Extreme rainfall and landslides as a response to human-induced climate change: a case study at Baixada Santista, Brazil, 2020
Abstract
In
March
2020,
an
extreme
rainfall
in
Baixada
Santista,
Brazil,
led
to
a
series
of
landslides
affecting
more
than
2,800
people
and
resulting
losses
exceeding
USD
43
million.
This
attribution
study
compared
two
distinct
runs
from
the
UK
Met
Office
Hadley
Centre
HadGEM3-GA6
model:
one
with
all
forcings
other
natural
only,
considering
antecedent
conditions
soil
moisture
(extreme
60-day
rainfall,
Rx60day)
heavy
3-day
Rx3day)
which
may
trigger
landslides.
The
long-term
set-up
became
74%
likely,
while
short-term
was
46%
likely.
anthropogenic
contribution
changes
accounted
for
20-42%
total
damages.
greatest
economic
occurred
Guarujá
(42%),
followed
by
São
Vicente
(30%)
Santos
(28%).
Landslides
were
responsible
47%
homes
damaged,
85%
destroyed,
reported
injuries,
51%
deaths
associated
rainfall.
Changes
land
cover
increased
urbanization
showed
pronounced
increase
urbanized
area
(107%),
(61.7%)
(36.9%)
reduction
farming
area.
Population
growth
estimates
also
indicate
higher
exposure
events.
proportion
irregular
and/or
precarious
housing
indicates
vulnerability,
being
municipality
highest
number
(34.8%)
dwellings
this
type.
Our
suggest
that
precipitation
events
are
having
shorter
return
periods
due
climate
change
population
is
exposing
these
These
findings
especially
important
decision-makers
context
disaster
risk
mitigation
adaptation
change.
Research Square (Research Square), Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown
Опубликована: Сен. 21, 2023
Язык: Английский
