Characterizing Compound Inland Flooding Mechanisms and Risks in North America Under Climate Change DOI Creative Commons
Mohammad Fereshtehpour, Mohammad Reza Najafi, Alex J. Cannon

и другие.

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 13(2)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Abstract Compound inland flooding (CIF) arises from the concurrent interaction of multiple hydrometeorological drivers. In this study, we characterize key CIF events across North America, including two preconditioned events, rain‐on‐snow (ROS) and saturation excess (SEF) for historical baseline conditions global warming levels 1.5, 2, 4°C relative to preindustrial level. Utilizing high emission climate scenario (RCP8.5) CanRCM4‐LE with 50 members, frequency seasonality compound along probability these leading heavy runoff, role external forcing internal variability are assessed. We convert identified hazards into risk by integrating them exposure vulnerability components. The results suggest that as temperatures increase, overall ROS in causing significant runoff is projected decrease compared individual rainfall. Concurrently, impact SEF occurrences become more pronounced. signal‐to‐noise ratio highlights a high‐confidence change signal events; however, uncertainty related future projections joint These underscore need consider mechanisms, dynamics, risks associated CIFs within systematic approaches flood management.

Язык: Английский

Characterizing Compound Inland Flooding Mechanisms and Risks in North America Under Climate Change DOI Creative Commons
Mohammad Fereshtehpour, Mohammad Reza Najafi, Alex J. Cannon

и другие.

Earth s Future, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 13(2)

Опубликована: Фев. 1, 2025

Abstract Compound inland flooding (CIF) arises from the concurrent interaction of multiple hydrometeorological drivers. In this study, we characterize key CIF events across North America, including two preconditioned events, rain‐on‐snow (ROS) and saturation excess (SEF) for historical baseline conditions global warming levels 1.5, 2, 4°C relative to preindustrial level. Utilizing high emission climate scenario (RCP8.5) CanRCM4‐LE with 50 members, frequency seasonality compound along probability these leading heavy runoff, role external forcing internal variability are assessed. We convert identified hazards into risk by integrating them exposure vulnerability components. The results suggest that as temperatures increase, overall ROS in causing significant runoff is projected decrease compared individual rainfall. Concurrently, impact SEF occurrences become more pronounced. signal‐to‐noise ratio highlights a high‐confidence change signal events; however, uncertainty related future projections joint These underscore need consider mechanisms, dynamics, risks associated CIFs within systematic approaches flood management.

Язык: Английский

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