Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 155(5), С. 3927 - 3949
Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2024
Язык: Английский
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 155(6), С. 5417 - 5431
Опубликована: Апрель 8, 2024
Abstract This research presents a seasonal analysis of the variability streamflows in Patía River Basin (PRB) between 1984 and 2018 influence exerted by large-scale climate using non-linear principal component (NLPCA), Pearson's correlation, composite analysis. The study was conduced during minimum (July–August–September, JAS) maximum (October–November–December, OND) streamflow periods. NLPCA depicted single significant mode for each season with explained variances greater than 75%. correlation main OND indices showed results, mainly Pacific Ocean El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In contrast, JAS, correlations were linked to Atlantic Ocean. Finally, indicated that positive (negative) events which show increase (decrease) PRB, are related negative (positive) anomalies Tropical Northern band, including Caribbean Sea Gulf Mexico. comparison, sea surface temperature (SST) tropical Pacific, corresponding La Niña (El Niño) events. results provide evidence strong SST on PRB establish foundations modelling, relevant prevention risk management as well adequate planning water resources region.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
2
International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 44(11), С. 3955 - 3975
Опубликована: Июль 26, 2024
Abstract Studies related to monitoring changes in frequency, intensity and duration of precipitation extremes are key creating efficient climate change measures forest conservation policies. This study describes new insights into rainfall over the Amazon basin (AB) during last four decades (1981–2021) from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPSv2). Here we analysed trends daily extreme indices proposed by Expert Team on Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI) at seasonal scale, using trend‐empirical orthogonal function (TEOF). Our results indicate that frequency increased Peruvian Amazonia northeastern Brazilian Amazonia, reduced centre AB, mainly first seasons year: December–January–February (DJF) March–April–May (MAM). The cooling trend eastern central tropical Pacific warming western subtropical could associate increase DJF. Furthermore, June–July–August (JJA) September–October–November (SON), showed a decrease Colombia Bolivian Amazon; contrast, northern southern Peru delivered an pattern. pattern JJA SON be associated most North Atlantic 40°–60° S band. demonstrate AB have spatially varying trends. These heterogeneous space might take account for robust adaptation policies countries parts such as Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Perú, Surinam Venezuela.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
2
Discover Atmosphere, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 2(1)
Опубликована: Авг. 13, 2024
Abstract The southeastern region of Nigeria is susceptible to flood disasters primarily triggered by extreme precipitation with localized impacts. This study uses the output High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) Coupled Phase 6 (CMIP6) investigate seasonal dependent changes in extremes near future (2031–2050) Anambra-Imo River Basin, Nigeria. Evaluating models against observation for 1995–2014 period, it found that reproduced spatial pattern observed annual over river basin. Results show future, will be characterized a robust increase total amount (PRCPTOT), maximum 5-day (RX5day), and heavy (R10mm). project significant PRCPTOT, RX5day, R10mm, wet-day intensity (SDII) June–July–August (JJA) September–October–November (SON) seasons. results demonstrate higher magnitude during SON season. Specifically, R10mm SDII are projected up 46 mm, 24 1.2 days 2.4 mm/day, respectively. Whereas March–April-May (MAM) season, HighResMIP suggests marginally eastern part Basin. Besides, December–January–February (DJF) season marginal extremes, especially southern fringes We note basin more intense less frequent JJA SON, potentially exacerbating flash flooding Hence, this may vital near-term socio-economic planning policy decisions minimize impact
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
2
International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 43(14), С. 6621 - 6642
Опубликована: Авг. 23, 2023
Abstract We analysed the current climate of seven winegrowing regions Mexico and their possible changes during 21st century. Various bioclimatic indices were calculated with observations simulations over a wide domain that covers south southwest United States. used two regional models (RegCM4.7 RCA4) for historical (1981–2010), near future (NF: 2021–2050) far (FF: 2070–2099) periods under greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP2.6 RCP8.5). Both reproduced main characteristics Mediterranean semiarid climates typical winegrape some biases. Despite errors, suggest similar growing season (GS: April–October) in regions. Increases temperature (~1.2°C) are expected NF, which could produce an early start from growth (mid‐March) to harvest. More significant FF RCP8.5 scenario; April–October may increase ~4°C, degree‐days (GDD) minimum also (~700 4.5°C, respectively), especially northern Mexican high plateau, substantially reducing suitable areas viticulture. In Baja California (BC) years viticulture decline by 30%–50%, suggesting interannual uncertainty. Moreover, BC number cool nights (Tmin < 12°C) be reduced harvest (September) affecting acidity flavour. Therefore, sector wine industry need implement adaptation/mitigation measures overcome these phenology shifts.
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
4
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 155(5), С. 3927 - 3949
Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2024
Язык: Английский
Процитировано
1