northern region estimated (0–17 mm), 133.5 mm base period. also projected 0.74–1.63°C more rise Tmax Tmin by end century. study indicates aggravated scenarios Egypt anticipated earlier, models. Therefore, needs streamline existing adaptation mitigation measures account projections.

Язык: Английский

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Performance evaluation of CMIP6 global climate models for selecting models for climate projection over Nigeria

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 146(1-2), С. 599 - 615

Опубликована: Авг. 24, 2021

Язык: Английский

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Spatiotemporal differences and uncertainties in projections of precipitation and temperature in South Korea from CMIP6 and CMIP5 general circulation models

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 41(13), С. 5899 - 5919

Опубликована: Апрель 29, 2021

Abstract This study compared the historical simulations and future projections of precipitation temperature Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)5 CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) to quantify differences in due scenarios. Five performance indicators were used model reproducibility observed levels at 22 stations for period 1970–2005. The percentages change estimated near (2025–2060) far (2065–2100) two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 RCP8.5 scenarios CMIP5 Shared Socioeconomic (SSP)2–4.5 SSP5‐8.5 CMIP6. uncertainty projection each case was calculated using reliability ensemble average (REA) method. As a result, GCMs showed an improvement with regard ability simulate climate. higher SSPs than that RCPs. With temperature, RCPs SSPs. means changes both contributes confidence bolsters our understanding relative

Язык: Английский

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