Analysis of crop suitability index for current and future climates using statistically downscaled CMIP6 outputs over Africa

Meteorological Applications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 32(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

Abstract The study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on crop suitability index (CSI) selected staple crops for current (1981–2010) and future (2021–2050 2051–2080) climates across Africa. Precipitation mean temperature data from gridded observations, 10 Global Climate Models (GCMs) were utilized calculate CSI maize, soybean, wheat, plantain, cassava, rice, millet, sorghum, yam. Ecocrop model implemented in R, utilizing FAO‐Ecocrop database alongside climatic variables different zones continent, was employed compute CSI. results indicate that all crops, except rain‐fed are suitable parts West Central African regions, with wheat being inclusive some Guinea Coast. northern, eastern, southern regions identified as least any production based balance between base parameters over historical period. Analysis this period reveals an increasing trend major most production, which demonstrates a decreasing areas. Projection analysis Sahel region is expected be affected by change, significant reduction crops. Conversely, Southeastern Africa Coast likely affected, increases considered This provides crucial information effective agricultural planning resource allocation, optimizing land use identifying aligned prevailing environmental conditions, including soil type, climate, water availability. Such enhances understanding suitability, contributing improved productivity sustainability.

Язык: Английский

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The Investigation of Trends and Wet and Dry Rainfall Cycles in North Africa (In Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia) (1970–2023)

Geosciences, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 15(3), С. 80 - 80

Опубликована: Фев. 22, 2025

IPCC climate forecast models, applicable to the Maghreb countries (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia), predict a decrease in atmospheric precipitation, greater variability, an increase aridity. In recent years, entire region has been experiencing unprecedented upheavals. Climatic droughts have become increasingly severe recurrent (drastically reducing water stocks). We are also witnessing remarkable temperatures frequency of heat waves. Faced with these new provisions, this territory (long considered area stress) is now subject very strong tensions, which led demand for supply. To understand intensity “climate–water” crisis, we propose analysis priority issue based on evolution precipitation over more than half century records. determine trends define rainfall cycles three countries, graphical chronological method information processing (MGCTI) “BERTIN Matrix” type used. Annual totals from 29 stations were used MGCTI (chronological graphic processing) period 1970–2023. These data come national meteorological networks National Meteorological Office (ONM) Institute Meteorology (NIM) Tunisia, Directorate (DMN) Morocco, websites Data Center (NCDC) “TuTiempo Network”. Monthly pluviometric stations, Dar El Beida (Algeria), Casablanca (Morocco), Tunis (Tunisia), as well monthly NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) MOI (Mediterranean Oscillation Index) wavelet coherence 1970–2022. shows that four extreme (dry wet). The last dry was remarkably intense sharp stress throughout region. An (Casablanca, Beida, Tunis) using highlighted close relationship “NAO” “MOI” circulation.

Язык: Английский

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Projected changes in extreme rainfall events over West Africa and its sub-regions: a multi-scenario climate analysis

Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 137(4)

Опубликована: Май 28, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Assessment of Historical and Future Mean and Extreme Precipitation Over Sub‐Saharan Africa Using NEX‐GDDP‐CMIP6: Part I—Evaluation of Historical Simulation

International Journal of Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 45(2)

Опубликована: Дек. 5, 2024

ABSTRACT This study assesses the performance of 28 NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX‐GDDP‐CMIP6) models and their multi‐model ensemble (MME) in simulating mean extreme precipitation across sub‐Saharan Africa from 1985 to 2014. The Multi‐Source Weighted‐Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) Hazards Group InfraRed with Station Data (CHIRPS) are used as reference datasets. Various statistical metrics such bias (MB), spatial correlation coefficients (SCCs), Taylor skill scores (TSS) comprehensive ranking index (CRI) employed evaluate NEX‐GDDP‐CMIP6 at both annual seasonal scales. Results show that can reproduce observed cycle all subregions, model spread within observational uncertainties. MME also successfully reproduces distribution precipitation, achieving SCCs TSSs greater than 0.8 subregions. biases consistent different However, most trends opposite observations. While generally its varies dataset, particularly for number rainy days (RR1) maximum consecutive dry (CDD). TSS values indices differ significantly by region, data index, lowest over South Central highest West Southern Africa. CRI indicates no single consistently outperforms others even same when compared MSWEP CHIRPS. These results may be helpful using future projections impact assessment studies

Язык: Английский

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How Do CMIP6 HighResMIP Models Perform in Simulating Precipitation Extremes over East Africa?

Hydrology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 11(7), С. 106 - 106

Опубликована: Июль 20, 2024

This work assesses the ability of nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) High-Resolution (HighResMIP) models and their ensemble mean to reproduce precipitation extremes over East Africa for period 1995–2014. The model datasets are assessed against two observation datasets: CHIRPS GPCC. indices considered CDD, CWD, R1mm, R10mm, R20mm, SDII, R95p, PRCPTOT, Rx1day. overall results show that HighResMIP annual variability fairly well; however, certain consistent biases found across models, which tend overestimate CWD R1mm underestimate CDD SDII. ranked using Taylor diagram Skill Score. reasonably simulate indices, such as CDD; simulation SDII R20mm is generally poor. They CMCC-CM2-VHR4, HadGEM31-MM, HadGEM3-GC31-HM, GFDL-CM4. Conversely, MPI-ESM1-2-XR MPI-ESM1-2-HR remarkable performance in simulating OND season while underestimating MAM season. A comparative analysis demonstrates MME has better accuracy than individual various indices. findings present study important establish data extreme events and, thus, help decision making. However, caution should be exercised interpretation based on CMIP6 given weakness observed reproducing precipitation.

Язык: Английский

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Amplification of compound hot-dry extremes and associated population exposure over East Africa

Climatic Change, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 177(9)

Опубликована: Сен. 1, 2024

Язык: Английский

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Evaluating NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 performance in complex terrain for forecasting key freezing rain factors

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Год журнала: 2024, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Сен. 14, 2024

Язык: Английский

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